Will Ruud stop the Rune Theatre in Paris?
Holger Rune, despite his young age, already knows all the ropes. This became clear once again on Monday, when the 20-year-old Dane seemed to be struggling with his physicality, completely abandoning the fourth set against Francisco Cerundolo, only to secure his place in the quarter-finals in the decisive Champions Tie Break. The extroverted top talent, who tends to be arrogant, is definitely not making friends with this kind of behaviour.
But the sixth-ranked player on the world tour doesn’t need friends either. Wins are above everything for the youngster. On Wednesday, he could land the biggest success of his career if the bet on the Dane pays off in the quarter-final Rune vs. For the former French Open winner in the juniors, a quarter-final at a Grand Slam has been the maximum of emotions so far.
However, Holger Rune is considered a very thin underdog against his Norwegian opponent. Strictly speaking, however, the Rune vs. Ruud odds imply a completely even starting position and predict a duel at eye level.
While the 20-year-old had to go through five sets and certainly lost a lot of energy in the process, Casper Ruud had far fewer problems with Nicolas Jarry and managed to advance in three sets. Will the better fitness or the lower level of tiredness decide this quarter-final?
Holger Rune – Statistics & current form
A match with many ups and downs experienced Holger Rune on Monday on Suzanne Lenglen against Francisco Cerundolo. The round of 16 against his Argentinean opponent was somehow not really up for grabs.
At most, the unsuspecting would probably have spoken of high-class tennis. Instead, it was an orgy of mistakes by two players who experienced phases of highs and lows with beautiful regularity. The fact that this match not only went over five sets, but was also pushed to the limit in the Champions Tie Break was not even surprising.
How much of a show is Rune?
Holger Rune shouldn’t have cared in the end, because in the end the 20-year-old fixed his place in the quarter-finals, as he did last year. But he will definitely need to improve his performance there. The Dane was confronted with a total of 20 (!) break points against Cerundolo, hit ten (!) double faults and had 73 simple errors in the statistics at the end. The 72% points won at the net (42/58) were very helpful, but not necessarily to be expected against a strong passing player like Casper Ruud.
Apart from that, with a view to the Rune vs. Ruud prognosis, it should not be disregarded that the sixth-ranked player in the world physically weakened a lot in the meantime and even gave the feeling in one or the other break as if he had to give up right away. Whether this idiosyncrasy in “Djokovic style” was only a means to an end or the Northern European really has to struggle with physical deficits remains uncertain.
In top form, the former French Open junior champion would certainly be able to reach his first semi-final at a Grand Slam. Given the questionable state of fitness as well as the lack of consistency in some phases of the match, we are leaning towards the odds on the more stable Norwegian in the eagerly awaited quarter-final between Holger Rune and Casper Ruud.
Casper Ruud – Statistics & current form
Casper Ruud is playing a rather disappointing 2023 tennis year so far, with a record of 20 wins against eleven losses that does not match that of a world number four who has even been number two on the tour at one point. While the Norwegian conceded more defeats on hard court than he could celebrate victories, the 24-year-old has steadily improved on his favourite surface, clay court.
Just in time for the French Open 2023, the clay court specialist has returned to his best tennis. Although Casper Ruud still has unusual lapses in his game, which sometimes led to him having to go over four sets in two of the four matches so far, on balance the likeable right-hander is already showing again much of what led him to the final last year in these days in Paris. By the way, Ruud also made it to the final at the 2022 US Open.
Constancy is the keyword for Casper Ruud
In view of the experience advantage and the knowledge of having already won quarter-finals at Grand Slam tournaments, it is understandable in our eyes that the odds between Rune and Ruud swing slightly in the direction of the Norwegian. Should the son of former tennis pro Christian Ruud put in a concentrated performance and consistently bring his current level onto the court over a longer period of time, we are convinced that the path will once again lead to the semi-finals.
In terms of play, we see the biggest advantage in the fact that Casper Ruud produces far fewer errors, is an excellent defensive player and also has a good serve. He will therefore be able to attack many of his younger opponent’s service games.
Because the Norwegian also makes a very fit impression and wrapped up a complicated match in three tight sets against the outstanding server Jarry in the last 16, we also believe in the world number four on Wednesday, who would take his clay court record to 16 wins and five losses this season if he were to win.
Holger Rune – Casper Ruud Direct comparison / H2H record
The direct comparison is not negligible in this pairing. All five previous duels took place on the clay courts of this world. With four wins and one loss, the older of the two, Casper Ruud, leads the head-to-head. However, the most recent direct duel in the semi-finals of the Masters in Rome in mid-May brought Holger Rune his first success.
But while the Dane is playing an outstanding week in the Italian capital anyway, Ruud was more focused on his form build-up towards the French Open, which is why we now see the Norwegian ahead in the rematch.
Holger Rune – Casper Ruud Tip
Two top ten players from the north of Europe will duel for a place in the semi-finals of the French Open in Paris on Wednesday. Before the very interesting match between Rune and Ruud, the betting odds of the best betting providers, which are almost identical on the two-way market, provide additional excitement. The bookmakers have a hard time naming a clear favourite.
In our eyes, however, the advantages lie more with the Norwegian Casper Ruud, who already reached the final at Roland Garros last year, has won four of the previous five duels on clay against his opponent, who is four years younger, and also has more consistency and stability in his game. With Rune, as seen in the last 16, one has to fear that there will be many ups and downs again…
Not to be underestimated is also the physical aspect, which also makes the pendulum swing in Ruud’s direction. Rune had to fight physical problems against Cerundolo, and he also had to go the full distance, while his upcoming opponent left the court after three close sets.
The bottom line is therefore more in favour of the Norwegian, which is why we have decided to play the tip between Holger Rune and Casper Ruud on the victory of the world number four and last year’s French Open finalist.