Will Keys knock the French Open finalist out of the tournament?
After the Italian national soccer team disappointed as defending champions at EURO 2024, the eyes of Italian fans are once again on London these days. At the Wimbledon Championships, not only the world number one Jannik Sinner is a great hope for Italy, but also the high-flyer Jasmine Paolini. However, in our opinion, Jasmine Paolini against Madison Keys is not the best bet for the player from Tuscany to reach the quarter-finals of the women’s singles
Madison Keys has not let anything burn in the tournament so far with three smooth 2-0 victories, building on her good record at Wimbledon. At the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, the player from Rock Island, Illinois, now has 25 wins from 34 singles matches played. Jasmine Paolini’s prediction that the American will reach the quarter-finals of the Wimbledon Championships for the third time in her career against Madison Keys is correspondingly consistent
The head-to-head record also favors Madison Keys, who won her only singles match to date against Jasmine Paolini very comfortably 2-0 (6-1 and 6-1). Although this match took place in February 2023 and is therefore still relatively recent, a lot has happened in the Italian’s career since then. The player from Tuscany has only just reached the final of a Grand Slam tournament at the French Open and has won eleven of her last 13 singles matches on the WTA Tour.
Nevertheless, it seems most promising to us to bet on the much more experienced American to reach the quarter-finals. We even apply a small handicap of -3.5 games on Madison Keys. If this is too risky for you, you can either use one of the popular European Championship freebets to place a bet or bet on the American in the two-way system without a handicap.
Jasmine Paolini – Statistics & current form
Current position in the world rankings: 7
Position in the seeding list: 7
The 28-year-old Italian Jasmine Paolini is a late starter in the book. The current number seven in the WTA world rankings first appeared on the WTA Tour in 2015. However, it was not until four years later that she qualified for the main draw of a major tournament for the first time.
For another five years, however, she almost always finished in the first or second round at the major tournaments before she first won the Dubai Championships in 2024 in a complete surprise and then reached the final at the French Open, where she was beaten 2-0 by Iga Swiatek.
Jasmine Paolini continues to bite her way to the top of the world rankings
After her strong run at Roland Garros, the player from Castelnuovo di Garfagnana in Tuscany also made it to the semi-finals of the Rothesay International on grass. Now she is also in the last 16 at Wimbledon for the first time, where she had remained winless in three appearances in the women’s singles to date, after three straight 2-0 victories.
The odds are against Jasmine Paolini making it through to the next round against Madison Keys for the 28-year-old, who was clearly beaten 2:0 (1:6 and 1:6) by the American just over 16 months ago. However, the Italian is certainly not going into her third round of 16 match at a Grand Slam tournament (all three in 2024) without a chance
Jasmine Paolini survives the acid test in round three
The world number seven recently beat Bianca Andreescu, a former Grand Slam winner (US Open 2019), in the third round, getting a taste of center court action and once again impressing with venomous returns.
If her Canadian opponent had to come over the second serve, the point went to the strong-nerved Jasmine Paolini 60% of the time, who made just 13 unforced errors, meaning the match was never in the balance. Meanwhile, with just one service game conceded, the Italian’s service was also very poor overall
Madison Keys – statistics & current form
Current position in the world rankings: 13
Position in the seeding list: 12
The 29-year-old American Madison Keys joined the WTA Tour at the tender age of 14 and only needed five years to firmly establish herself in the most important division in women’s tennis while still a teenager.
The player from Rock Island, Illinois, has not only already won eight singles titles in her career – including major titles such as the 2019 Western & Southern Open – but has also shone with strong runs at the four Grand Slam tournaments.
Strong Wimbledon record for Madison Keys
The current WTA world number 13 has reached at least the quarter-finals in the women’s singles of a Grand Slam ten times. She even made it to the grand final at the 2017 US Open, but lost 2-0 to Sloane Stephens.
If Jasmine Paolini’s bet on her next win against Madison Keys pans out, the American would reach the round of the top eight for the eleventh time. Her Wimbledon record certainly speaks for it. The 29-year-old has won 25 of her 34 singles matches on the grass courts of the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club
Madison Keys goes into the round of 16 with a strong tailwind
Madison Keys is also in very good form. She won her last singles title at the Internationaux de Strasbourg on May 25, 2024 after four straight 2:0 victories against very well-known opponents. The American has also not lost a set at Church Road so far and celebrated three smooth 2-0 victories on her way to the round of 16.
In total, the 29-year-old has won eleven of her last 13 singles matches, with Marta Kostyuk (WTA 19), an opponent from the seeding list and reigning top 20 player, also being sent home with a 2-0 win. The strong-serving player from Illinois, who only had to serve out her second serve ten times in total and won the point on six of those ten occasions, only conceded a single service game and impressed with an 82 percent first serve percentage. That could also be half the battle in this round of 16
Jasmine Paolini – Madison Keys head-to-head / H2H record
Head to head: 0:1
The two players have only met once so far. In the first round of the Dubai Duty Free Championships 2023, Madison Keys left nothing to be desired against her Italian opponent. The American swept past a hopeless and overwhelmed Jasmine Paolini 2:0 (6:1 and 6:1), who will now get the chance for revenge
Jasmine Paolini – Madison Keys tip
Madison Keys won the only singles match between the two players so far with a commanding 6:1 and 6:1 in two crystal-clear sets. The American also has a much better Wimbledon record (25 wins from 34 singles matches) and, like her Italian challenger, has won eleven of her last 13 singles matches on the WTA Tour. That was even enough to win the title at the Internationaux de Strasbourg, which is why our prediction for Jasmine Paolini against Madison Keys is ultimately a win for the player from Rock Island, Illinois.
With the Italian’s upswing in mind, it should be nowhere near as one-sided as the last encounter. However, with a four-game lead, we think the American should be able to make it through to the quarter-finals, which is why we’re applying a handicap of -3.5 games to her
Betting odds of 2.00 are available for Jasmine Paolini against Madison Keys, which we play with four units at Bet-at-home.
