Will the Chargers end the Jaguars’ fairytale rise?

Without exception, all of the duels that kick off the NFL Playoffs on Wildcard weekend have occurred – at least once – during the season. The game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Los Angeles Chargers already took place on the third day of play. It is difficult to find a tip for the rematch of the game, as the home side has had a strong final spurt and has won the last five games in a row. The Chargers, on the other hand, finished the regular season with the better win-loss record but finished second in the AFC West.

“From worst to 1st!”, at least in the division! The Jacksonville Jaguars secured the AFC South title last week thanks to a strong defence in a win-and-in duel with the Tennessee Titans. It marked the first division win since 2017 for the Florida franchise, which finished as the league’s worst team in each of the last two seasons.

For the seventh straight year, the Chargers lost out to the Kansas City Chiefs in the battle for the AFC West title and will have to travel to Florida’s EverBank Field Stadium. They will enter as slight favourites, but the bookmakers have high hopes for the home side based on their recent performances. Odds of up to 1.78 are available between the Jaguars and Chargers when betting on the favourites.

Jacksonville Jaguars – Statistics & Current Form

Even before the 2021 draft, it was probably a foregone conclusion that the potential “1st overall pick”, Trevor Lawrence, whom the Jaguars selected, had the potential to permanently change the face of the franchise. Of course, there was no guarantee of that at the time. Nearly a year and a half later, Jacksonville is in the postseason – thanks in part to its good development.

Improved offensively and defensively

In the aforementioned strong final spurt, they defeated their rivals from Tennessee twice, among others, which ultimately tipped the division in favour of the Jaguars. The biggest surprise, however, came against the Dallas Cowboys, whom they beat in overtime. What was noticeable during this period was that the offence worked well. Running back Travis Etienne rushed for at least 80 yards between Weeks 15 and 17, but then saw nothing in the season finale against the league’s best rushing defence. Still, in the Jaguars vs. Chargers matchup, we’d venture a prediction that he’ll take on a bigger role in the offense again, because LA is extremely vulnerable defensively, especially on the ground.

In the first meeting at the end of September, playmaker Lawrence threw passes for 262 yards and three touchdowns. Whether he can really put up a similarly strong performance against a now good passing defence seems questionable. If not, it will depend all the more on the performance of the aforementioned Etienne.

Jacksonville’s success against the Titans last game day was down to the defence, as it was a defensive touchdown late in the fourth quarter that set the course for victory. This unit only conceded an average of 20.6 points over the entire season and only allowed Los Angeles ten points in the first duel. Will the home defence be able to do this again in the wild-card round between the Jaguars and Chargers? We definitely don’t recommend betting on it – in view of the visitors’ strong offence.

Key Players:
QB: Trevor Lawrence
RB: Travis Etienne Jr.
WR: Christian Kirk
TE: Evan Engram
K: Riley Patterson

Los Angeles Chargers – stats & current form

Speaking of a potent offense. There is no question that the Chargers have one. But on the field, they don’t get it on the field in every game. That’s one of the reasons head coach Brandon Staley has faced some criticism. Even more criticism came after last weekend’s game when, despite Los Angeles being in fifth place in the conference before the game started, he called up key players for the first three quarters. He then defended his decision with game practice and rhythm. But if now with wide receiver Mike Williams, linebacker Kenneth Murray or defensive end Joey Bosa against the Jaguars really important players are missing who got injured against the Denver Broncos, the critical voices will not become quieter.

Since we covered the “1st-overall pick” of the 2021 draft in detail in the Jacksonville piece, it behooves us to write about Justin Herbert at this point as well. The Chargers playmaker was drafted sixth overall to Los Angeles in the 2020 draft the year before and was already one of the positive surprises in his rookie season. This season, he led his team to the playoffs for the first time after they narrowly missed the postseason last year with an overtime loss on the final day against the Raiders.

Various options offensively

Averaging 23.0 points, the offense ranked in the middle of the pack in the 2022 regular season. However, there was a sense in the final third of the season that the offensive performance was much more stable when wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams were on the field together. In addition, they have another hugely important piece of personnel in their ranks in running back Austin Ekeler. The latter was also readily involved in the passing game in the past and caught eight passes in the first duel between the Jaguars and Chargers, for example. The prediction that he will follow up his 18 touchdowns in the regular season with his first touchdown in the postseason seems anything but logical.

The defence was also much improved towards the end of the season and meanwhile Joey Bosa is back, who is one of the difference makers of this unit. The latter, incidentally, was injured early in the season, in week three against the Jaguars of all teams. With him, the defensive line will be able to pressure the opposing quarterback and make the passing game even more difficult.

Key Players:
QB: Justin Herbert
RB: Austin Ekeler
WR: Keenan Allen
TE: Gerald Everett
K: Dustin Hopkins

Jacksonville Jaguars – Los Angeles Chargers Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

Lawrence vs. Herbert! It is by no means out of the question that this is one of the duels that will define the NFL for years or decades to come. The Jaguars clearly beat the Chargers in the first meeting of the season. The odds of Jacksonville beating Los Angeles a second time are definitely appealing.

We can also imagine an offensive game, as expected by the bookmakers. The over/under line of 47.5 points is the highest line of the entire wildcard round. The game in September reached that mark with a final score of 38:10.

Jacksonville Jaguars – Los Angeles Chargers Tip

Over the whole season, the visitors are arguably the better and more mature team. Not only is Herbert Lawrence a year ahead of them in terms of development, but overall this is probably true of the entire squad. In our eyes, Los Angeles are rightly favourites for the match in Florida, but the home side should not be underestimated. On the one hand, they showed an outstanding performance in the first meeting, which of course took place almost four months ago, and on the other hand, they have been in top form recently. Nevertheless, our final choice is for the visitors to win at EverBank Field Stadium.

Despite two defensive units that have improved recently, we believe both offenses can move the ball and score points. That the mark of at least 48 points falls does not seem unlikely.

As alluded to in the Los Angeles section, we trust running back Austin Ekeler to have at least one successful end zone visit. However, the value for this tip is relatively manageable.