Preliminary duel in the battle for a place in the semis
For twelve years, London’s O2 Hall was the venue for the ATP Finals. This is now history and this year the year-end tournament will be held in Turin for the first time. The first matches were already played on Sunday and the last two players to enter the tournament are Stefanos Tsitsipas of Greece and Andrey Rublev of Russia on Monday evening.
The duo are in the “green group”, which is still completed by world number one Novak Djokovic and Norwegian debutant Casper Ruud. The “Djoker” is naturally considered the big favourite. These two players will probably be considered for the second semi-final place. Accordingly, the first group match can already bring a preliminary decision. According to the current odds, Tsitsipas is seen as the slight favourite against Rublev by the best bookmakers.
Both players have not been in the best of form in recent weeks and doubts are therefore quite justified. From a sober point of view, the duel can probably be described as a “50:50” game. The realisation of the first day of the tournament on Sunday was that the indoor court is extremely fast. Many short points, hardly any break chances and several tiebreaks are therefore to be expected.
Stefanos Tsitsipas – Statistics & current form
The now 23-year-old Greek already won the ATP Finals two years ago when he brought Dominic Thiem to his knees in a thrilling final. In Turin, Tsitsipas will now be making his third appearance in the top eight event and after his first-round exit last year, he is now looking to reach the semi-finals again
Famose clay court season
In the current review of the year, the likeable Greek will highlight his clay court season in particular. He won two tournaments in Monte Carlo (Masters) and Lyon, and also played his first GS final at the French Open, which he lost to Novak Djokovic despite leading 2-1.
However, he not only does well on the red clay, but with his aggressive game he also feels at home on the fast courts. With his strong serve, he will probably get many free points against Rublev.
For an optimal preparation for the ATP Finals, the Greek did not want to take any risks and at the Masters in Paris he retired early after six games against Alexei Popyrin due to problems with his right shoulder. It was only the second time in his career that the Greek had to abandon a match early. Nevertheless, he gave the all-clear and does not see himself limited for the last highlight of the year
No final since Roland Garros
Soberly speaking, the second half of the season did not necessarily go according to plan for the current world number four. The final at Roland Garros was the last final he reached. The hard court season was a bit mixed and the preparation for the tour finals was not ideal.
The fast indoor surface certainly suits his strong serve and thundering forehand. That’s why the slightly lower odds on the Greek in the opener between Tsitsipas and Rublev are understandable.
Andrey Rublev – Statistics & current form
A year ago, Andrey Rublev was in superb form in the run-up to the ATP Tour Finals, rushing from one success to the next. At the big finale of the year, he lacked a bit of dash and after two defeats, he was eliminated early on.
Weak form in the last two months
Unlike last year, the 24-year-old Russian will not be brimming with confidence these days as his second half of 2021 has been largely disappointing. The eight-time ATP tournament winner has suffered repeated early defeats in recent weeks.
Of the last seven matches on the ATP Tour, the world number five was able to win just two. With veteran Adrian Mannarino or Botic van de Zandschulp, Rublev also lost to much weaker players. Taylor Fritz – current number 23 – was even the best-ranked player to win against Rublev.
Especially after his early exit in his home country Moscow, Rublev confirmed that he currently has problems in the mental area. The ease from last year is no longer noticeable and he increasingly tenses up in tight situations.
Rublev is the more complete player
Stefanos Tsitsipas can justifiably be called an all-rounder and yet Russian Andrey Rublev is certainly the more complete player. In contrast to hard hitter Tsitsipas, the Russian’s game is more varied. Moreover, he is able to break free from the defensive time and again.
A strong forehand, a very pronounced angular game and a good serve round off Rublev’s profile. Weaknesses – apart from the mental area mentioned – are hardly discernible. And the most recent results are therefore certainly a starting point for making a prediction in the direction of the Greek in Tsitsipas’ match against Rublev.
Stefanos Tsitsipas – Andrey Rublev Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to Head: 5:4
This will be the tenth time the two players will face each other in the evening session in Turin on Monday. After nine completed matches, the Greek Stefanos Tsitsipas, who is one year younger, has a razor-thin lead. Tsitsipas has won five times and Andrey Rublev four times.
The duel already took place a year ago at the ATP Finals – at that time still in London. In a close match, Tsitsipas won by a razor-thin margin in the tiebreak of the third set. There have been two matches so far in 2021, both players celebrated a victory.
Stefanos Tsitsipas – Andrey Rublev Tip
If everything goes according to plan, Novak Djokovic will win this group and debutant Casper Ruud will have to learn the ropes. Accordingly, the winner of this duel will have the best chances of reaching the semi-finals. A close duel can be expected here and due to the fast conditions, betting on over 23.5 games seems to be a good option for Tsitsipas against Rublev.
For those who want to commit to a winner, a bet on the slightly favoured Greek Stefanos Tsitsipas is recommended. The Greek has a razor-thin lead in the head-to-head, has more experience at the ATP Finals and the recent weak Rublev results also speak for this bet.
The fast surface in Turin is also an argument that suits hard-hitter Stefanos Tsitsipas better. Therefore, in the green group between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Andrey Rublev, six units are used as a stake at good betting odds when betting on the Greek.
