Is Thiem rewarded for the big effort?

Dominic Thiem continues to search for his form on the ATP Tour. After persistent injury breaks and a mental slump, the 2020 US Open winner currently stands with a pitiful record of one win from nine matches this season. The Lower Austrian also suffered a first-round exit the previous week in Indian Wells, where he had won in 2019.

If it were up to the current world ranking of the former number three, “Domi” would not even be in the main draw at the next Masters event in Miami this week. Thanks to a wild card, however, the former world class player will be able to prove himself again. The first match is against a strong Italian, who seems beatable on paper. Nevertheless, between Sonego and Thiem, higher odds are offered for betting on the Austrian.

In view of the fact that the 29-year-old, who has long since gone down in the country’s tennis history as one of only two Austrian Grand Slam winners, at least proved to be in rising form last week and that his opponent from Turin, who is two years younger than him, has by no means played the stars out of the sky in the current calendar year, it may well be a viable option to make a prediction on the “Dominator” ahead of Thursday’s scheduled clash between Sonego and Thiem.

Lorenzo Sonego – Statistics & current form

At 27, Lorenzo Sonego is at a crossroads in his career. About a year ago, the Turin-born right-hander reached his best result to date with a 22nd place in the world rankings. There were many indications that the tall Italian could even make it into the top 20. After a disappointing second half of the season, in which things did not go so well on clay, grass and finally also on the hard courts of this world, he is currently only 59th in the rankings.

The 2023 season has so far been a symbol of the constant ups and downs of coach Gipo Arbino’s protégé. In five of the eight tournaments, the team was already eliminated in the first main round. Only in Dubai and in the Montpellier hall did Sonego celebrate two victories in a row before he had to give up in the quarter-finals. Last week, the Italian lost his opening match somewhat surprisingly against Jason Kubler in two sets.

Sonego will depend on his form on the day

Because the 27-year-old repeatedly hints at his potential and on good days can put good opponents in trouble with his finesse and very powerful forehand, but is not comfortable in the role of favourite and makes too many simple mistakes at important moments, we would refrain from making a prediction on the Turin native in the run-up to the match Sonego vs Thiem.

It would definitely be risky to bet on a player who, including this season, has had a negative record on hard court for four years in a row, who almost didn’t get a leg on the ground in Indian Wells a week ago and who failed several times at his opening hurdle in 2023. But if you think it’s too risky to bet on the Austrian’s victory, you can at least aim for the odds on a games handicap between Sonego and Thiem in favour of the former Grand Slam triumphant

Dominic Thiem – Statistics & current form

All of Dominic Thiem’s loyal supporters are currently clinging to every little glimmer of hope when it comes to the question of whether their favourite tennis player can ever make it to the top of the world again? After two years marked by injuries in 2021 and 2022, the big comeback in the Top 20 was supposed to happen in 2023. At the moment, however, the Lower Austrian is about as far away from such a world ranking position as Andy Murray is from another Grand Slam title.

The glimmers of hope mentioned at the beginning do exist, however: For example, Thiem played a very good match at times against Frenchman Adrian Mannarino the previous week. In the decisive tie-break of the third set, the 29-year-old was already ahead, but missed a possible place in the tournament due to slight errors.

When will Thiem break the deadlock?

Statistically, there were also positive signals. Among other things, “Domi” increased his forehand hit rate to over 80%, used his dreaded topspin in almost 95% of all cases and seemed to be mentally on top of things, also spurred on by his very euphoric box.

The fact that it was not enough for his second win of the season, which would have been extremely important for his ranking, was due to short lapses in concentration and an opponent who simply played the ball back and waited for Thiem’s stray forehand in the decisive moments.

But since Lorenzo Sonego is another attacking player who will certainly make unforced errors, we think it is anything but impossible that the former world number three, who has dropped to 106th position in the rankings, will make it to the second round of the Masters in Miami. The 17-time ATP Tour tournament winner has everything it takes to be successful. If he continues to hone his consistency and confidence, the proverbial buck could be turned in the south of the USA.

Lorenzo Sonego – Dominic Thiem Direct comparison / H2H balance

Two times the two players have faced each other on the ATP Tour so far. Both times on clay, by the way. In 2019, Thiem won in two sets in his Austrian homeland and reached the final. In 2021, Sonego returned the favour in Rome in three sets. Three of the five sets played between Sonego and Thiem went into a tie-break. It is quite possible that such a tie-break will also have to be played on Thursday.

Lorenzo Sonego – Dominic Thiem Tip

With a wild card, Dominic Thiem will be looking for his second win in his tenth match on the ATP Tour this season. After the Lower Austrian narrowly lost out to Adrian Mannarino in three sets the previous week, but put in a really good performance, we don’t think he is necessarily the underdog in his upcoming first-round match at the Masters in Miami against Lorenzo Sonego.

Although the betting odds between Sonego and Thiem make the Italian the favourite, it should give you pause for thought that the 27-year-old from Turin has already been eliminated in the first round in five of the eight tournaments in 2023 and last week in Indian Wells was nowhere near as strong as the former Grand Slam winner from Wiener Neustadt.

But since we are afraid of taking a big risk in the form of a win bet on “Domi”, we have decided to play a bet on the games handicap (+2.5) between Sonego and Thiem in favour of the former world number three.