In the Melbourne quarterfinals, the world No. 2 will face the American he has beaten in their last eight meetings

They say that to break a curse, you must first and foremost rely on reason and a change of perspective. Well, Ben Shelton has recently been trying to do both. Especially since he likely wasn’t smiling after discovering that the Melbourne draw might pit him against Sinner yet again. A nemesis—a player who hasn’t let him win a single set in over two years. So the American shared his strategy for getting the better of Jannik a few days ago, after his victory over Vacherot: “I’m making some adjustments; I’m doing everything really well. I feel like I’m able to vary the pace more with my backhand and be more precise with my serve and forehand. And then, when I play on a stage like this, I get fired up.” Sinner, too, no doubt.

Big Ben wants to say “Stop.” Stop the bleeding—not just of losses, but also of sets lost to the Italian. The current Sinner-Shelton record stands at 8-1. The American had plenty of chances last season to write a different story: four head-to-head matches, from the first Grand Slam of the year to the Turin Finals. Yet he came up short in all four instances, never managing to take even a single set. And yet, in 2025, Shelton achieved the first major breakthroughs of his career: a permanent spot in the top 10, his debut at the Finals, but above all, his first 1000-level title in Canada. As he himself admitted after his victory in the round of 16 in Melbourne against Ruud, “I’ve become a fighter; I feel like I’ve grown. And I have no intention of stopping the process here.” Sinner will be the litmus test of his growth, just like last year.

Good luck charm?—  Yes, because whenever the Italian has faced off against Ben, he’s often stepped up his game and never looked back. Shelton has long since become his lucky charm: in fact, on the last five occasions, after a victory over the American, Sinner went on to win the title. It happened in Shanghai 2024 and then in every match last year: the Australian Open semifinals, the Wimbledon quarterfinals, the quarterfinals at the Paris 1000, and the round-robin stage at the Turin Finals. One impressive performance after another, even though we’re talking about an opponent Jannik always takes with a grain of salt. Because, as he said at Indian Wells a couple of years ago, before their third matchup: “He serves well, he has a great touch. He plays a good forehand and backhand. And then he’s a lefty…”. Not only that: Shelton is no longer an outsider near the top of the rankings, but someone who, for at least two seasons now, has been tipped to eventually shift into high gear and close in on the Big Two, turning them into the Big Three. In 2025, he gave a small taste of that potential, but now he needs a major victory. Like that time in Shanghai.
How many tiebreaks—  True, at first Sinner didn’t seem like he’d be a thorn in the American’s side. In fact, in China, Shelton surprisingly came out on top: in the 2023 edition, he clinched the match in the third-set tiebreak. Speaking of which: 6-6 has become a remarkable routine in their matchups, given that in 8 of their 9 meetings, the score has reached that point at least once. The only time that didn’t work for the Italian? In Paris a few months ago: there, Sinner closed it out with a 6-3, 6-3 victory. So yes, it’s true that Shelton is someone to be taken with a grain of salt: consistently pushing Jannik to a tiebreak is, after all, a rare feat.

precision and ruthlessness—  Shelton has often struggled with inaccuracy in his matches against the Italian: his powerful left-hander has at times become uncontrollable even for him, when faced with Sinner’s calm strength, which has often sensed his lapses in concentration to punish him just when he’s at his best. Like in Shanghai 2024: seven break points conceded by the South Tyrolean, all saved. On the other side of the net: one break point conceded by Ben, promptly turned into gold by Jannik. A surgeon’s precision, worthy of a champion. Another masterclass at Wimbledon six months ago, this time showcasing precision: Sinner committed 17 unforced errors throughout the match, while Shelton had more than double that (38). Same story at the last Australian Open: 26 unforced errors by Jannik, 55 by the American, who started running on empty after the first hard-fought set (which lasted 72 minutes and ended in a tiebreak). It’s details like these that he needs to focus on to bridge a gap that’s anything but trivial. He knows this well and is taking it in stride: “A match against Sinner is exactly what you’d expect. Last year in Melbourne, I didn’t do so well against him. But I assure you, I’ve worked hard.” We’ll see.