Will the Djoker make short work of the Peruvian?
While Novak Djokovic won his three matches at the French Open 2023 outright 3-0 almost as expected, Juan Pablo Varillas’ entry into the last 16 of the ATP Tour’s only Grand Slam tournament played on clay is a fist-pumping surprise.
The Peruvian had never won a singles match at a Grand Slam before Roland Garros. Accordingly, it is unlikely that Novak Djokovic’s betting on the underdog’s surprise victory against Juan Pablo Varillas will come off.
But it is worth noting the incredible resilience with which the Peruvian underdog has performed so far. In all three matches Varillas was behind after the first set – in the first two rounds he even came back from a 0:2 set deficit. The Peruvian always prevailed 3:2 in very long matches, which may well have been exhausting. The forecast for Novak Djokovic against Juan Pablo Varillas is correspondingly tempting: he can also take a set from the Serbian superstar.
The Djoker should be warned, however, by Juan Pablo Varillas’ three previous appearances. The Serbian took his three previous opponents very seriously and always won 3:0 in the end. Even external influences such as the spectators, who continuously booed the former world number one, who is quite capable of polarising, in his third round, could not upset Novak Djokovic.
Consequently, we assume that the Serb will make short work of the Peruvian. We therefore recommend betting that a maximum of 28 games will be needed before the winner is decided.
Novak Djokovic – Statistics & current form
Current world ranking: 3
Position in the seedings: 3
In his long and successful career, the 36-year-old Serb Novak Djokovic has won a staggering 93 singles titles on the ATP Tour – including 22 overall victories at the four Grand Slam tournaments.
Should the current world number three win his 23rd Grand Slam at Roland Garros, he would not only take the sole lead in the all-time best list (he currently shares record winner status with Rafael Nadal, who has also won 22 Grand Slam tournaments), but with his third overall victory at the French Open after 2016 and 2021, he would also become the first player in history to claim a third career Grand Slam.
None knocked out in the French Open last 16 in any of the 16 previous occasions
There is still a long way to go to win the tournament, of course. So far, however, the Djoker has not been burning with fire. The Serbian recorded three straight 3-0 wins on the way to his 17th round of 16 at Roland Garros. In the 16 matches in the round of the best 16 players so far, Nole has always prevailed without exception.
The odds are now clearly in favour of Novak Djokovic against Juan Pablo Varillas, who showed such focus that even the boos and whistles during his break for treatment in his match against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina were unable to throw him off course.
Won 23 of 27 singles matches in 2023
In total, the Djoker has already won 23 singles matches in 2023, with only four losses. The Serb, who already won the Australian Open in January despite pain, can start his round of 16 match with a correspondingly broad chest.
In the third round against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, his service was shaky at times and he only won 56% of the points (the Serb served 64 out of 114). However, with a view to the quota of 50% of won return points, a sovereign 3:0 could be played out in the end, even in a somewhat more attackable phase, which underlines the enormous quality of the world number three.
Juan Pablo Varillas – Statistics & current form
Current world ranking: 94
Position in the seedings: unseeded
The 27-year-old Peruvian Juan Pablo Varillas only made his debut at Grand Slam level in 2022. A year ago, he held his own in qualifying at Roland Garros and then faced his first major coup in the first round.
After leading 2:0 against Félix Auger-Aliassime, who was ranked ninth in the world at the time, the man from Lima had to admit defeat in the end with 2:3. This year, on the other hand, the Peruvian won a singles match at Grand Slam level for the first time in his career.
In the last 16 for the first time with three comeback wins
In the process, Juan Pablo Varillas turned around a 0:2 set deficit not only in the first round against Juncheng Shang, but also in the second round against Roberto Bautista Agut into a sensational 3:2 victory.
The win against the experienced Spaniard was followed by another highlight when the Peruvian also bowled out Poland’s Hubert Hurkacz 3:2. This is the first time the 27-year-old has reached the last 16 of a Grand Slam tournament, which will set a new career high for him regardless of the outcome of the match.
Winning the point 174 times on 425 opponent serves
The Peruvian has already climbed to 60th in the virtual ATP world rankings. If Novak Djokovic’s hopes of reaching the quarter-finals against Juan Pablo Varillas actually come true, he would no longer be able to take his place in the top 40 for the first time.
It has to be said, however, that his return qualities so far will probably not be enough to make the Serbian colossus waver. So far in the tournament, the 27-year-old Peruvian has scored on his opponent’s serve in only 174 of all 425 cases. That corresponds to a total quota of 40% return points won.
Novak Djokovic – Juan Pablo Varillas Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 0:0
Never before have the two athletes met in a singles match on the ATP Tour. Consequently, there is no head to head data available that could be used in the forecast for Novak Djokovic against Juan Pablo Varillas.
Novak Djokovic – Juan Pablo Varillas Tip
When it comes to Novak Djokovic vs Juan Pablo Varillas, the betting odds are clearly swinging in the direction of the Serbian high-flyer, who has once again reached the last 16 of the French Open with three commanding 3-0 victories – a run that has seen Nole win 16 times at Roland Garros. His Peruvian challenger impressed with very resilient performances and no less than three comeback wins, but should now very clearly be pushing his limits in our eyes.
Practically everything points to a clear three-set victory for the former world number one, who is fighting for the top position in the ATP world rankings together with Carlos Alcaraz at Roland Garros. We assume that this round of 16 match will be decided comparatively quickly.
