The rivals, after their head-to-head battles throughout the season, meet again in Turin. Last year’s points will be discarded, and Carlos will start in the lead. Here are all the scenarios that would allow Jannik to finish the season in first place

The Sincaraz saga is set to change locations. After the canceled event at La Défense in Paris—the scene of Jannik’s solo performance that echoed the concerts of the Rolling Stones and Bruce Springsteen—the next showdown will take place in Turin, at the Inalpi Arena designed by Isozaki. Rock music, star architects, tennis. After all, aren’t Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz now fully integrated into the entertainment industry? So far, the two rivals have never faced each other at the ATP Finals. They’ve come close, yes, as in 2023, when Djokovic knocked them out one after the other (the Spaniard in the semifinals, the Italian in the final), but never head-to-head. This could be the moment: the most spectacular finale of a season that has already rewritten tennis history.

The two phenoms have dominated the scene, leaving the competition in the dust. Take the new official rankings (based on the 52-week period), which today put Sinner back in first place: Jannik and Carlos, with over 11,000 points, have twice as many points as the third-place player (Zverev, 5,560). A duopoly that began in 2024 and has continued this year, despite Sinner’s three-month suspension over the Clostebol case. The last eight Grand Slams bear their mark, split evenly: four each in total, two each per season. The year 2025, then, marked the pinnacle of the “Big Two” era, as they faced off in the finals of five of the seven tournaments in which they both competed. The exceptions to the rule were the first event (the Australian Open) and the last (the Paris Masters 1000), both won by Sinner. Jannik and Carlos met again in May at the Italian Open, right after the South Tyrolean’s return. On the clay courts of Rome, and then at Roland Garros, the Spaniard showed he had an extra gear. The Italian erased the bad memory of the three squandered match points in Paris by dominating the Wimbledon final. In Cincinnati, a virus sidelined him. Then came the unstoppable Alcaraz at the U.S. Open, prompting Sinner to make a few adjustments. Returning to his beloved indoor courts (26 consecutive wins), “The Fox” has also rediscovered his form: high-level serving, suffocating pressure from the baseline, and the drop shot used with growing confidence. In Paris, the Murcian faced some old demons, and the balance of power shifted once again. We’ll have to get used to it. So here we are, on the eve of the Turin Finals. Alcaraz has announced that he’ll be in Italy as early as Wednesday to get used to the court set up by GreenSet, led by former world No. 23 Javier Sanchez Vicario. Sinner will take a few more days to recover from the exertions of Paris. The draw for the two groups of the Finals will take place on Thursday. The Race season rankings will determine the groupings, with Alcaraz leading ahead of Sinner. As a result, Carlos, the No. 1 seed, will be placed in Group A, and Jannik, the No. 2 seed, in Group B. They won’t face each other in the round-robin stage. They could meet in the semifinals, scheduled for Saturday, if they finish their respective groups in first and second place, respectively. Or they could face off in Sunday’s final.

showdown—  Two Grand Slams each, eight titles in total for Alcaraz, five for Sinner, who has played four fewer tournaments. The Finals feel very much like a showdown in 2025. The top spot in the year-end rankings is also at stake—a milestone achieved by the Spaniard in 2022 and by the Italian in 2024. Who will it be this time? Next Monday, in the official rankings, the points earned in Turin a year ago will expire: 1,500 for Jannik, 200 for Carlos, who will thus return to the top. The standings will be as follows: Alcaraz 11,050 points, Sinner 10,000. The Finals award 200 points for each win in the round-robin stage, 400 for a semifinal victory, and 500 for a final victory—a total of 1,500 points for the undefeated champion (as Sinner was a year ago). To finish atop the ATP rankings for the second year in a row, the Italian will have to win the Finals again. If he does so undefeated—finishing with 11,500 points—he would need Alcaraz to win no more than two matches in the round-robin stage and then be eliminated in the semifinals, so that Alcaraz would reach a maximum of 11,450 points. If he were to do so with one loss in the round-robin stage—thus finishing with 11,300 points—then the Spaniard would need to win no more than one match, bringing his total to 11,250 points. One final scenario: Jannik wins the Finals after winning just one match in the group stage, finishing with 11,100 points; in that case, Carlos would have to lose every match in Turin, remaining at 11,050 points. Calculations aside, it’s going to be quite a show at the Inalpi Arena anyway.