On Thursday, we will find out who our first opponent will be on the road to the World Cup
The playoffs are like an inelastic collision: the bodies that collide change shape after the collision. Italy has tasted its destructive effects, first in 2017 and then in 2022, failing to qualify for the World Cup twice in a row. However, it is now pointless to dwell on past mistakes, just as it is anachronistic to reflect on FIFA regulations that have deprived European football of its traditional centrality. The only thing that matters is achieving the goal in the two matches to be played on March 26 and, hopefully, March 31.
We will find out the path on Thursday, in the draw in Zurich, knowing that we will play the semi-final at home. In three days’ time, the potential opponents for the final will also be revealed, which will always be a single match with the home advantage decided by the draw. Three years ago, it was North Macedonia with the worrying prospect of playing Qatar at Portugal’s home ground. Mancini didn’t even make it to the final. This time, the mentality must be different, as Gattuso points out: we need to focus on one event at a time, without projecting our ambitions beyond reality.
Scarecrow— As a seeded team, Italy will face one of the fourth-seeded teams in the semifinals. The problem, however, is that this group includes the national teams that were eliminated in the qualifiers but achieved the most gratifying results in the Nations League. Among these, the most dangerous is Sweden, which entrusted its revival to Englishman Graham Potter and collected one point in its group. How is this possible? The media reports some internal disagreements, which led to the dismissal of former Milan player Tomasson, but the team has been penalized by the physical problems of its two stars: strikers Gyokeres and Isak moved to Arsenal and Liverpool in the summer for a total of more than €200 million, but have been unable to contribute. Gyokeres played four games, Isak only one as a starter. In March, however, it is conceivable that both will be in good shape: imagine if Italy had faced Norway without Haaland and Sorloth…
The others— In short, it would be better to avoid Sweden, and not just because of the frightening precedent of 2017. A rematch with Macedonia would be much more comfortable, provided that they are defeated in the play-off against Wales. Otherwise, the British would be among the four possible opponents, but they do not seem insurmountable. And speaking of the United Kingdom: another possible semifinal is Italy-Northern Ireland, which evokes other embarrassing memories, albeit dated, namely the elimination from the 1958 World Cup. It is the smallest of the lot. Even weaker than Romania, the last option, repêchaged like Sweden from the Nations League. They can be beaten, despite the alchemy of the old fox Lucescu, because it is no longer Hagi’s team. Or rather, it is, with his son Ianis inheriting the number 10 shirt: with all due respect, it’s not the same thing.
