Will BVB show their friendly CL face in Eindhoven?
Only very few experts would have thought that Borussia Dortmund would even qualify for the round of 16 in the group of death with Paris St. Germain, AC Milan and Newcastle United. However, after initial difficulties, the Black & Yellows rose above themselves and ultimately even secured group victory with a draw against the French season-table champions. However, this pleasing result was not really associated with a supposedly easier opponent in the round of 16, as BVB will face PSV from Eindhoven, who are still unbeaten in the Eredivisie
On paper, the bookmakers still see the reigning Bundesliga runners-up as slight favorites. At least when it comes to reaching the quarter-finals after a first and second leg. However, ahead of the first match on Tuesday evening, in which PSV Eindhoven enjoy home advantage against Dortmund, the odds on former BVB coach Peter Bosz’s team are lower. No wonder, as the “Rood-Witten” have not suffered a single defeat in front of their own fans in all competitions in the entire 2023/24 season
The bottom line, however, is that the opponents are on an equal footing. Terzic’s side have shown a completely different face in the top flight than at national level so far, while the Dutch are eager for their first CL knockout game since 2015/16. The omens for an intense and, above all, exciting encounter could hardly be better.
In view of a match that even experts like Michael Henke rate as completely open in his interview on PSV vs BVB, it once again shows why ODDSET can be the first port of call for fans when it comes to betting. With its state licensing and long-standing trustworthiness, ODDSET offers a solid foundation for anyone who wants to turn their sports knowledge and intuition into exciting bets. The user-friendly platform and fair conditions round off the offer and make ODDSET the ideal partner for this “fifty-fifty” game.
PSV Eindhoven – Statistics & current form
With 24 championships and eleven cup wins, PSV Eindhoven is undoubtedly one of the most successful soccer clubs in the Netherlands. While the last championship title dates back to 2018, they have won the cup in the last two seasons. In 2023/24, the “Lamps” are set to end their six-year drought. With a current ten-point lead over reigning champions Feyenoord Rotterdam, hardly anyone doubts that they will win the title, which would be a first for coach Peter Bosz. The former BVB coach is still waiting for his first notable trophy in his career.
The 60-year-old, who took over from Fred Rutten/Ruud van Nistelrooy in the summer, has done an outstanding job so far and created a functioning collective that has no need to hide from any opponent in Europe. In 35 competitive matches under Bosz, the Red & Whites have celebrated 27 victories, recorded six draws and conceded just two defeats. One in the Champions League group stage at Arsenal (0:4) and one in the cup quarter-final against Feyenoord (0:1). 96 goals scored and a sensational average of 2.49 points also underline what a great season Philips’ Sport Vereniging is currently having
Does PSV Eindhoven still lack the necessary maturity for a CL knockout game?
In recent weeks, however, the undisputed Eredivisie leaders have had a few minor slip-ups. Of their last six competitive matches, for example, only three were victorious. However, all of these failures resulted from away games. At home, on the other hand, the “Boeren” have yet to lose a game in the entire season.
Including the CL qualifiers, in which they beat Sturm Graz and Glasgow Rangers very comfortably, they have three wins and two draws at home on the international stage. Overall, the Dutch side have remained unbeaten in their last five CL group games (2-3-0), equaling their own club record in the most important international club competition. In view of these impressive statistics, it is therefore too risky for us to make a prediction on the double chance X2 between PSV Eindhoven and Dortmund.
However, it is also clear that many PSV players still lack the experience of playing in a knockout match at this level. The last time the Red & Whites reached the round of 16 in the top flight was in 2015/16. The last victory at knockout level was 17 (!) years ago. Because Peter Bosz and his charges still have the ambition to play the dreaded possession soccer in their own stadium, but this could be error-prone in connection with the tension and excitement, we are checking the odds for the visitors from the Ruhr area to score the first goal in the first leg between PSV Eindhoven and Dortmund.
