How does the Werkself react to the recent setbacks?
After a strong start to the second half of the season with 13 out of a possible 15 points from the first five league games in the new year, everything looked like the Werkself would join Bayern and Dortmund in third place in the Champions League. But then the Rhinelanders won just one of their last four games, whereupon their lead over sixth place shrank to one point.
Leverkusen are now under pressure in Lower Saxony when they have to keep three teams at bay – RB Leipzig, Hoffenheim and Freiburg – who have comparatively easier tasks ahead of them. Nevertheless, in the run-up to the duel between Wolfsburg and Leverkusen, the odds are swinging in the direction of the Werkself.
However, VfL goes into this home match with a good record. The Wolves have not lost any of their last four Bundesliga games against the Rhinelanders (three wins, one draw) and already prevailed 2-0 in the first leg on Kohfeldt’s debut away to Leverkusen. However, the Werkself have always scored in 15 of their last 16 league games, while Wolfsburg are also very vulnerable defensively.
Wolfsburg – statistics & current form
VfL Wolfsburg qualified for the Champions League last season in fourth place in the table and, after finishing bottom of the group in the preliminary round, were hoping to secure a European spot again in the new season.
Eight matchdays before the end of the season, however, it is already virtually clear that the team from Lower Saxony will have to do without international matches in the 2022/23 season. After all, they are already 13 points behind sixth place.
Ten out of 18 possible points from the last six league games
On the other hand, staying in the league is not yet completely in the bag, although the twelfth-placed team in the table, with an eight-point lead over the relegation zone, would need an enormous negative streak for things to get really tight again.
Accordingly, the Wolves’ primary mission is to collect the important points needed to stay in the league and build on the mixed, but not unsuccessful, last few weeks, when they picked up ten out of a possible 18 points from their last six league games.
Already conceding three more goals than in the entire preseason
Nevertheless, betting on a home win for Wolfsburg against Leverkusen is not under the most favorable omens. Admittedly, the Wolves have not lost to Bayer 04 for four encounters. However, from the last five home games against the Werkself, the VfL picked up only one of 15 possible points.
The situation is aggravated by the defensive vulnerability of the Lower Saxons, who have already conceded 40 goals in 26 league games. That is “only” the seventh-worst figure in the Bundesliga. However, a look at the previous season, in which only 37 goals were conceded in total, shows very well that this problem is closely linked to the mixed overall situation.
Predicted lineup of Wolfsburg:
Pervan – Roussillon – Brooks – Bornauw – Lacroix – Baku – Arnold – Schlager – Kruse – Wind – Nmecha
Last matches played by Wolfsburg:
Bundesliga
03/12 2022 – SC Freiburg 3 – 2 VfL Wolfsburg
03/05 2022 – VfL Wolfsburg 1 – 0 Union Berlin
02/26 2022 – Gladbach 2 – 2 VfL Wolfsburg
02/19 2022 – VfL Wolfsburg 1 – 2 Hoffenheim
02/12 2022 – Eintracht Frankfurt 0 – 2 VfL Wolfsburg
Leverkusen – statistics & current form
Bayer Leverkusen finished sixth in the final table last summer, again missing out on successful qualification for the Champions League for the second year in a row. In fact, the club, which has been a permanent fixture in the top flight this millennium, has only participated in Europe’s most important competition for club teams once in the last five years.
Accordingly, the objective for the new season was clear: to return to the top four in the Bundesliga and qualify for the Champions League.
Just one point clear of sixth place
The Rhinelanders are still on course to do so, although the starting position that was so comfortable just a few weeks ago has become somewhat worrying. It is true that Bayer 04 enters the 27th matchday in third place in the table.
However, three of their rivals have just one point less than Gerardo Seoane’s team, which could theoretically drop to sixth place if they fail to win in Lower Saxony.
Counted out after losing derby, Europa League exit and injury woes
In addition, the Werkself had to play an energy-sapping game against Atalanta Bergamo during the week, which was lost just like the first leg (0:1), while Florian Wirtz was also injured in the Rhineland derby against Cologne, which was lost last time out. In addition, Jeremie Frimpong is out for the season.
Accordingly, the Rhinelanders travel to the Volkswagen Arena, which has always been a good place to play lately. Four of the last five guest games ended with an away win (one draw).
Predicted Leverkusen lineup:
Hradecky – Bakker – Tapsoba – Tah – Fosu-Mensah – Demirbay – Andrich – Diaby – Adli – Bellarabi – Alario
Last matches played by Leverkusen:
Europa League Final Stage
03/17 2022 – Bayer Leverkusen 0 – 1 Atalanta Bergamo
Bundesliga
03/13 2022 – Bayer Leverkusen 0 – 1 1. FC Köln
Europa League Final Stage
03/10 2022 – Atalanta Bergamo 3 – 2 Bayer Leverkusen
Bundesliga
03/05 2022 – Bayern Munich 1 – 1 Bayer Leverkusen
02/26 2022 – Bayer Leverkusen 3 – 0 Arminia Bielefeld
Wolfsburg – Leverkusen Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 21 – 8 – 23
There have been a total of 52 meetings between the two teams so far and with 23 wins, Leverkusen leads the direct comparison by a narrow margin. Most recently, the Wolves remained unbeaten in four consecutive league games against the Werkself (three wins, one draw). The Rhinelanders, however, have not lost any of their last five matches in Lower Saxony (four wins, one draw).
Wolfsburg – Leverkusen tip
For Wolfsburg against Leverkusen, the prediction must take into account that the Rhinelanders have somewhat lost the strong form of the second-round opener in recent weeks. In league play, only four points out of a possible twelve have been picked up recently, which means that Champions League qualification is once again on shakier ground. This contrasts with the Wolves, who have still managed to pick up ten points out of a possible 18 from their last six matches.
It is correspondingly difficult to bet on the outcome of this already close duel with a fairly even head-to-head record. Also in view of defensive sloppiness of both teams, it makes the most sense to bet on more than 2.5 goals.
