Will Zhang settle a four-year-old score?

In the wake of the pandemic, the Shanghai Masters last failed to take place three times in a row. For the first time since 2019, however, one of the ATP Tour’s most important singles titles will be played at the Qizhong Forest Sports City Arena. Curiously, this year’s round of 16 will feature a match that was played here four years ago when Hubert Hurkacz and Zhizhen Zhang met – tips and odds are of course available in this article.

On that occasion, the Pole won a hard-fought match against the Chinese local hero 2:0 (7:6 and 6:4). It took 23 games to decide the winner. In Hubert Hurkacz’s match against Zhizhen Zhang, it is correspondingly interesting to predict that the Pole, who is also the favourite this time according to the advertised betting odds, can once again prevail in less than 23.5 games.

While it must be said that Zhizhen Zhang has improved considerably since the last encounter. The Chinese player has not only broken into the top 100 of the ATP world rankings for the first time, but has even climbed to 60th place. He also has a positive annual record of 18 wins against 15 losses. Nevertheless, Hubert Hurkacz has not taken a break in the meantime, but has already celebrated resounding successes and his first Major titles.

In short, we are betting that the Pole, who has recently established himself in the Top 20, can once again hold his own against the Chinese in under 23.5 games. Meanwhile, we have analysed in detail in the linked article whether Hubert Hurkacz can also be counted among the Shanghai Masters 2023 favourites for the overall win.

Hubert Hurkacz – Statistics & current form

Current world ranking: 17
Position in the seedings: 16

The 26-year-old Pole Hubert Hurkacz is firmly established in the top group of the ATP Tour. He has already won six singles titles – including a first major title at the Miami Masters 2021.

This year, the 1.96-metre tall giant from Wroclaw triumphed at the Open 13 in Marseille when he secured a comparatively small ATP 250 with an outright 2-0 win over Benjamin Bonzi in the final.

Winning in ten of eleven in a Masters last 16

After finishing both the 2021 and 2022 seasons in the top 10 of the ATP World Rankings, Hurkacz has since slipped somewhat in the rankings. With a good annual record of 34 wins from 54 completed singles matches, he still occupies a respectable 17th place.

Consequently, Hubert Hurkacz’s betting on his entry into the quarter-finals against Zhizhen Zhang is very good. It would be the eleventh quarter-final the Pole has reached at Masters level. It is interesting to note that he has only failed to reach the last 16 of a Masters tournament in one of eleven cases.

With two straight 2-0 wins into the last 16

Things have gone relatively smoothly so far for Hubert Hurkacz at the Shanghai Masters, who has reached the last 16 with two straight 2-0 wins over Thanasi Kokkinakis (ATP 69) and Yu-hsiou Hsu (ATP 184).

The key to his success so far has once again been the Polish player’s almost undefendable service, who has already hit 29 aces in the course of the tournament. He did not concede a service game in either of the first two games and scored directly on the first serve in 75 out of 95 cases.

Zhizhen Zhang – Statistics & current form

Current world ranking: 60
Position in the seedings: unseeded

The 26-year-old Chinese Zhizhen Zhang enters the Shanghai Masters as an absolute local hero, as the world number 60 was born here in Shanghai, which is why he naturally has a very special connection to this outdoor tournament, which is traditionally held on hard court and is currently taking place for the twelfth time.

The last time it was held four years ago, Zhang made his debut at a major tournament on the ATP Tour, for which he received a wild card. However, despite a determined fight, he was defeated 2-0 by his current opponent Hubert Hurkacz directly in the first round.

Is Zhang settling a four-year-old score?

The Chinese consequently has a score to settle with the Pole, although with Hubert Hurkacz against Zhizhen Zhang, the odds are not too favourable that he will actually succeed in doing so four years later at the same venue.

After all, the 26-year-old has not yet had any breakthrough successes, although 2023 can certainly be seen as the year of his late breakthrough. For the first time, Zhizhen Zhang played all four Grand Slam tournaments, even reached the third round at the French Open and the US Open in 2023 and even reached the quarter-finals of a major tournament for the first time at the Madrid Masters.

Won 18 of 33 singles matches in 2023

Now the 26-year-old has also enjoyed three convincing victories at his home tournament in Shanghai, which has seen him advance to the last 16. Apart from dismantling Richard Gasquet (ATP 63), whom he swept off the court with 6:1 and 6:2, Zhizhen Zhang even beat Brandon Nakashima (ATP 122), who had previously defeated the favourite Holger Rune (ATP 5) with a surprisingly smooth 2:0.

Against the American, Zhizhen Zhang celebrated his 18th singles victory in 2023 with a 2-0 win, which compares to only 15 defeats. The Chinese player can even look back on a positive year and has moved up another three places in the virtual world rankings.

Hubert Hurkacz – Zhizhen Zhang Direct comparison / H2H-balance

Head to head: 1:0

There has only been one meeting between the two athletes, dating back to the last staging of the Shanghai Masters to date in 2019. On that occasion, Hubert Hurkacz prevailed smoothly in two sets against Zhizhen Zhang, but had to fight hard to win 7-6, 6-4.

Hubert Hurkacz – Zhizhen Zhang Tip

The betting odds on Hubert Hurkacz against Zhizhen Zhang are clearly in favour of the strong Polish player. After two strong seasons, both of which he finished in the top 10 of the ATP world rankings, he has “only” 34 wins from 54 singles matches this year and is only 17th in the rankings. Nevertheless, he already celebrated a 2-0 victory against the Chinese, who has no lasting successes on the ATP Tour, at the Shanghai Masters four years ago, which further underlines his role as a favourite.

Although the progress the Chinese player has made should not be ignored. Nevertheless, with Hubert Hurkacz against Zhizhen Zhang, it makes the most sense in our eyes to predict that the favoured Pole will ultimately hold his own against the Chinese local hero once again in under 23.5 games.