Will the Canadian beat the Italian late bloomer?
The 126th French Open women’s singles has been full of surprises so far. Two of these surprises are now facing each other in the quarter-finals. On the one hand, Martina Trevisan, who has only made it to the main draw in seven Grand Slam tournaments in her career, surprisingly reached the round of the best eight women. And on the other hand, Leylah Fernandez, a 19-year-old, made it to the quarter-finals.
For the winner it will be the best run so far at Roland Garros, which could also lead to the grand final. Coco Gauff or Sloane Stephens are tough, but not completely overpowering opponents in the semifinals. In the run-up to the match between Martina Trevisan and Leylah Fernandez, the odds are swinging in favour of the Canadian.
While Leylah Fernandez had to go the full distance of three sets in her last two matches, Martina Trevisan celebrated four straight 2-0 victories. It is likely to be a close match in this quarter-final, in which we expect a longer match. Therefore, the best value for Martina Trevisan against Leylah Fernandez is a bet on more than 19.5 games.
Martina Trevisan – Statistics & current form
Current ranking in the world rankings: 59
Position in the seedings: unseeded
Martina Trevisan is an absolute late starter. The lady from Florence was very successful as a junior, but then had to temporarily end her career in 2010. Due to family problems and an eating disorder, the now 28-year-old needed psychological care.
In 2014, the Italian returned and, after three years on the ITF, made the late leap to the WTA Tour for the 2017 season. Three years later, Trevisan qualified for the main draw of a Grand Slam tournament for the first time at the 2020 Australian Open.
Won nine of the eleven singles at the French Open
The Italian first attracted attention in the same year when she stormed into the quarter-finals at the 2020 French Open, which had been moved to the autumn, in her first ever appearance at Roland Garros.
On that occasion, she lost to the eventual overall winner Iga Swiatek. Nevertheless, the 28-year-old had tasted blood, but only managed to win three more matches in the five Grand Slam tournaments that followed. That makes her next run at Roland Garros all the more surprising, where she has reached the quarter-finals for the second time since 2020 after four 2-0 wins. In total, this means Trevisan has won nine of her 11 singles matches at the French Open.
Martina Trevisan – Statistics & Current Form
Current world ranking: 59
Position in the seedings: unseeded
Martina Trevisan is an absolute late starter. The lady from Florence was very successful as a junior, but then had to temporarily end her career in 2010. Due to family problems and an eating disorder, the now 28-year-old needed psychological care.
In 2014, the Italian returned and, after three years on the ITF, made the late leap to the WTA Tour for the 2017 season. Three years later, Trevisan qualified for the main draw of a Grand Slam tournament for the first time at the 2020 Australian Open.
Won nine of the eleven singles at the French Open
The Italian first attracted attention in the same year when she stormed into the quarter-finals at the 2020 French Open, which had been moved to the autumn, in her first ever appearance at Roland Garros.
On that occasion, she lost to the eventual overall winner Iga Swiatek. Nevertheless, the 28-year-old had tasted blood, but only managed to win three more matches in the five Grand Slam tournaments that followed. That makes her next run at Roland Garros all the more surprising, where she has reached the quarter-finals for the second time since 2020 after four 2-0 wins. In total, this means Trevisan has won nine of her 11 singles matches at the French Open.
Leylah Fernandez – Statistics & Current Form
Current world ranking: 18
Position in the seedings: 17
Leylah Fernandez held her own in the 2019 French Open girls’ singles and secured a Grand Slam title in her junior career. This success was particularly impressive as the Canadian had gone the entire course of the tournament without dropping a set.
Even after her subsequent jump onto the WTA Tour, the 19-year-old has already been able to convince. Last autumn, Fernandez reached the final of the US Open, where she remained winless.
First time in the French Open quarter-finals
Nonetheless, at Roland Garros, the WTA world number 18 is currently building on her time in junior competition.
After Fernandez was eliminated in the first round at the Australian Open 2022, she has now reached the quarter-finals at the French Open for the first time after four wins.
However, the Canadian had to tremble twice from the third round onwards. First, after a total of 33 tough games, she narrowly beat Belinda Bencic 2-1 and then she had to go the full distance of three sets in her round of 16 match against Amanda Anisimova.
Strong return game, but weak second serve
In the end, the difference in the close duels was the strong return game of the 19-year-old, who won 44.5% of all points on her opponent’s serve in the last two rounds. However, Fernandez needs to improve her own second serve, which she used to win only 45% of the time – also because she committed a total of twelve double faults in both matches.
The US Open finalist is the favourite going into the match. Looking at the performance data, however, it could be another tough battle, which is why we favour a tip of more than 19.5 games for Martina Trevisan against Leylah Fernandez.
Martina Trevisan – Leylah Fernandez Direct comparison / H2H-balance
Head to head: 0:0
Both players face each other for the first time in a match. There is therefore no head-to-head data available to factor into the prediction for Martina Trevisan vs. Leylah Fernandez
Martina Trevisan – Leylah Fernandez Tip
The Canadian, who has won more titles and had more impressive runs in Grand Slam tournaments than her nine-year older opponent in her short career, is generally favoured going into the match. However, the fact that Martina Trevisan has come through the tournament without losing a set should not be overlooked, while Leylah Fernandez has been struggling lately due to a weak second serve and a high error rate.
We see a lot of value in betting that at least 20 games are needed before the semi-final opponent of either Coco Gauff or Sloane Stephens is decided. The Italian also played 25 games in her two-set victory over Aliaksandra Sasnovich in the last 16.
