On Thursday, we’ll find out who our first opponent will be on the road to the World Cup
A playoff is an inelastic collision: the bodies that collide change shape after the impact. Italy has tasted its destructive effects, first in 2017 and then in 2022, failing to qualify for the World Cup twice in a row. By now, however, it’s pointless to dwell on past mistakes, just as it’s anachronistic to reflect on a FIFA regulation that has deprived European soccer of its traditional central role. The only thing that matters is achieving the goal in the two matches to be played on March 26 and, hopefully, March 31.
We’ll find out our path on Thursday during the draw in Zurich, knowing that we’ll play the semifinal at home. In three days, the potential opponents for a possible final will also be revealed; that match will always be a single-game knockout contest, with home-field advantage determined by the draw. Three years ago, it was North Macedonia, with the worrying prospect of having to play for a spot in Qatar on Portuguese soil. Mancini didn’t even make it to the final. This time, the mindset must be different, as Gattuso points out: we need to focus on one match at a time, without letting our ambitions run ahead of reality.
The bogeyman— As a top seed based on ranking, Italy will face one of the fourth-tier teams in the semifinals. The problem, however, is that this tier includes the national teams eliminated in the qualifiers that achieved the most impressive results in the Nations League. Among these, the most dangerous is Sweden, which has entrusted its revival to Englishman Graham Potter and earned just 1 point in its group. How is that possible? The media report some internal disagreements, which led to the firing of former Milan player Tomasson, but the team has been hampered by the physical issues of its two star players: forwards Gyokeres and Isak moved to Arsenal and Liverpool this summer for a combined fee exceeding 200 million euros, but were unable to make a contribution. Gyokeres played in four matches; Isak started just one. By March, however, it’s conceivable that both will be in good form: imagine if Italy had faced Norway without Haaland and Sorloth…
The others— In short, it’s best to avoid Sweden, and not just because of the terrifying precedent from 2017. A rematch with North Macedonia would be much more comfortable, if anything—provided, of course, that North Macedonia is defeated in the… playoff for the playoff against Wales. Otherwise, the British would be among the four potential opponents, though they don’t seem insurmountable. And speaking of the United Kingdom: another possible semifinal matchup is Italy vs. Northern Ireland, which brings back other embarrassing—albeit long-ago—memories, namely the elimination from the 1958 World Cup. It’s the underdog of the bunch. Even weaker than Romania, the last option, which, like Sweden, was repêchaged from the Nations League. They can be beaten, despite the tactical wizardry of the old fox Lucescu, because they’re no longer Hagi’s team. Well, actually, they are—the team of his son Ianis, who inherited the number 10 jersey: with all due respect, it’s not the same thing.
