Who will secure a place in the semi-finals against the defending champion?

In the Green Group of the ATP Finals 2021, the starting position is very simple. After Novak Djokovic beat Andrey Rublev and Casper Ruud to clinch the group title early, the Russian and the Norwegian, who both won their other match, will now battle it out to see who will accompany the Serb to the semifinals.

Both now face a semi-final clash against defending champion Daniil Medvedev in this quarter-final in spec. In the run-up to the third group match between Andrey Rublev and Casper Ruud, the odds are swinging in the direction of the 24-year-old Russian, who has won 49 of his 70 singles matches in 2021.

Rublev has an unblemished record against the Norwegian upstart. The two top 10 players have met four times and the world number five from Russia has emerged victorious on all four occasions. Accordingly, there is a lot to be said for betting on the victory of the 24-year-old in the case of Andrey Rublev against Casper Ruud, which can be provided with a small handicap of -2.5 games to increase the odds.

Andrey Rublev – Statistics & current form

Current ranking in the world: 5.
Position in the seedings: 5.

The 24-year-old Russian Andrey Rublev already qualified for the ATP Finals for the first time in his career a year ago, where he beat the eventual finalist Dominic Thiem in the round robin outright 2-0.

However, because the number five in the ATP world rankings lost the other two matches against Rafael Nadal and Stefanos Tsitsipas, it was not enough for him to reach the semi-finals.

Sure of a place in the semifinals with a win

The strong Russian could fail again this year with a record of 1:2 wins in the preliminary round, but still holds all the trumps in the duel with Casper Ruud. If Rublev wins this match, he will reach the semi-finals of the ATP Finals for the first time in his career and secure a duel with his compatriot Daniil Medvedev.

The world number five managed a highly respectable 2-0 opening win over 2019 world champion Stefanos Tsitsipas, who subsequently withdrew through injury. However, Rublev was then thwarted in an outright 2-0 loss to top seed Novak Djokovic.

Only 50% of his serves led to a point against Djokovic

While the 24-year-old Russian’s serve was still banging in the first match against Tsitsipas, it was his usually strong service that failed against the Djoker. Rublev, who won 49 of his 70 singles matches in 2021 and reached four finals, scored on his own serve only 50% of the time against Djokovic.

The Russian could only fend off two of the Serb’s six break points. Moreover, because he did not get into the return game himself, the only match left for him after the 0:2 defeat is the match for second place in the Green Group. At least here, Andrey Rublev’s betting on his victory against Casper Ruud is under favourable omens.

Casper Ruud – Statistics & current form

Current ranking in the world: 8th /i☻
Position in the seedings: 8th

The 22-year-old Norwegian Casper Ruud was the only one of the original eight participants in this year’s ATP Finals not to reach a single final of a major tournament in 2021. The shooting star also failed to win a major title, although he nevertheless advanced to the top 10 for the first time due to a total of five overall victories at ATP Tour 250 tournaments and qualified for the World Championships.

As expected, Ruud lost 2-0 to Novak Djokovic in his opening match, but then bounced back against Cameron Norrie, who replaced the injured Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Never won on hard court before against a top-10 player

In his 2-1 win over the Brit, the Norwegian had to work his way back into the match after a dismal first set, which he lost 1-6. In the end, however, the 2-1 victory (1:6, 6:3 and 6:4) was on the record. It was his first ever win at the ATP Finals, although he was unable to improve his poor record against other top 10 players.

The second seed Cameron Norrie is only number twelve in the world. Ruud still has only three wins from the 17 duels with Top 10 players on his record, with all three victories coming on clay. He has never beaten any of the ATP Tour’s top stars on hard court before.

The first serve arrives too rarely

Although his return game was convincing in the second group match against Norrie, when Ruud got to the point 35% of the time on his opponent’s serve and also got the break in the decisive moments. However, the Norwegian, who is well versed on clay courts, must improve his first serve, which was served only 63% of the time.

If Ruud fails to do so, his Russian opponent will punish him with a vengeance. Accordingly, the 22-year-old will start the last group match as an underdog.

Andrey Rublev – Casper Ruud Direct comparison / H2H-balance

Head to head: 4:0

Four times both athletes have faced each other so far and in all four cases the Russian was victorious in the end, even defeating the Norwegian clay court specialist in three of the four matches on his element and also winning the only hard court duel in the context of the Australia Open 2021.

Andrey Rublev – Casper Ruud Tip

With Andrey Rublev against Casper Ruud, the prediction is not only shaped by the very clear “head to head” comparison. The Russian’s experience advantage also plays a big role. Rublev had his first taste of the ATP Finals a year ago, which benefited him when he beat Tsitsipas 2-0 in his opening match. In addition, his performance data in Turin was more convincing overall than the Norwegian’s.

In addition, there are the deficits that the Norwegian, who has a strong game but is fixated on clay court, brings with him on hard court. Also because his service earns him far too few free points, it might not be enough at this level.

We therefore recommend betting on the Russian to win, which we provide with a small handicap of -2.5 games. The odds for Andrey Rublev against Casper Ruud are 1.89