Local hero as a stumbling block?

When asked about the big tournament favourites at the Australian Open 2022, the name Alexander Zverev comes up very, very often. Germany’s tennis number one has gained even more experience in recent months and is not only described by US legend John McEnroe as ready for the title. He won the opening match in the German duel without shining, and in the second round Alexander Zverev will now face a local hero, John Millman.

Accordingly, the sympathies in the stands will be clearly distributed and Zverev will not only play against the 32-year-old Australian, but also against the crowd. Nevertheless, there is basically no doubt that the favourite will prevail in this match. For Zverev against Millman, odds of only 1.06 are offered for the world number three to win. Millman has upset some big stars in the past, but a win on Wednesday would indeed be surprising.

The local hero’s performances so far don’t necessarily give much reason for hope. Millman is a long way from his best form and he would need that to be able to annoy Zverev. Accordingly, this match should be one-sided.

Alexander Zverev – Statistics & current form

Olympic gold and second win at the ATP Finals as well as a new love – the autumn of 2021 could not have gone better for Alexander Zverev. In the second half of the year, the Hamburg native was in enviable form. The only thing missing from his CV is a title win at a Grand Slam tournament – but in view of recent developments, this seems to be only a matter of time. Currently, only Medvedev’s tournament win is offered at lower odds than Zverev. For Sascha Zverev’s premiere title, there are currently odds of just over 3.00.

Much didn’t go according to plan – except for the win

At the beginning of the year, stars often have big problems to put their current performance in relation to the competition. It is also important not to waste energy unnecessarily in the first rounds. Zverev succeeded in this in his 158-minute opening match, although his personal conclusion was anything but positive. The world number three described the victory as the only positive thing in the match. Apart from that, he was not satisfied with his performance, which is not really surprising in view of only four breaks in 18 opportunities.

Things got curious after the converted match point in the tiebreak of the third set. Zverev did not step forward to the net, but wanted to get new balls for the next serve before a fan shouted to him that the match was over. The conclusion is not quite as harsh as Zverev’s self-criticism, a very solid performance with a strong serve. When the first serve was in the court, the point went to Zverev 88 percent of the time.

The match against Millman will probably be similar to the one against Altmaier. The Australian is also considered a powerhouse, but his recent results have not been positive at all. Accordingly, the forecast for Zverev against Millman seems to be 3:0 in favour of the favourite.

John Millman – Statistics & current form

Feliciano Lopez was basically an extremely pleasant first round opponent. The now 40-year-old Spanish veteran was playing his 79th Grand Slam tournament in a row, but had to compete in Melbourne virtually without preparation due to a corona illness. This lack of freshness and match practice was clearly noticeable in the old star and Millman had a relatively easy match in his first round.

Disappointing Results 2022

Against a fit(er) Feliciano Lopez, the Australian would hardly have been considered a favourite. After all, Millman’s first appearances in the new calendar year were anything but convincing. The current number 89 in the ATP world rankings (was already ranked 33) lost outright in two sets to both Thanasi Kokkinakis and Jaume Munar at the two tournaments in Adelaide. Two players who can in no way be compared to Alexander Zverev.

The victory against Feliciano Lopez should by no means be overrated. With 58 unforced errors, Lopez was often in his own way. The last break in the match was symptomatic, when the Spaniard missed an easy forehand wide. After 2:52 hours Millman was the winner and celebrated his seventh victory in his 14th match in the main competition of the Australian Open.

Millman’s greatest successes in his career (including his only ATP title) have come on hard court. However, the Australian is not a player who has a strong serve or can generate enormous pressure with his forehand/backhand. Rather, he is regarded as a strong player who commits relatively few unforced errors. However, waiting for his opponent to make mistakes will not be an effective means against a top star. He will have great problems with Zverev’s pace and will find himself in dicey situations on many service games. Thus, the forecast of under 31.5 games seems to be a good option for Zverev against Millman.

Alexander Zverev – John Millman Direct Comparison / H2H-Balance

Head to Head: 2:0

The two players have faced each other twice before and both times German Alexander Zverev lived up to his role as favourite. In 2019, however, Zverev had a lot of trouble with the Australian in the first round of the French Open and only just managed to prevail in five sets. The German favourite also had to drop a set in their second encounter, in October 2020 in the Cologne hall, but ultimately celebrated a well-deserved victory.

Alexander Zverev – John Millman Tip

A Grand Slam tournament is not won in the first week, but it may be lost. Those who leave a lot of energy behind in the first rounds against supposedly “easy” opponents often pay dearly for this later in the tournament. The top priority is therefore to get through the first week of the tournament without many extra rounds. With Zverev against Millman, it makes perfect sense to bet at fair odds on a clear success for the German co-favourite.

Zverev was already relatively strong in his first round, but showed potential for improvement especially on break points. Millman, on the other hand, is a player who won’t get many free points with his service. He doesn’t make many simple errors, but Zverev’s powerful game will always present him with insurmountable problems. More than one close set is not to be expected and with two clear sets Alexander Zverev against John Millman can also be bet on the game handicap -8.5. Of course, there is a certain risk with this high handicap, but the weak Millman form in 2022 speaks in favour of the odds of up to a 2.80.