Jannik, even if only for a week, could once again leapfrog the Spaniard. That’s why the 2003-born player isn’t yet certain to finish 2025 at the top

By winning the ATP 500 in Vienna, Jannik Sinner took the first step toward attempting the seemingly impossible feat of returning to No. 1 by the end of 2025. The Italian has chipped away 500 points from Carlos Alcaraz—who hasn’t played in any official tournaments since his trip to Tokyo—narrowing the gap to under 1,000 points. Sinner now has 10,500 points, compared to the Spaniard’s 11,340, so in Monday’s updated rankings, the gap between the two stands at 840 points. Jannik and Carlos will face off this week at the year’s final Masters 1000 tournament in Paris, at the new venue in Nanterre, where the Spaniard will defend the 100 points he earned in the 2024 round of 16. Points that the Spanish star will lose in the rankings on Monday, November 3. In the live rankings, therefore, Sinner trails Alcaraz by 740 points.

To return to world No. 1 at the end of the French tournament, the Italian must win his first 1000-point event of the year, climbing to 11,500 points, and hope that the Spaniard is eliminated before the semifinals (if Alcaraz reaches the quarterfinals, he would reach 11,440 points). There are no other scenarios for Jannik other than victory. In any case, Sinner would return to No. 1 in the world for only one week, since on Monday, November 10, in the rankings updated before the results of the Finals, the points earned in Turin in 2024 will be deducted: 1,500 from Jannik and 200 from the Murcian, who, despite everything, is still not certain to finish the year at No. 1 for the second time in his career.