Will the Black Cats secure their ticket to Wembley?
In English football’s lower tier, 46 matchdays in the regular season is not enough to fix the promoted teams. Only two of the three tickets are fixed, the third ticket is played for by the teams from third to sixth place in a play-off. The semi-finals will still be played in a first and second leg before the final is played at Wembley. The promotion battle in the third-tier League One will determine the finalist between Sheffield Wed and Sunderland on Monday night.
Ex-Premier League club Wigan Athletic achieved promotion as champions, with second place going to relegated Rotherham, who can therefore cheer direct promotion. A goal that has been a distant memory for the Owls from Sheffield since Friday. The first leg at the Stadium of Light was lost 1-0, so the pressure is on for the home side.
Sheffield Wednesday’s strong home record serves as an encouragement, but the Black Cats from the north of England have been in fine form for weeks. For a Sheffield Wed home win over Sunderland, current betting odds are in the 2.10 range, with Monday night’s game kicking off at 20:45.
Sheffield Wed – Statistics & current form
From a purely sporting point of view, Sheffield Wednesday would not have been relegated last season, yet the reality this season was League One. Due to inconsistencies in the sale of the stadium, the club was fined six points. In the end, head coach Darren Moore’s side were just three points off the drop zone.
Home strength as hope
Promotion is usually much more difficult than staying in the division and yet Moore’s side have been able to back up those ambitions from the outset this season. Sheffield Wednesday have been in the play-off places all season. Since matchday 34, the team has been in a play-off place without interruption. In the end, direct promotion was missed by five points.
The decisive factor was undoubtedly the away record, which was completely balanced with eight wins, eight draws and seven defeats. The team presents itself completely differently at home in Hillsborough. A 16-5-2 record definitely justifies the term “strong at home”. The only two defeats came at the beginning of October (against Oxford) and in mid-February (against promoted Rotherham). Despite these statistics, however, doubts can be found in Sheffield Wed’s prediction of a home win against Sunderland.
The pressure situation due to the first leg result is enormous. In addition, “The Owls” were clearly outplayed last Friday (39:61 possession; 3:11 shots). The sold-out stadium can be a big help, but the longer it is 0:0, the more uncomfortable this situation can be for the home side. Moreover, the visitors from the north of England are brimming with confidence after recent successes.
Predicted line-up of Sheffield Wed:
Peacock-Farrell – Palmer, Hutchinson, Storey – Johnson, Luongo, Bannan, Byers, Dean – Berahino, Gregory
Last matches of Sheffield Wed:
League One Playoff
10/05/2022 – Sheffield Wednesday 1 – 1 Sunderland
07/05/2022 – Sunderland 1 – 0 Sheffield Wednesday
League One
30/04/2022 – Sheffield Wednesday 4 – 1 Portsmouth
27/04/2022 – Fleetwood 2 – 3 Sheffield Wednesday
23/04/2022 – Wycombe 1 – 0 Sheffield Wednesday
Sunderland – Statistics & current form
The recent successes of the Black Cats that have been mentioned are truly something to behold. In the midst of the promotion battle, the club’s management decided to make a coaching change in mid-February. The dismissal of Lee Johnson was also a drastic experience for Bayern loanee Ron-Thorben Hoffmann. He lost his number one position between the posts and has since only been a substitute keeper.
One defeat in 16 games
After head coach Alex Neil decided to make this change at the goalkeeper position, there was basically no reason to do a “roll backwards” either. In the first three games under Neil, things did not go according to plan (two draws, one defeat), but after that the former Premier League representatives played themselves into a frenzy.
The 2-1 home defeat against MK Dons was in fact the only defeat in the Alex Neil era. Sunderland have now played 16 competitive games under him and boast a very strong 9-6-1 record. Sunderland are unbeaten in no less than 14 league games (nine wins, five draws). A one-goal lead is very close, but in view of their outstanding form, Sunderland can also be expected to win away at the Hillsborough Stadium. Between Sheffield Wed and Sunderland, the odds for a prediction in the visitors’ direction – be it Double Chance X2 or Draw No Bet 2 – are absolutely tempting.
In terms of personnel, the Black Cats have a player with a built-in goal guarantee in 25-year-old Scot Ross Stewart. Only Wigan Athletic’s Will Keane has scored more often this League One season (26).
Predicted line-up of Sunderland:
Patterson – Wright, Batth, O’Nien – Gooch, Evans, Cirkin, Roberts – Pritchard – Clarke, Stewart
Last games of Sunderland:
League One Playoff
10/05/2022 – Sheffield Wednesday 1 – 1 Sunderland
07/05/2022 – Sunderland 1 – 0 Sheffield Wednesday
League One
30/04/2022 – Morecambe 0 – 1 Sunderland
27/04/2022 – Sunderland 1 – 1 Rotherham
23/04/2022 – Sunderland 5 – 1 Cambridge U
Sheffield Wed – Sunderland Direct comparison / H2H record
Well over 100 times these two sides have faced each other so far in their long club history. However, the games so far this season represent a first, as this clash has never been seen before in the English third tier. 98 of the 126 games were played in the football top flight. In the 2021/22 regular season, the hosts had great cause for celebration on each occasion. Sheffield Wednesday celebrated a 3-0 home win in early November, while Sunderland topped that with a 5-0 win at the Stadium of Light in late December.
The first leg in the battle for promotion was much closer last Friday. A Ross Stewart goal in favour of the Black Cats from Sunderland gave the hosts the 1-0 win and the advantage in the battle for a place in the final.
Sheffield Wed – Sunderland Tip
Wembley is calling and with it a possible return to the Championship. Sunderland go into the second leg with a slight advantage. The home record favours the home side, but the recent form of both teams clearly favours the visitors from Sunderland. The Black Cats are consistently performing at a high level and can also rely on a defence that is as strong as an ox (ten goals conceded in 16 games under Alex Neil).
The betting odds for the home win in this duel have no appeal, rather the odds on the visitors appear interesting between Sheffield Wed and Sunderland. In such a match, the mental aspect also plays a big role and the narrow lead as well as the strength of form are strong arguments in favour of the visitors. Therefore, the best betting option for the “Draw no Bet 2” is a stake of five units.
