Wawrinka’s fight against the imminent end of his career

The 2022 tennis season is slowly coming to an end. A few highlights are still on the agenda. Among them is the Laver Cup next weekend, where legend Roger Federer will stand on a tennis court for the last time as an active professional. Together with other top European players such as Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal or Andy Murray, they will play against a select group of world-class athletes who do not come from Europe.

Federer’s compatriot Stan Wawrinka, meanwhile, will serve in the hard-court indoor tournament in Metz this week. The now 37-year-old has fought his way through the qualifiers thanks to two wins and will now face an uncomfortable opponent from Portugal in the last 32. Ahead of the Wawrinka vs. Sousa encounter, the odds indicate favouritism for the Swiss, who has enjoyed the greatest successes of his career on hard court but not indoors.

It should be clear that in tennis it is not always sensible to take only the current world ranking positions as a yardstick. In the upcoming duel, too, the world number 284 is favoured against the 55.

Nevertheless, caution should be exercised from the point of view of the former Grand Slam winner, because with his very controlled style of play, the supposed underdog from Guimaraes can be dangerous to any opponent on a good day. Our prediction between Wawrinka and Sousa therefore goes in the direction of a competitive match that may even last over three sets.

Stan Wawrinka – Statistics & current form

Over a long period of time, Stan Wawrinka was one of the best tennis players in the world. In July 2017, the Swiss reached his peak in the world rankings, when he was temporarily even ranked third. With the Australian Open 2014, the French Open 2015 and the US Open 2016, “Stan – the Man” won three Grand Slams. Only at Wimbledon was the Swiss never able to put on his crown.

This will not change in the future, because Wawrinka’s time also seems to be coming to an end. After several tough operations on his damaged knee and feet, the 37-year-old is struggling to catch up. The right-hander has already fallen to 284th in the world rankings and his miserable record of just five wins and ten losses in the current calendar year speaks volumes.

How fit is Wawrinka really?

After his recent comeback in March 2022, Wawrinka has lost eight of his ten first-round matches. At the US Open, one of his absolute favourite tournaments, “Iron-Stan” even had to retire in his opening match a few weeks ago.

Now the 1.83 metre man from Lausanne has returned to the tour and even with two quite unexpected successes. In the qualifier, he surprisingly eliminated Laszlo Djere, before he also put Hungary’s Piros in his place after three sets. The Swiss is therefore represented in the main draw and, according to the odds, is even considered the favourite before the sixteenth final of Wawrinka vs.

This assessment is to be questioned, however, because despite his hard baseline strokes and serve, which was a real weapon at the wedding to cleverly build up the point, the indoor hard courts were never the preferred surface of the veteran. Because the former world number three will also have to play three matches within a short period of time for the first time since May 2022 and because there is definitely a question mark behind his fitness, we would advise against betting on the former “Marathon Stan” in the duel Wawrinka versus Sousa. With advancing age, it seems more likely that longer games, once considered a strength, will lead to disadvantages for the oldie.

Joao Sousa – statistics & current form

Joao Sousa has not yet achieved such outstanding success as his counterpart in his already long career. Nevertheless, the Portuguese was already ranked in the world’s top 30 around six years ago. His highest ranking to date was 28th. Currently, the 33-year-old is still in 55th position, which means he did not have to play in the qualifiers in Metz, but could automatically register for the main draw.

That was a good thing, because the right-hander, who has never made it further than the last 16 at Grand Slams, was still playing for his country in the Davis Cup at the weekend. Sousa won both singles against the Brazilians Monteiro and Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves and thus laid the foundation for the 3:1 victory of his Portuguese team.

Even more important than the self-confidence gained from the two commanding two-set victories, in which the 33-year-old surrendered a total of only eight games, was the fact that the man from Guimaraes had already played two matches on hard court indoors and was thus able to gain match practice on this special surface.

Joao Sousa is considered to be a fighter with a good physique

The fact that the 1.81 metre tall Portuguese, who has a very variable baseline game, returns many balls on the defensive and usually allows himself only a few “unforced errors”, loves indoor tournaments on hard court is underpinned by the fact that he won two of his four career titles in indoor tournaments.

Despite his negative season record of 24-28, which is by no means as bad as Wawrinka’s, Sousa has already scored one or two statement successes in 2022. In February, the veteran won the well-stocked tournament in Pune, including a final victory over the up-and-coming Finn Ruusuvuori. Sousa also reached the final of the clay court event in Geneva in mid-May, where he only lost to Casper Ruud. So the outsider should not be underestimated at all. We think he can play a good match and even win the tournament.

Stan Wawrinka – Joao Sousa Direct comparison / H2H record

Both players have been on the tour together for almost two decades. Three head-to-head duels have already taken place. However, these are all at least seven years in the past and are therefore of little significance for the upcoming encounter.

Nevertheless, it should be noted that Wawrinka won all three matches against his four-year-younger opponent and never dropped a set. However, the professionals have only met on clay or grass. There will be a premiere on hard court in Metz on Wednesday.

Stan Wawrinka – Joao Sousa Tip

Two seasoned professionals will face each other in the round of the last 32 at the indoor tennis tournament on hard courts in Metz on Tuesday lunchtime. The Swiss and his Portuguese opponent have a combined total of 70 years. But in our eyes, that is no reason not to take a closer look at the betting odds on a long match between Wawrinka and Sousa.

Wawrinka has somewhat surprisingly survived the qualifying round, but is now playing three tour matches within a very short time for the first time in almost half a year. After many surgeries and in view of his 37 years, it is always necessary to wait and see how the Swiss finds his way into a match and how he can keep up the pace over the distance.

Our first approach is therefore to tip between Wawrinka and Sousa that at least 22 games will be played. To beat this line, you don’t even need a three-set thriller, but simply two exciting and balanced rounds.

If you want to take a bit more risk, you can bet on the Portuguese advancing to the next round. We don’t see him without a chance at all, especially since he has delivered better results than the three-time Grand Slam champion this season. A 5.00 is even possible if Sousa gets the upper hand in three sets