Can the Wimbledon winner stop the Belarusian’s run?

The ranks have thinned out, leaving Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka as two worthy finalists who now look to follow in the footsteps of defending champion Ashleigh Barty, who retired last March. While the Kazakh eliminated top favourite Iga Swiatek, her opponent from Belarus went the entire tournament without losing a set. It is therefore somewhat more likely that Elena Rybakina will win against Aryna Sabalenka and that the Belarusian will win the tournament overall.

After all, Aryna Sabalenka also leads the direct comparison against Elena Rybakina by a clear margin of 3:0. However, the Kazakh has some experience ahead of her opponent. The 23-year-old was already in a Grand Slam final last summer in Wimbledon, where she scored a major coup in a 2-1 win over Ons Jabeur. A factor that should be taken into account in the forecast for Elena Rybakina against Aryna Sabalenka.

So far, however, it has been the absolute year of Aryna Sabalenka, who also won the Adelaide International 1, making it an even 2-0 in all ten singles matches in 2023. This strong run makes it all the more difficult to predict the winner of this highly anticipated final. Even if she is 1-0 down in sets, one should not write off the strong nerves and resilience of Elena Rybakina.

Meanwhile, we see the greatest value in betting that both strong-serving opponents will not give each other much, especially in the first set, in which there is also a valid tie-break chance. Consequently, we are betting on more than 9.5 games in the first set of the 111th Australian Open final.

Elena Rybakina – Statistics & current form

Current world ranking: 25
Position in the seedings: 22

The 23-year-old Elena Rybakina was born in Moscow, Russia, but has been playing under the Kazakh flag since 2018. She has won three singles titles on the WTA Tour since then, with her biggest success coming last summer.

At the 2022 Wimbledon Championships, Elena Rybakina advanced to the Grand Slam and won the first ever Grand Slam women’s singles title for Kazakhstan. At the Australian Open, she is now also the first Kazakh woman ever to advance beyond the round of 16.

New career high already guaranteed

The 23-year-old did not benefit from a lucky draw, but had to defeat several top players during the tournament. Among others, she eliminated last year’s finalist Danielle Collins, world number one Iga Swiatek and the two former Grand Slam winners Jelena Ostapenko and Victoria Azarenka.

This means she is also assured of a new career high regardless of the outcome of the final. Even in the event of defeat, Elena Rybakina would be listed as the new world number ten in the next update of the WTA world rankings, pushing her into the top 10 for the first time in her career.

First-class handling of complicated match situations

The Kazakh made an impression during the tournament with her remarkable nerves of steel. Even in critical game situations, Elena Rybakina always kept an overview and was able to free herself under pressure several times.

In addition, the lady, who has a high degree of agility despite her height of 1.84 metres, also has an excellent service game, which she was able to use against the strong return player Victoria Azarenka in the semifinals in seven out of ten cases. Only her record against her opponent in the final reads poorly, with three losses from three duels, which is why the betting odds are against the 23-year-old in Elena Rybakina’s match against Aryna Sabalenka.

Aryna Sabalenka – Statistics & current form

Current ranking in the World Ranking: 5
Position in the seedings: 5

Aryna Sabalenka has been part of the WTA Tour since 2016, but has never yet qualified for a Grand Slam final. The Belarusian tennis player has reached the semi-finals of a Grand Slam tournament three times so far, but in all three cases she was unable to come through unscathed.

In her fourth attempt, the 24-year-old now gets her first chance to fight for one of the coveted Grand Slam titles. It would be the twelfth singles title in her highly successful career and the fifth major title after four overall victories in tournaments from the WTA 1000 category.

Won all ten singles matches in 2023 outright 2-0

The Belarusian already attracted attention in the run-up to the Australian Open when she won the Adelaide International 1 with four straight 2-0 victories. Momentum she could even build on in Melbourne. Aryna Sabalenka also went without losing a set in the women’s singles at the important tennis tournament Down Under.

In total, the world number five has played ten singles matches in 2023, all of which she won 2-0. Consequently, the lady from Belarus will also make a further leap in the WTA world rankings and advance to the new number two in the world, irrespective of the outcome of the final.

Make-less record against Elena Rybakina

Naturally, the 24-year-old, who was still known for her high number of double faults in 2022 (she made a total of 428 double faults last season – an inglorious high on the entire WTA Tour), would prefer to celebrate her new career high with a Grand Slam title in the bag.

Elena Rybakina’s betting on winning the final against Aryna Sabalenka is based not only on her flawless year so far in 2023 and her much improved service, but also on her record against her Kazakh opponent in the final. The Belarusian has won all three meetings against the Wimbledon champion so far…

Elena Rybakina – Aryna Sabalenka Direct comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 0:3

Three times both ladies have faced each other so far and in all three cases Aryna Sabalenka prevailed in the end. Most recently, the Belarusian tennis player also managed a 2-1 victory over Elena Rybakina at the Wimbledon Championships 2021. It was the Kazakh’s only defeat in eleven singles matches so far at the Grand Slam tournament in London.

Elena Rybakina – Aryna Sabalenka Tip

Although the head-to-head comparison clearly favours Aryna Sabalenka, who has so far soared in her own spheres in 2023, winning all ten singles outright 2-0. However, Elena Rybakina presented herself in Melbourne with extremely strong nerves and was able to clear the much tougher chunks (including last year’s finalist Danielle Collins and world number one Iga Swiatek) on her way to the final. It is therefore difficult to predict the outcome of Elena Rybakina’s match against Aryna Sabalenka.

It is clear that both women have the quality to come back from a 1-0 set deficit. However, no player wants to fall behind. We expect a hard-fought first set in which at least ten games will be needed.