Does Sascha continue his strong run?

The round of 16 of the US Open 2023 will feature several cracks. Among them is also the German-Italian duel between Alexander Zverev and Jannik Sinner – of course, the betting base has a tip for this! The balance speaks in favor of the Hamburg, who was able to prevail in three of four cases against the Sextner. Among other things, Sascha beat the 22-year-old at the US Open 2021 smoothly with 3:0.

In the current year, however, the South Tyrolean is in captivating form. Jannik Sinner just secured his first major title as part of the US Open Series when he won the Canadian Open in Toronto. It was one of two singles titles in 2023, in which the Sesto native stands at 44 wins from 56 singles played. On the part of the bookmakers, the forecast for Alexander Zverev against Jannik Sinner therefore tends towards the 22-year-old advancing.

Alexander Zverev struggled in the second round against his compatriot Daniel Altmaier and in the third round against former world champion Grigor Dimitrov. In the end, however, the German recorded two convincing 3:1 victories to underline how well the hard-court Grand Slam tournament in New York City suits him. At the US Open, the Hamburg native has 21 wins from 28 singles matches.

Since the head-to-head comparison is also in Sascha’s favor, we’ll take a chance on the underdog in this high-profile round of 16 match and bet on the German advancing to the quarterfinals, where superstar Carlos Alcaraz will presumably await him.

Alexander Zverev – statistics & current form

Current position in the world ranking: 12
Position in the seedings: 12

Three years ago, the 26-year-old German Alexander Zverev reached the final of a Grand Slam tournament at the US Open for the first and only time in his career so far, where he was defeated by Dominic Thiem 2:3 after leading 2:0 in the first set.

The following year, Sascha again reached the semifinals at Flushing Meadows before his injury prevented him from competing in the men’s singles of the major tennis tournament in New York City in 2022.

Won 21 of 28 singles matches at the US Open

Now the Hamburg native is back and has so far been able to seamlessly continue his strong performances from his last appearances at the US Open. The 26-year-old has once again reached the round of the best 16 players with three thoroughly commanding victories.

Overall, Alexander Zverev now has 21 wins from 28 matches played in the men’s singles at the US Open – a remarkable win rate of 75%. After his tournament victory in Hamburg and reaching the semifinals of the Western & Southern Open, in which he was narrowly defeated 0:2 by Novak Djokovic (6:7 and 5:7), the German seems to be back to his old self again.

70% won points with the second serve

Ahead of the duel between Alexander Zverev and Jannik Sinner, the betting odds are swinging in the direction of the South Tyrolean. However, Sascha has definitely not been easy to break so far. Especially in the duel with Grigor Dimitrov (ATP 19), who was able to deliver an extremely strong performance despite the defeat, the German’s serve was once again an absolute bank.

Not only did the Hamburg player score with his first serve in 71% of all cases, whereby he managed 15 aces with only one double fault, but also his second serve was absolutely impressive. Zverev scored a whopping 26 times on a total of 37 second serves – a strikingly high rate of 70%.

Jannik Sinner – statistics & current form

Current position in the world ranking: 6
Position in the seedings: 6

The 22-year-old South Tyrolean Jannik Sinner is currently participating in the US Open for the fifth time. After his first two participations in 2019 and 2020 always ended in the first round, the player from Sesto reached the round of 16 for the first time in 2021, where he lost 0:3 to his current opponent Alexander Zverev.

Last year, however, things went one step further for the sixth-ranked player in the world, who after four wins was able to advance to the quarterfinals, where despite a 2:1 set lead against the eventual tournament winner Carlos Alcaraz, the end of the line was reached.

Won only 13 of 39 duels with top-10 players

If Alexander Zverev’s bet on the Italian superstar’s progress against Jannik Sinner is correct, the player from Sesto would most likely get another chance against the current world number one Carlos Alcaraz.

However, the 22-year-old does not have the best record against the top stars on the ATP Tour. Jannik Sinner has faced a top 10 player 39 times so far. Only in 13 of these matches did he ultimately retain the upper hand. An average win rate of only 33%.

44 of 56 singles matches won in 2023

But the fact that the South Tyrolean has increasingly been able to step out of the shadow of the top 10 players and become an established top 10 player himself is also thanks to his strong year so far in 2023. After winning a small hard-court tournament in Montpellier back in February, the 22-year-old just secured his first-ever major title in Toronto at the Canadian Open.

Overall, Sinner is already on 44 wins from 56 completed singles matches in the 2023 season. Most recently, he even beat former tournament winner Stan Wawrinka in the third round of the US Open, but was not able to shine throughout with “only” 61% won points on his own serve and only 43% won return points. The 61 unforced errors could also be his undoing against an Alexander Zverev in top form.

Alexander Zverev – Jannik Sinner Direct comparison / H2H-balance

Head to head: 3:1

Four times both athletes faced each other so far and Jannik Sinner could only win the very first encounter. The last three times, it was always Alexander Zverev who prevailed, who was also able to knock Sinner out of the round of 16 at the US Open 2021. On that occasion, Sascha triumphed smoothly in three sets with a 3:0 (6:4, 6:4 and 7:6)

Alexander Zverev – Jannik Sinner Tip

Bookmakers are leaning in the direction of the South Tyrolean when it comes to Alexander Zverev against Jannik Sinner, which is a bold assessment based on the factors analyzed. The player from Sesto has played the more consistent year and has just gained a lot of self-confidence with the Major title in Toronto. In the head-to-head comparison, however, he is down 1:3 against Sascha and already lost 0:3 to the German, who has a very strong record at Flushing Meadows, at the US Open in 2021.

The forecast for Alexander Zverev against Jannik Sinner is correspondingly consistent that the German will also hold his own in this duel against the man from Sesto. In any case, Sascha can beat any opponent on the ATP Tour, while Sinner himself has won only 13 of his 39 duels against top-10 players