Will Swiatek win the French Open for the 3rd time?

Iga Swiatek is the measure of all things in women’s tennis at the moment. The Pole has been leading the world rankings for many weeks and has already won three Grand Slam titles at the age of 22. The lady from Warsaw seems to be particularly fond of the French Open. On Saturday, Swiatek could lift the winner’s trophy at Roland Garros for the third time.

The doubts about such a scenario are limited, because before the final between Iga Swiatek and Karolina Muchova, a bet on the dominant Pole is virtually without alternative. Last year’s winner did not lose a set in the entire tournament and Swiatek only gave up a few games. The 22-year-old has never been on the brink of defeat. We think it is unlikely that that will change in the final in Paris.

Surprise finalist Karolina Muchova has nothing to lose, but she looked very tired in her semi-final against Aryna Sabalenka. It was only an incomprehensible phase of weakness on the part of the world number two that tipped the match in the Czech’s favour in the third set. This is her first time in a Grand Slam title match and she will certainly have to come to terms with the events of the last two weeks. Also due to experience advantages and mental aspects, the prediction of an outright success of the favourite between Swiatek and Muchova seems to be obvious.

Iga Swiatek – Statistics & current form

With Iga Swiatek everything just seems playfully easy. For many, the Pole is the best clay court player women’s tennis has seen in recent decades. Other experts already see the 22-year-old as the dominator of the scene in the coming years. These assessments are well-founded, as the right-hander already has 60 (!) weeks in the books as world number one.

In the previous year alone, the 1.76 metre tall Swiatek achieved two Grand Slam successes. In addition to the French Open, the Pole also won the US Open and thus embodies an impressive consistency that has not existed in top women’s tennis for a long time. Iga has a total of 20 singles titles on the tour, and her 37-match winning streak in 2022, which even set a new world record, remains unforgettable.

Swiatek is unbeatable on clay

The young lady from Warsaw is hard to beat on the red clay anyway. Since 2020, Swiatek has 62 wins from 69 matches on clay. The last time the world number one lost more than two matches on the slowest of all tennis surfaces was in 2019. This season, the Pole won the tournament in Stuttgart before losing the Madrid final to Sabalenka and retiring in the quarter-finals against Rybakina in Rome. In the run-up to this French Open, Swiatek dropped just two sets in twelve wins on clay.

In Paris, the dominance of the 22-year-old, who already enjoyed resounding success as a junior, has increased yet again. Iga won all six matches so far in two sets. In the semi-final, Beatriz Haddad Maia was the first opponent to win more than four games in a set. Swiatek won an incredible 40% (!) of all sets played at Roland Garros.

Against this background, the odds on a clear victory for the favourite in the big French Open 2023 final between Swiatek and Muchova should also be taken into account. A games handicap definitely offers itself, especially since even for a 2:0 set win the quotes don’t even approach 1.50. No one doubts that the best female tennis player in the world will win the French Open for the third time.

Karolina Muchova – Statistics & current form

For Karolina Muchova, Thursday’s win was a dream come true. For the first time ever, the 26-year-old Czech made it to a Grand Slam final. Although Muchova has already reached the quarter-finals of Wimbledon twice in her career and also surprisingly managed to make it to the semi-finals at the Australian Open 2021, the run to this final in Paris comes as a surprise.

At least in this year’s clay court season, the great success had not necessarily been in the offing. In Madrid, the ladies from Olomouc already failed in the second round, and in Rome they were eliminated in round four. At the French Open 2023, however, the six-foot-tall right-hander is currently outperforming herself. Muchova has only lost two sets in six matches and earned her place in the final with a sensational victory in the semifinals against world number two Aryna Sabalenka.

Can Muchova squeeze 100% out of her own body again?

After a strong first set, the Belarusian got better and better into the match, equalised after sets in the tie break and was already leading 5:2 in the deciding set before the match took a very curious turn. Sabalenka produced only errors, while the Czech, who looked tired and battered, was given point after point. Strictly speaking, it was not even her own playing strength that tipped the match, but only Muchova’s will and the mental breakdown of her actually superior opponent.

Because we observed some aspects of the 26-year-old’s game in this very wave-like semi-final, which should become a problem against such a consistent Iga Swiatek, we have little hope – also due to her physical condition (Muchova was on the court much longer than Swiatek) – that another surprise coup will succeed on Saturday. Instead, in the final between Swiatek and Muchova, we prefer the odds to predict a commanding and clear victory for the Pole, who is better in all respects.

Iga Swiatek – Karolina Muchova Direct comparison / H2H-balance

Swiatek and Muchova have met twice so far. Both duels went to the Czech, who won against the Pole on clay courts in 2019 and 2020. Three and four years later, however, Swiatek is playing at a completely different level, which is why it would be a huge sensation if the 26-year-old Muchova, who has a world ranking of No. 19, were to celebrate her first Grand Slam triumph on Saturday

Iga Swiatek – Karolina Muchova Tip

Until Thursday, everything pointed to the top two seeds Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka playing for the French Open title in Paris. But then Karolina Muchova spat in the soup of the Belarusian, celebrated an unbelievable comeback in the third set of the semi-final and is now in the first Grand Slam final of her career.

But the grapes are very high for the 26-year-old there. In the run-up to the final between Iga Swiatek and Karolina Muchova, the odds on the betting market paint a very clear picture in favour of the Pole, who has already won the title at Roland Garros in 2020 and 2022, has been at the top of the world rankings for many months and is currently without doubt the measure of all things in women’s tennis.

It should also be mentioned that Swiatek has not dropped a single set so far in the tournament and in 40% of all cases has not even allowed her opponent to win a game during a round. The dominance is overwhelming, the consistency impressive – Swiatek will not let her fourth Grand Slam title be taken away in our eyes.

We are therefore playing the tip between Swiatek and Muchova that there will be a maximum of 19 games in a one-sided final.