Can Medvedev make friends with the red clay after all?
For the next two weeks, tennis fans will turn their eyes to the French city of love. The second Grand Slam tournament of the year is on the agenda in Paris, where a surprising number of players fancy their chances of the big coup at Roland Garros this year. The current world number two, Daniil Medvedev, is not necessarily considered a title contender. The Russian is anything but a clay court lover, but the draw meant well for him. Facundo Bagnis and Daniil Medvedev will face each other in the first round on Tuesday.
The Argentine is an absolute clay court specialist, but whether he will actually be able to eliminate the Russian in a best-of-five match? Hard to imagine, accordingly, betting odds of over 6.00 for the Gaucho are offered for Bagnis against Medvedev. The aforementioned good draw for Medvedev is underlined by the fact that the top stars such as Nadal, Djokovic, Zverev and Alcaraz can all be found in the upper tableau.
For the Russian, there could indeed be good opportunities to at least confirm his quarter-final performance from last year. Bagnis will be an unpleasant opponent, but probably not one to inflict Medvedev’s fifth first-round defeat in his sixth Paris appearance.
Facundo Bagnis – Statistics & current form
At the age of 32, the man from Rosario is already in the late autumn of his tennis career. Currently ranked number 103 in the world, his best ranking was 55 in January 2017. Bagnis is a typical Argentine who feels at home exclusively on the red clay. He rarely tries the other surfaces, because Bagnis is aware that he is at least two classes weaker there.
This is also impressively confirmed by a look at his career statistics. In his entire career (including Futures and Challenger matches), he has won 551 matches so far, and no less than 523 of these victories have come on clay. He also won all of his 15 titles (at Challenger level) on the red clay. However, despite his preference for clay, he has not been able to celebrate any major successes on the big stage, i.e. at Roland Garros. Only three times (2014, 2016 and 2021) did he reach the second round.
Task in Geneva
The dress rehearsal for the French Open, however, did not go satisfactorily from Bagni’s point of view. After surviving qualifying at the ATP tournament in Geneva, he had to retire in the first round against Georgian Nikoloz Basilashvili after the first set. Problems with his calf forced him to retire, with the upcoming French Open also playing a big part.
Bagnis is a clay-court rusher who will not have the ability to trouble Medvedev with pressure-packed play, but like a rubber wall he will return ball after ball. He may well turn into an unpleasant opponent, especially as the Russian is not particularly comfortable on clay court. Chances of winning at least one set are definitely given, so a prediction of Bagnis +2.5 sets against Daniil Medvedev is quite reasonable for Facundo Bagnis.
Daniil Medvedev – Statistics & current form
If Daniil Medvedev’s official press conference after the draw had started a little later, it would probably have been completely different. Shortly afterwards, it was announced that there would be no points at Wimbledon 2022. Medvedev will not be allowed to compete on the hallowed turf (like all Russian and Belarusian players) but will almost certainly regain the world ranking due to this ruling. Djokovic will eventually drop 2,000 points from the rankings.
Medvedev and sand – it doesn’t fit
Medvedev, however, would probably not have been amused to talk about things he cannot influence anyway. Thus, the press conference was almost exclusively about him not being a top player on clay, so to speak. An assessment that is quite justified, after all, the 26-year-old lost in the first round of Roland Garros in each of the years from 2017 to 2020. It was not until last year that he was able to erase the black mark and win a match for the first time. In the end, he was eliminated in the quarter-finals against Stefanos Tsitsipas.
He played his only preparation match on clay last week against the French veteran Richard Gasquet. Once again, he lost out to a Frenchman on clay (he has never won against a Frenchman on clay) and was defeated in two sets. The late start of the tournament (only on Tuesday) certainly plays into his favour to find the feeling for clay.
Medvedev’s style of play is certainly not predestined for the clay courts of this world and a bit of stumbling would not be surprising, but on the whole there should be no debate and with Bagnis against Medvedev, betting on the favourite to win will be the right choice.
Facundo Bagnis – Daniil Medvedev Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to Head: 0:0
The two players will face each other for the first time on the ATP Tour in the first round of the 2022 French Open.
Facundo Bagnis – Daniil Medvedev Tip
The clay courts of this world and Daniil Medvedev are certainly not going to build an intimate relationship anymore, but the world number two can still fancy his chances over the next two weeks. The opener against a clay court specialist will challenge him a bit, but in the end, it all comes down to a prediction for the favourite between Bagnis and Medvedev.
Not necessarily to be expected, however, is a clear success for the Russian. Medvedev is susceptible on clay and Bagnis, with his strong game on the red clay, can definitely make the Russian desperate. Chances will certainly arise for the number 103 in the course of the match, a set win for Bagnis would definitely not be a surprise. Medvedev will prevail, but the match will probably be much closer than the odds suggest. Accordingly, six units are tipped for Bagnis against Medvedev with the tip “Bagnis +2.5 sets”. The game handicap and the over bet on the games are also very good options.
