Will Sinner put the American title dreams to rest?

There were once again a few surprises at the 144th edition of the US Open. One of them is that for the first time in 18 years, an American is back in the final of the men’s singles. If Jannik Sinner wins against Taylor Fritz, it will be the first time in 21 years that an American tennis player has triumphed in the men’s singles of the traditionally last Grand Slam tournament of the calendar year.

At the moment, Taylor Fritz has to make do with the underdog role in the grand final. But with the crowd behind him, the local hero is guaranteed to give the world’s number one a good fight. It is therefore interesting to predict a worthy final match between Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz, which will not be decided one-sidedly in three sets, but could possibly even go the full distance, causing Morgan Riddle, Taylor Fritz’s partner, to have scheduling problems. The influencer was supposed to give a Pilates class in New York on Sunday, which she has now postponed

On paper, Jannik Sinner may well be the clear favorite as the world number one and this year’s Australian Open winner. The first Italian US Open finalist of all time had already been a hot candidate in the US Open 2024 overall winner prediction in the run-up to the tournament. However, it remains to be seen whether his fall in the semi-final, after which he had to be treated on the court, will really have no effect on the final.

If he offers anything, the hungry Taylor Fritz will certainly be on hand. A long and hard-fought final is practically pre-programmed, which is why we are betting that over 3.5 sets will be needed to decide the winner. Alternatively, the bet that at least one set will be decided in a tie-break is also very popular. Odds of 1.54 are available for this in the Bet365 app.

Jannik Sinner – Statistics & current form

Current position in the world rankings: 1
Position in the seeding list: 1

In a year of superlatives, 23-year-old Italian Jannik Sinner has now also made history at the US Open. The South Tyrolean is the first Italian ever to reach the final of the hard court Grand Slam in New York City.

However, he had already caused a sensation by reaching the semi-finals. He is now the very first player born after the turn of the millennium (2001) to reach at least the semi-finals at all four Grand Slam tournaments on the ATP Tour. In fact, he is the first player born after 1988 to achieve this feat

Only dropped two sets on his way to the final

It has to be said that Sesto’s appearance in the final has not gone down well everywhere. Due to the doping affair in the spring, which did not result in a ban, the Italian’s latest triumph has at least a slight flavor. However, with just two sets dropped on his way to the grand final, there is at least nothing wrong with the 23-year-old’s sporting performance.

Among other things, Jannik Sinner beat his nemesis Daniil Medvedev 3:1 in the quarter-finals before giving his British challenger Jack Draper, who vomited several times on the court during the match, no chance in the semi-finals either, despite falling in the meantime. The final score was 3:0 after 184 minutes of play

Jannik Sinner with a powerful second serve

In the run-up to the big final, the odds are now also clearly in favor of Jannik Sinner against Taylor Fritz, who once again conjured up incredible results on his serve in the semifinals.

The fact that the Italian scored points on his first serve 77 percent of the time may still be a solid but not very exciting figure. However, the fact that he won 25 points on the 34 times he had to use his second serve, meaning that he won 74 percent of his points on his second serve, is downright outstanding. With stats like that, he certainly won’t concede his service game too often in the final…

Taylor Fritz – Statistics & current form

Current position in the world rankings: 12
Position in the seeding list: 12

Although the 26-year-old American Taylor Fritz has finished the last two years in the top 10 of the ATP world rankings, he has only won one major title in his career to date. In 2022, he triumphed at the Indian Wells Masters at the start of the Sunshine Doubles.

At Grand Slam level, the Californian reached the quarter-finals four times in the run-up to this year’s US Open, where he always reached the final. This time, however, he sent the favored Alexander Zverev home 3:1 and advanced to the first all-American US Open semifinal since 2005 (Agassi vs. Ginepri).

Taylor Fritz with a weak record against top 10 players

Taylor Fritz is now the first American to reach the US Open final since the legendary Andy Roddick (2006), who was also the last American to win the tournament at the 2003 edition of the hard-court Grand Slam in New York City.

It is clear that the 26-year-old will have the crowd at the Arthur Ashe on his side. However, he will also need that support. So far, the current number twelve in the ATP world rankings has only won 25 of 63 singles matches against reigning top 10 players, which was mostly the reason why Fritz has so far been denied the really big titles

Does Taylor Fritz thrill the crowd at Flushing Meadows?

At the moment, Jannik Sinner’s bet on the local hero’s overall victory against Taylor Fritz is not under the best of auspices, as the Californian not only has a poor record against top 10 players, but also lost his own service game four times in the semi-final against compatriot Frances Tiafoe and only managed to fend off one of five break points.

However, the 26-year-old has already beaten Jannik Sinner once on a hard court in the USA, which is why he is unlikely to go into the match with the greatest respect. If he then plays another 42 winners (with 35 unforced errors) in addition to 16 aces, as he did in the semi-final, the final could quickly develop a certain momentum of its own with the crowd on his side

Jannik Sinner – Taylor Fritz Direct comparison / H2H result

Head to head: 1:1

The two players have faced each other twice on the ATP Tour courts so far and the head-to-head comparison is even with one win each time. In the first duel, Taylor Fritz beat Jannik Sinner 2-0 in the round of 16 of the Indian Wells Masters in 2021, who returned the favor two years later with a 2-1 win over the American in the quarter-finals at the same venue

Jannik Sinner – Taylor Fritz Tip

In the run-up to the big final between Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz, the betting odds of the best bookmakers are clearly in favor of Sinner, who already won his first Grand Slam title at the Australian Open at the beginning of the year. However, the first Italian US Open finalist of all time crashed in the semi-finals and could possibly be slightly handicapped. Taking a service game from the powerful American is unlikely to be too easy anyway, meaning that a fiercely contested final is already inevitable

Although a bet on the Californian’s overall victory is ultimately too risky, we still believe that the local hero can take at least one set from the man from Sesto. The prediction that Jannik Sinner will have to play at least four sets against Taylor Fritz to determine this year’s US Open winner is correspondingly good value