PSV Eindhoven line-up prediction:
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
Did you know that BVB fans are usually also rollercoaster lovers? Especially the common affirmation for regularly alternating highs and lows suggests this. Joy and sorrow are often very close together among the supporters of the black and yellows. While almost two weeks ago, Borussia supporters felt as though their team was finally back on the right track after a strong 3:0 home win against SC Freiburg, the next setback was not long in coming last Saturday afternoon with a meagre 1:1 draw in Wolfsburg. There’s no doubt that Terzic’s team are a real surprise package.
Nevertheless, the good face that the Black & Yellows have shown for the most part in this year’s group stage of the top flight gives hope for the Champions League round of 16 against the Dutch league leaders. After just one point and no goals from the first two games, Dortmund not only secured progression but also group victory with ten points from the following four matches. They relied first and foremost on their defense, conceding just two goals in their last five international matches
BVB are clearly comfortable in their reactive role
The truth is, however, that the back line around life insurance Gregor Kobel often had the luck of the game on their side. Nevertheless, BVB’s generally stable and focused defense has guaranteed that Black & Yellow have always taken a 1-0 lead in the last four CL matches. This is one of the reasons why we once again refer to the PSV Eindhoven vs Dortmund odds, which focus on the Bundesliga side scoring the first goal of the game once again. This assessment is further supported by the fact that in five out of six league matches in 2024, a corresponding bet would also have gone through. At national level, too, the work against the ball has attracted attention with two goals conceded in six games
The fact that the club has lost eight of its last nine CL away games in the knockout phase is less reassuring. However, Edin Terzic’s only victory of this kind came in his first spell in charge in 2020/21, when he prevailed 3-2 in Sevilla. However, Dortmund have won their two most recent CL matches in the preliminary round at Newcastle and AC Milan. If the Bundesliga fourth-placed side can build on their performances, it seems reasonable to predict that PSV Eindhoven will score at least one goal against Dortmund.
Niclas Füllkrug, who has scored just as many goals in six Bundesliga matches after the winter break and has also got on the scoreboard in four of the last five league matches, is of course the most likely scorer. In the Premier League, the international striker has scored one goal so far. In the Bet365 app, among others, a very solid 3.20 can be played for Füllkrug to score, which could become even more important if the recently in-form Donyell Malen unexpectedly does not start at the Philips Stadion at his former club after his knee injury.
Predicted Dortmund line-up:
PSV Eindhoven – Dortmund head-to-head comparison / H2H result
The only previous meeting between Eindhoven and Dortmund was in the 2002/03 Champions League season. BVB took all three points from the Netherlands in the group stage (3:1), but had to settle for a 1:1 draw at home. All in all, Borussia’s away record in the Eredivisie is pretty good: they have only lost one of their last four matches in the Netherlands (2-1-1). PSV from Eindhoven, meanwhile, have played twelve times against German clubs in the top flight, losing on eight occasions (3-1-8).
PSV Eindhoven – Dortmund betting tip
After RB Leipzig and FC Bayern lost their Round of 16 first legs in the top flight the previous week, the hopes of many German fans rest on the Black & Yellows on Tuesday evening. Group winners Borussia Dortmund will face runners-up PSV Eindhoven, who have lost just two of their 35 competitive matches this season (27-6-2). The Dutch side, who are aiming to win a Champions League knockout match for the first time since 2007 (!), will enjoy home advantage in the first leg. The Eredivisie leaders have not lost a single match in front of their own fans in 2023/24!
Nevertheless, we don’t think BVB are without a chance. On the one hand, because Terzic’s side have yet to lose after the winter break and have conceded just two goals in six league games. On the other hand, due to the very strong previous round, which showed that Borussia feels much more comfortable in a wait-and-see, reactive role than with the status of favorites behind them. Thanks to the good transitional play and the existing quality, we are not averse to playing betting odds between PSV Eindhoven and Dortmund in the direction of the Ruhrpott club
However, placing a bet on the three-way market is not an option for us. However, it is conceivable that Füllkrug and Co. will take a 1-0 lead, as they have done in the last four CL matches and in five of the last six BL matches. We therefore recommend betting on BVB scoring the first goal of the game in the first leg between PSV Eindhoven and Dortmund. At Bwin we get maximum odds of 2.15.
