Have the Bullen digested the shock of the Champions League?
There will be a special reunion at Castroper Straße on Saturday. Thomas Letsch and Marco Rose once worked together at RB Salzburg and were both in the draw for the head coaching job. As is well known, Rose won the race in 2017. How deep the sting was for Letsch back then is not known, but it is clear that the VfL coach will do everything in his power to ensure that a tip on a home win will now fit between Bochum and RB Leipzig.
However, it should be clear that the role of favourites clearly lies with the guests from Saxony. Happybet offers odds of just over 1.50 on a win for the Saxons. There are considerable differences in the quality of the personnel, which can always be overcome in a single match.
The Bulls are in considerably better form, however, if you leave aside last Tuesday’s ignominy in Manchester. Marco Rose’s team, in third place, are well on their way to competing in the Champions League again next season. Perhaps they can even get back into the title race if their rivals from Munich and Dortmund slip up.
The Bochum side are ranked 14th and were only better placed after the first matchday this season. This includes VfL, who have the highest Expected Value in terms of goals conceded in the Bundesliga. In addition, the Bullen have been in the lead for the most minutes after FC Bayern this season. So we almost come to the conclusion that between Bochum and RB Leipzig a prediction on a handicap win for the visitors could fit.
Bochum – Statistics & current form
The VfL are right in the middle of the relegation battle. But that’s not so much down to Thomas Letsch, who incidentally sat on the Bochum bench for the first time in the 0:4 first leg in Leipzig. After Heinz Höher and Hermann Eppenhoff, Thomas Letsch is the VfL coach with the best record after 17 games in the Bundesliga, with six wins. Interestingly, there has not been a single draw for Bochum under Letsch.
The home record is crumbling
On the road, Bochum are not getting much going, even though they finally got the upper hand away from home in Cologne last week. The 2-0 win was an extremely important sign of life in the fight to stay in the Bundesliga. Kevin Stöger gave his side an early lead with a penalty kick before Erhan Masovic made it 2-0
Generally, however, VfL tend to get their points at Castroper Straße. Bochum have taken 16 of 22 points in their own arena. However, this record has deteriorated in recent weeks. In the meantime, there have been five home victories in a row, but recently VfL had to admit defeat at home against Freiburg and also in the derby against Schalke.
In addition, the Bochum team has failed to score in the last two games. The last time there were three home defeats without a goal of their own was in the 1998/99 season, then still under Klaus Toppmöller. Even if the away win in Cologne has given them renewed self-confidence, we can imagine playing the odds on a win to nil for the Saxons between Bochum and RB Leipzig.
Last games of Bochum:
11/03/2023 – 1. FC Köln 0 – 2 VfL Bochum
04/03/2023 – VfL Bochum 0 – 2 Schalke 04
25/02/2023 – Werder Bremen 3 – 0 VfL Bochum
18/02/2023 – VfL Bochum 0 – 2 SC Freiburg
11/02/2023 – Bayern Munich 3 – 0 VfL Bochum
RB Leipzig – Statistics & current form
The change of coach to Thomas Letsch has made sense at VfL Bochum. The same can only be said for Marco Rose and RB Leipzig. Since the Leipzig native has been in charge at RB, only Bayern have collected more points in the Bundesliga. Moreover, the Saxons have conceded the fewest goals in the league since the change of coach.
Another parallel to VfL is that RasenBallsport score much better at home. Away from home, their record in the Bundesliga is completely balanced with four wins, four draws and four defeats. That is then rather not a statistic of a team in the top flight, although in this respect Marco Rose is not solely responsible.
Painful defeat in the Champions League
Overall, things are going very well in the Bundesliga with only two defeats from the last 16 games. But what that means in international comparison, the Bullen had to learn painfully last Tuesday. In the second leg of the round of 16 in the Champions League, Leipzig suffered a 7-0 defeat at Manchester City, which was also justified by the amount of the defeat. But we are sure that Marco Rose will not have to watch such a performance from his team two games in a row.
There could be two key players for Leipzig in Bochum on Saturday. Emil Forsberg has scored in each of the last four Bundesliga games. Only two Bullen players can boast a longer streak. And then there is Timo Werner. Whenever the national attacker has scored this season, Leipzig has not lost. The probability of a win in this case is even over 80 per cent.
Last matches played by RB Leipzig:
Champions League Final
15/03/2023 – Manchester City 7 – 0 RB Leipzig
11/03/2023 – RB Leipzig 3 – 0 Gladbach
04/03/2023 – Borussia Dortmund 2 – 1 RB Leipzig
25/02/2023 – RB Leipzig 2 – 1 Eintracht Frankfurt
Champions League Final
23/02/2023 – RB Leipzig 1 – 1 Manchester City
Bochum – RB Leipzig Direct comparison / H2H-balance
The previous duels between VfL Bochum and RB Leipzig can still be counted on two hands. The opponents have met three times in the Bundesliga, four times in the lower league and once in the DFB Pokal. The direct comparison is a cold horror for the Revierklub. The Saxons have won all eight games so far.
All in all, the Bochum team scored just two goals against RB. In the Bundesliga, VfL is still waiting for its first goal against the Bullen. The first leg, the first under Thomas Letsch as Bochum coach, was a clear affair. After a brace each from Timo Werner and Christopher Nkunku, the Saxons won outright 4-0.
Bochum – RB Leipzig tip
VfL Bochum hold two trump cards on Saturday. Firstly, the Revierklub has picked up 16 of its 22 points at Castroper Straße and can be considered strong at home. Secondly, the question arises as to how much the Bullen’s 0:7 defeat in Manchester during the week still hangs in their clothes. But we don’t see much else that speaks for the Bochum team.
From our point of view, the Saxons are the clear favourites. We expect an act of defiance to put the Champions League disgrace behind them as quickly as possible. Moreover, Leipzig have been very successful in the Bundesliga under Marco Rose. Since the coach has been in charge, only Bayern have picked up a point more.
As a rule, the direct duels went early and clearly in favour of the Bullen. Leipzig have won all eight previous encounters, some of them very clearly, such as the 4-0 victory in the first leg, when the rough Bundesliga wind blew in VfL coach Thomas Letsch’s face for the first time. We think the second leg may not be quite so clear-cut, but have decided to play the betting odds on a handicap win (-1.5) for the Saxons between Bochum and RB Leipzig.