Does the local madam once again defy the underdog role?
The ranks have thinned out in the 144th women’s singles match of the US Open. The crowd at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center can still hope that the winner’s trophy will go to an American woman again this year. Basically, our tip for Paula Badosa against Emma Navarro leans towards the local heroine, who was able to eliminate none other than defending champion Coco Gauff in the round of 16
While the prediction for Paula Badosa against Emma Navarro must take into account that the only singles match between the two opponents in this quarter-final so far went to the Spaniard, who beat the American 2:1 in Rome in 2024. However, that match took place on clay and is therefore not overly meaningful for this hard court duel in New York City
It should also be noted that Paula Badosa has never made it past the second round at Flushing Meadows in the run-up to this year’s US Open. What’s more, she didn’t have to overcome a single top player on her way to her first quarter-final in New York City. In a duel that should basically take place on an equal footing and can certainly be seen as a 50:50 match, it therefore makes the most sense to bet on the supposed odds-on outsider in the form of Emma Navarro.
Paula Badosa – Statistics & current form
Current position in the world rankings: 29
Position in the seeding list: 26
The 26-year-old Spaniard Paula Badosa can certainly be considered a local hero at Flushing Meadows. After all, she was born in 1997 in the New York borough of Manhattan, where her Spanish parents worked in the fashion industry. At the age of seven, however, Stefanos Tsitsipas’ partner returned to Barcelona, which is why she also plays under the Spanish flag.
Although Paula Badosa favors hard court, she celebrated her greatest success in her junior career at Roland Garros. In 2015, she won the girls’ singles at the French Open without dropping a set, which is why her transition to the WTA Tour went very smoothly that year
Paula Badosa faces a seeded opponent for the first time
The 26-year-old can now look back on a total of four tournaments won on the WTA Tour. After a title-less 2023, she recently triumphed at the Mubadala Citi DC Open in Washington DC as part of the US Open Series.
However, the Spaniard only beat one top 20 player there, Liudmila Samsonova (WTA 13). Ultimately, this was mainly because the Russian had to retire after one set due to injury. Paula Badosa also didn’t face a single opponent from the seeded list in the first four rounds of the US Open 2024
Paula Badosa with a poor record against top players
Basically, the betting tip for Paula Badosa against Emma Navarro must therefore take into account that the WTA world number 29 has benefited to a certain extent from luck of the draw. In 2024 alone, the 26-year-old has not yet celebrated a single victory against a reigning top 10 player. In any case, she struggles as soon as the level rises dramatically.
And yet it should not be ignored that Paula Badosa already celebrated a 2:1 comeback victory against her opponent in the quarter-finals in Rome in May 2024, which is why the bookmakers now see her as the favorite with an approximate probability of victory of around 54 percent.
Emma Navarro – statistics & current form
Current position in the world rankings: 12
Position in the seeding list: 13
The 23-year-old Emma Navarro was also born in New York City in 2001, the daughter of billionaire entrepreneur Ben Navarro. Unlike her quarter-final opponent, however, she plays under the American flag. The crowd will therefore almost certainly be on her side.
The current world number twelve was able to impressively confirm her clearly improving form in Flushing Meadows. Navarro had already reached the third round at her Australian Open debut this year in January 2024. She then reached the round of 16 at the French Open and most recently the first Grand Slam quarter-final of her young career at Wimbledon.
Emma Navarro eliminated the defending champion
If she continues to improve, the local heroine would now have to storm into her first Grand Slam semi-final. The odds of the best bookmakers are against Paula Badosa winning against Emma Navarro. However, her path to the quarter-finals was definitely the more impressive one.
In contrast to Paula Badosa, Emma Navarro has already beaten two players from the seeding list. After her 2:1 victory over Marta Kostyuk (WTA 19), she even pulled off the aforementioned 2:1 coup against defending champion Coco Gauff (WTA 3). A match in which the 23-year-old defied a pretty clear underdog role in a highly impressive manner
Emma Navarro is on the verge of her 50th win in 2024
It is fair to say that Coco Gauff stood in her own way a little and helped Navarro’s success with no fewer than 19 double faults and a first serve percentage of just 46%. Nevertheless, the world number twelve was on hand when it mattered, fending off three out of five break points and winning twelve of her 14 service games.
This also makes Emma Navarro’s record for the year, who won her first ever singles title on the WTA Tour in Hobart, Australia, at the start of the year, highly impressive. The triumph over Coco Gauff was her 49th singles win in 68 matches this season
Paula Badosa – Emma Navarro head-to-head comparison / H2H result
Head to head: 1:0
In May of this year, the two players clashed in the second round of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia in Rome. In the Eternal City, Emma Navarro won the first set impressively 6:1, but after losing the next two sets 4:6 and 2:6, she was ultimately beaten 1-2. The Spaniard therefore leads the direct comparison
Paula Badosa – Emma Navarro tip
Basically, we expect a close match at eye level, in which aspects such as form on the day are likely to play a major role. The Spaniard may be ahead in the “head-to-head” comparison, but she has yet to knock out a heavyweight at Flushing Meadows. Emma Navarro did just that on Sunday with her victory over defending champion Coco Gauff. Our prediction for Paula Badosa against Emma Navarro therefore leans slightly towards the American
The Spaniard has only just won the preparatory tournament in Washington to kick off the US Open Series. However, Emma Navarro’s overall record for the year is also somewhat better with 49 wins from 68 singles matches, which is why there is a lot of value in the supposed underdog bet. We therefore recommend betting on the American to reach the semi-finals
