Who will secure the last play-off spot in the West?

In Canada, for once, it’s not about the maple syrup, but about the sausage when the last play-off spot in the West is played out in our Winnipeg Jets vs Calgary Flames tip-off. Currently, the Jets still hold the better cards in their hands.

The Jets are two points ahead of the Flames and also have the higher number of ROW (wins after regulation time or overtime). This means that even if they lose and are tied on points, they would still be ahead.

With Winnipeg also being extremely strong at home and already having 24 home wins this season (second most in the Western Conference), we see them as the favourites for Wednesday. The Flames also have a back-to-back game, so they should be a little less rested.

So for Winnipeg against Calgary, our prediction is a clear home win for the Jets, who won their last two home games very clearly with 6:2 and 6:1. This should also give the Canadians the decisive victory for play-off participation.

First face-off of this decisive game in the Western Conference is on Thursday night at 01.30 in Winnipeg. The game can be followed live on NHL.TV.

Winnipeg Jets – Statistics & current form

The Jets hold all the aces, thanks in part to two convincing home wins last week. 6:2 against the Red Wings and 6:1 against the Devils, those were already important announcements. After all, the Devils are second in the Metropolitan Division with 104 points.

So we wonder a bit why they are not seen as the bigger favourites again at home against the Flames. A roughly even betting odds spread for both teams here gives us tremendous chances to take advantage of the odds on the home team in Jets vs. Flames.

Form on the rise again

After a brief mid-season slump a few weeks ago, the Jets also seem to have bounced back, as evidenced by their recent home games. Especially offensively, they have finally found their target water again. Over the season, they are only at 3.01 goals per game (21st in the NHL).

However, since their upcoming opponents from Calgary are also only 18th (3.18), this weakness is negligible. In most other statistics, the Jets are slightly ahead. For example, they concede 0.3 goals less per game (2.78 to 3.08) and have the better penalty killing (82.3 to 81.9%).

With the goalies with clear advantages

A final but crucial advantage is their better form at the goalie position. Connor Hellebuyck stands at a save percentage of 91.8% here. Both Flames goalies are well behind (Vladar 89.5%, Markstrom 89.0%).

This goalie strength plus their home strength are the decisive points for us, which is why we clearly favour bets on Winnipeg. These can still be considered playable even with a slight -1.5 point handicap.

Key Players:
G: Connor Hellebuyck
D: Josh Morrisey
D: Dylan Demelo
LW: Kyle Connor
C: Pierre-Luc Dubois
RW: Mark Scheifele

Calgary Flames – Statistics & current form

The Flames woke up recently, but probably too late. After all, they now have a small final game, so to speak, for the last play-off place in the Western Conference, even if even a win would not get them past the Jets.

In addition, they play away and, unlike their opponents, have a back-to-back game, as they have to play the Blackhawks at home the night before. Both not necessarily the best prerequisites for Calgary.

There’s a lot to be said against the Flames

These two points, however, are just two of several that speak against the Flames on Wednesday. They also lost the last game in Winnipeg in January with 2:3 as indeed all the last four meetings that took place in the north of Canada.

In addition, we have already mentioned the Flames’ goalie weakness, which could not be remedied throughout the entire season. If Jacob Markstrom was a disappointment from the start, Dan Vladar has also been noticeably weaker in recent weeks.

Both concede an average of almost three goals per game (2.91 and 2.98), which puts them both outside the top 20 goalkeepers. Yet that was precisely one of their greatest strengths last year.

All or nothing for Calgary

If the Flames lose on Wednesday, the playoffs will be over for good, which would be a huge disappointment and probably the end of head coach Darryl Sutter. So there is a lot at stake for the Canadians, which should also increase the pressure.

We don’t see a good ending for them in this matchup, as the Flames have always somehow blown crucial games this season. So for Calgary vs. Winnipeg, a bet on the Jets is our clear betting option No.1.

Key Players:
G: Dan Vladar
D: Mackenzie Weegar
D: Rasmus Andersson
LW: Dillon Dube
C: Elias Lindholm
RW: Tyler Toffoli

Winnipeg Jets – Calgary Flames Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

This season, the record of these two teams is even at 1-1 – a balance that, after all, is reflected in the standings. Over the last few years, however, the Flames have always struggled in Winnipeg. Eight of the last ten duels in Winnipeg went to the Jets.

Since they won their last three home games convincingly, we lack a bit of imagination to predict a positive result for the Flames on Wednesday. In fact, it wouldn’t be a big surprise if the Jets won this game by two or more goals difference.

Thus, odds on the home team are a very good betting option for Jets vs Flames. Alternatively, sub-par odds are also possible, as this matchup has not seen more than six total goals scored in twelve games.

Winnipeg Jets – Calgary Flames Tip

Jets or Flames – that is the question here when it comes to the play-offs in the West. The duel is therefore almost like a play-off game, where the better defence usually wins – and the Jets clearly have that, including goalies.

Thus, for Winnipeg against Calgary, a prediction on the Jets is our favourite bet, followed by bets on sub-points. A combination of these two picks is also worth considering, of course, to really boost the value.

So an alternative for this matchup is clearly also a bet on sub-points. 5, 5, 4, 4, 6, 4 have been the total goals in the last six meetings and we don’t expect the 6-goal mark to be surpassed on Wednesday night either.