Zverev faces the local hero for the opener

The tennis world looks to Italy for the finale. First of all to Milan, where the NextGen Finals were held, and from Sunday the ATP Finals will take place in Turin. In the past, London’s O2 Arena was always the venue (for twelve years) for the end of the season, in 2021 the Pala Alpitour Stadium will serve as the venue. In the first night session on Sunday evening, Alexander Zverev and Matteo Berrettini will face each other.

In addition to these two players, last year’s winner and reigning US Open champion Daniil Medvedev and Polish debutant Hubert Hurkacz complete this group. In many places Medvedev is considered the clear favourite and accordingly this opening match may have a decisive character for both players. According to the current betting odds, Zverev is considered the clear favourite against Berretini by the bookmakers.

Zverev can look back on a very successful season and has made almost 2,000 points more than the Italian in the current annual rankings. But the fast indoor hardcourt is certainly a surface that also plays into Berrettini’s favour. In all likelihood, the match will be far closer than the odds suggest.

Alexander Zverev – statistics & current form

An extremely intense year, in more ways than one, is drawing to a close for Alexander Zverev. The 2018 ATP Finals winner celebrated five tournament victories this season, became a father for the first time, has had to deal with allegations of violence and has been on cloud nine with Sophia Thomalla for the past few weeks.

28 wins in 31 matches

After the Wimbledon exit in the round of 16 against Felix Auger-Aliassime, the switch to hard court took place and Zverev played himself into outstanding form in the second half of the year. He won the tournaments in Tokyo, Cincinnati and Vienna and also reached the semi-finals of the US Open and the Masters in Paris. The German tennis star suffered his earliest exit in Indian Wells in the quarter-finals.

Zverev has won no less than 28 of the last 31 matches on the ATP Tour and thus delivered a heavy workload. This has definitely left its mark and Zverev did not deny a certain fatigue recently. Nevertheless, he did not come to Turin just to be a competitor, the goals are set high according to his own statement.

In Paris he ran out of steam

Despite this, it was clear to see, especially in the clear 2:6, 2:6 defeat against Daniil Medvedev in the semi-finals in Paris, that the reserves of energy are at a minimum. After the clear defeat, Zverev put the racket aside and wanted to recover.

This clear defeat was certainly not the best preparation for the ATP Finals. According to these findings, there is no value in betting on Zverev against Berrettini. Especially since Berrettini will probably not offer Zverev any rhythm with his aggressive style of play.

Matteo Berrettini – Statistics & current form

In 2019, Matteo Berretini played his way to the top of the world, qualifying for the ATP Finals for the first time. However, he was eliminated early with two defeats, but at least he managed to win his premiere in the third match. A weak year in 2020 was followed by a very strong year in 2021.

42:12 match record

Unlike Alexander Zverev, however, Matteo Berrettini has been far less visible on the tour in recent weeks and months. The Italian should definitely have physical advantages, after all, he has “only” played 54 matches so far in 2021, while Zverev already has 70.

His 42:12 match record so far this year also eclipses his best career year so far in 2019. Back then, there were 48 wins for Berrettini, but the Italian also suffered 25 defeats. In 2021, the aggressive Italian celebrated two tournament victories and also reached his first Grand Slam final on the hallowed turf of Wimbledon.

Fast surfaces play into his hands

The strong results on grass were no real surprise. The 1.96-metre tall Italian has an incredibly strong service and a thunderous forehand. With it, he can always generate enormous pressure and take command. The indoor hard court is a fast surface and therefore Berrettini will probably get many free points.

In addition, the Italian local hero, Berrettini was born in Rome, has the fans behind him who will whip him forward from the first point. So Zverev is not only playing against the number seven in the world, but also against the entire hall. The German has definitely taken a step forward mentally, but the home advantage is certainly also an argument that supports a prediction on the underdog in Zverev against Berrettini.

Alexander Zverev – Matteo Berrettini Direct comparison / H2H record

Head to Head: 3:1

So far, the 24-year-old Zverev and the one-year older Italian Matteo Berrettini have faced each other four times on the ATP Tour. Three of these four duels have been played on red clay, another on hard court. Alexander Zverev has been the winner three times so far, while Berrettini only managed to prevail at the clay-court Masters in Rome in 2019. The only match in 2021 was the final in Madrid, which “Sascha” Zverev narrowly won in three sets.

Alexander Zverev – Matteo Berrettini Tip

The red group – in contrast to London, the groups are no longer named after legends but are divided into red/green – includes four players who can all generate an extreme amount of pace. Short rallies and many winners are certainly to be expected here. Betting on tiebreaks is also always a good option with these men. Since a very tight match is to be expected, betting on the game handicap +2.5 is a good option for Zverev against Berrettini.

Zverev’s very good results are undeniable, but the German’s role as favourite is too clear. Fatigue on Zverev’s part, home advantage on Berrettini’s part and a fast indoor surface are all points that play into the Italian’s favour. A Zverev win is certainly possible, but the value of Zverev vs. Berrettini is the forecast on the Italian. This bet is recommended with a stake of five units