A worthy final

It’s not always the case that the two best teams in a long tournament make it to the final. But at the 2022 World Water Polo Championships in Hungary, that should be the case. The selection teams from Italy and Spain will battle it out for the gold medal in the grand final on Sunday. Both finalists have shown themselves to be absolutely worthy of the title during the course of the tournament so far.

We venture a brief look back at the last World Cup in 2019 in Gwangju, South Korea. At that time, the teams from Italy and Spain also faced each other. Therefore, there will be a rematch of the last final on Sunday at the National Swimming Complex in Budapest. Three years ago, the Italians won by a clear 10:5 and have since become record world champions with four titles.

Now in Hungary, however, the Spaniards were arguably the best team of the tournament. Among other things, there was already the encounter between the two finalists in the preliminary round. There, the Furia Roja prevailed and also on Sunday, in this grand final between Italy and Spain, the prediction goes more in the direction of the Iberians.

We had already hinted at it in the course of the World Championships. The focus of the world’s top water polo teams has shifted from the Balkans to south-western Europe.

Italy – Statistics & current form

Italy’s title hamsters could strike again this year at the World Cup, apparently the Setebello’s favourite competition. Four times the Italians have secured the gold medal at a World Cup and even though Alessandro Campagna’s side lost to Spain in the group stage, they will be at their best on Sunday.

With world-class keeper to final

The team around super keeper Marco del Lungo has won four of the last five matches. Sure, the match against South Africa was just a formality. Then the match against Canada fell apart before they lost their rhythm a little and picked up a 12:14 defeat against Spain, although the match could well have gone either way.

In the knockout rounds, however, the Italians were back in full force. In the round of 16, the match against the Aussie Sharks, who had reached the World Cup quarter-finals four times in a row, was just a formality. Afterwards, however, the Setebello might have knocked the big tournament favourites out of the competition with Hungary in the quarter-finals. As expected, the semi-final against Greece was close.

In the end, Alessandro Campagna’s team prevailed 11:10. Vincenzo Dolce from Brescia was the most successful thrower in the offensive with three goals. Marco del Lungo was once again the hero of the day with almost 60 percent of the shots blocked. With a keeper like that, you certainly can’t neglect the odds on sub-par goals in the duel between Italy and Spain.

Predicted line-up of Italy:
del Lungo, Nicosia – di Fulvio, Damonte, Iocchi Gratta, Fondelli, Cannella, Marziali, Echenique, Presciutti, Bruni, di Somma, Dolce – Campagna

Spain – Statistics & current form

There is no doubt that the Spaniards arguably put in the best performance at the World Cup in Hungary. David Lozano Martin’s team scored the most goals and was also generally outstanding in defence. Spanish water polo fans will therefore be hoping to celebrate their third World Cup title in 21 years, after 1998 and 2001.

Only undefeated team

Around Barcelona, where the heart of Spanish water polo beats, the euphoria is great. But the Furia Roja has also ignited it with great performances, as the Spaniards are the only team to have remained unbeaten so far in this World Cup and the Iberians have also had to overcome some strong opponents. From the preliminary round, the victory against Italy remains in the memory.

In the two knockout matches, they first had to beat Montenegro, where the Spaniards had more problems than they would have liked in their 7:6 victory. The Furia Roja then showed their strength again in the semifinals against the surprisingly strong Croatians. At the break, the Spaniards were 7:5 ahead and did not allow a single Croatian goal in the last two quarters.

Spain thus offered absolute world class on the offensive and on the defensive and won against the Barracudas in the end with 10:5. Once again, Alvaro Granados Ortega was the Furia Roja’s safest shooter with four goals. With Unai Aguirre, who even managed to block 71 percent of the Croatian shots, the Spaniards also had pure world class between the posts. We therefore stick to our prediction of few goals between Italy and Spain.

Predicted Spain line-up:
Aguirre, Lorrio – Munarriz Egana, Granados Ortega, Sanahuja, de Toro Dominguez, Larumbe Gonfaus, Famera, Cabanas Pegado, Tahull Compte, Perrone Rocha, Mallarach, Guell, Bustos Sanchez – Coach: Martin Lozano

Italy – Spain Direct comparison / H2H-Balance

After adding one more match in the group stage of the World Cup now coming to an end, Italy and Spain have a total of 17 duels in the last ten years. A look at the direct comparison makes it clear that both teams have been playing on the same level for years, as the Italians only hold a razor-thin 9:8 lead after victories.

Before the World Cup in Hungary, the Italians had the better end on their side three times. Among other things, the Setebello won the final of the 2019 World Cup in Gwangju. In addition, there was then a victory in the World League and in a test match. In Sopron, however, the Spaniards now won 14:12 in the preliminary round, although it looked like a draw until shortly before the end when the score was 12:12.

Italy – Spain Tip

Of course, we have to base our analysis on the group match between Italy and Spain, which the Iberians won 14:12. In addition, the Furia Roja has the best attack at this World Cup and one of the best goalkeepers in Unai Aguirre. These are the ingredients for becoming world champions in the end.

In this respect, things look very similar for the Italians. However, Setebello will have in mind that they just lost to Spain. That could be an incentive for them to go one better. But perhaps the respect for the Iberians will be too great.

The Italians know how to win big games. In the Champions League, the Italian champions Pro Recco dominate and many Italian players have already become world champions once. The Spaniards have yet to prove that they can win the grand finals. From there we decided to play the betting odds on the Setebello winning the title between Italy and Spain.