Tsitsipas favourite for the first time in his fourth AO semi-final

There was not much excitement in the first two men’s quarter-finals at the Australian Open 2022. Neither player had much trouble and could thus save energy for the match in the final round. Physical problems will not affect the outcome of the match.

The bookmakers see the bet on the 24-year-old Greek in the duel between Karen Khachanov and Stefanos Tsitsipas as extremely likely. The betting odds on offer imply a winning probability of over 70 per cent.

So will the first men’s semi-final also be a relatively one-sided duel? There is certainly a danger of that, because the direct comparison also speaks a very clear language in favour of the Greek. Khachanov has had a relatively easy draw so far and will now have to undergo the first real acid test. For the Russian, it will be the second semi-final in his career (after the US Open in 2022), while Tsitsipas has far more GS experience to show. For him, it will even be the fourth semi-final at the Happy Slam Down Under.

The starting position seems to be very clear and arguments in favour of a victory for the Russian are not really to be found. Therefore, in our top tips between Khachanov and Tsitsipas, our predictions are also oriented towards the clearly favoured Greek.

Karen Khachanov – Statistics & Current Form

Bernabe Zapata Miralles, Jason Kubler, Frances Tiafoe, Yoshihito Nishioka and Sebastian Korda were the opponents of Karen Khachanov so far. Without offending any of these players, this is not necessarily the most difficult way to reach the semi-finals of a Grand Slam tournament. The match against Tiafoe was on a knife edge at times, but in the end it was the only match in which Khachanov had to struggle a bit.

Korda clearly handicapped from set two onwards

The Korda match was contested for just under an hour. In the first set, Khachanov promptly started with a break, but gave it away when serving out, only to win the tiebreak 7:5 a little later. The 26-year-old has thus won all four tiebreaks in the Australian Open so far. This strength of nerve is undoubtedly a plus point, which can also be attributed to the superb service.

Early in the second set, Korda injured himself on a forehand return and was visibly handicapped afterwards. Even an injury treatment did not bring any improvement and after just 1:50 hours, the son of former AO winner Petr Korda realised that there was no point in continuing to play. Twelve aces, 80 percent won points on the first serve, only 18 unforced errors and four breaks were the key data of an unchallenged victory.

However, these good statistics should be taken with a grain of salt and are not necessarily a yardstick for the semi-finals. Khachanov is certainly in good shape, but so far he has not had to push his limits. Tsitsipas is a completely different calibre than his previous opponents. The chances of a surprise between Khachanov and Tsitsipas are slim, so betting on the underdog is not recommended.

Stefanos Tsitsipas – Statistics & current form

The victory in the quarter-finals against the largely unknown Jiri Lehecka was quite to be expected. The three-set win also marked the Greek’s sixth Grand Slam quarter-final. So far, when Tsitsipas has reached the last eight, betting on victory has always been the right decision. In the semi-finals, on the other hand, he has only been able to celebrate one victory so far – at the French Open in 2021. In his only GS final so far, he lost to Novak Djokovic, a scenario that could repeat itself on Sunday.

After the early death of the favourite at this year’s Australian Open 2023, the current world number four was quickly singled out as “Nole’s” biggest rival. A look at his results so far in recent weeks clearly underlines this role. Shortly before Christmas, he won against Norrie, Ruud and Rublev at the invitation tournament. At United Cup, Greece had to admit defeat in the semi-finals, but Stefanos Tsitsipas won all four singles matches (Dimitrov, Goffin, Coric, Berrettini). Together with his victories in Melbourne, Tsitsipas is now looking at a series of twelve wins en suite.

No loss of serve against Lehecka

In the round of 16 against Jannik Sinner, he almost gave away a 2:0 lead, but saved himself a round in the decisive tiebreak. Jiri Lehecka, a Czech who had not won a Grand Slam match before the Australian Open 2023, only managed to keep the match open in the first set. As the match progressed, his far greater experience prevailed. Without losing a single serve (all eight break points were saved), Djoker’s greatest opponent underlined his outstanding form.

In his career, Tsitsipas has celebrated nine tournament victories so far and although he has already reached the semi-finals four times in Melbourne, thus proving his strength on hardcourt outdoor, he has not yet won a tournament on this surface. He has won four tournaments each on clay and hardcourt indoor, and one triumph on grass. He has yet to win a hardcourt outdoors, but if that changes on Sunday, the bookmaker we tested, Bet365, is currently offering odds of 4.00 on him to win the tournament. Before that, however, he will have to face his favourite opponent and between Khachanov and Tsitsipas, the forecast for the Greek brings odds in the 1.40 range.

Karen Khachanov – Stefanos Tsitsipas Direct comparison / H2H record

Head to Head: 0:5

Between Khachanov and Tsitsipas, a look at the statistics highlights the low betting odds on 24-year-old Greek Stefanos Tsitsipas. The semi-final in Melbourne will be the sixth clash on the ATP Tour, but Karen Khachanov has yet to celebrate a victory. In these five matches, the Russian, who is two years older, has only won two sets. The last encounter took place last May, when Tsitsipas came back from a set down to win on the clay court in Rome.

Karen Khachanov – Stefanos Tsitsipas Tip

Rafael Nadal in 2019 and Daniil Medvedev in 2021 and 2022 ended Tsitsipas’ journey in the semi-finals of the Australian Open. This year, however, the Greek is the clear favourite and will face an opponent with whom he has the best memories. The clear favourite role for Khachanov against Tsitsipas with odds around 1.40 for the 24-year-old Greek is completely understandable. Khachanov is one of the world’s best, but there is a difference in quality compared to players like Stefanos Tsitsipas.

This thesis is also clarified by looking at the direct comparison. Khachanov has saved a lot of energy on the way to his second GS semi-final, but he hasn’t really been challenged yet either. Tsitsipas, on the other hand, is brimming with confidence after a fantastic start to the season and also showed against Sinner that he can master unpleasant situations.

The mixture of quality, direct comparison and experience between Khachanov and Tsitsipas also makes the prediction of a clear success for the favourite seem realistic. Betting odds of up to 3.25 for a clear 3:0 win for Tsitsipas are definitely interesting. Those who want to place a less risky bet for the first men’s semi-final will also find good opportunities with the game handicap Tsitsipas (-3.5) and the set handicap (-1.5) respectively.