Will Atletico destroy Real’s dream of winning their first cup since 2014?
The quarter-finals of the Copa del Rey will see Spain’s top four teams duke it out. We are looking forward to the city derby between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid on Thursday evening. A 1.95 is currently being offered on the three-way market for a bet on a home win for the royals, which quickly makes it clear that even the best bookmakers tend to be rather cautious with their assessment.
There are two main reasons why Carlo Ancelotti’s side are not even starker favourites despite their home advantage and the way the season has gone so far. Firstly, the reigning Champions League winners have not always been convincing of late and have slipped up a few times. Secondly, the Spanish King’s Cup has not always been blessed with priority number one in recent years, especially under the management of the Italian coach.
Apart from this, the fact that the Galacticos have regularly struggled against their uncomfortable city rivals in the recent past should also be taken into account when making predictions between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid.
Combined with the prestigious derby character, we expect this knockout match, which would go into extra time and then possibly a penalty shootout in the event of a draw after 90 minutes, to be a contested affair and not a lively goal spectacle.
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
The performances of the Madrilenians in the first matches after the World Cup break were changeable. Among other things, Ancelotti’s team lost 2-1 to Villarreal in La Liga and was also beaten 3-1 by their great rivals Barcelona in the Supercopa final. The early elimination from the Copa del Rey almost spoiled the mood in the Spanish capital, but the royals turned a 2-0 deficit at Villarreal into a 3-2 victory in the round of 16.
However, scoring three goals in a game has been a rarity of late. Only in one of the last twelve competitive matches did the white ballet score more than two goals of their own. In four of the last seven matches involving the reigning Champions League winners, a bet on the under 2.5 would have gone through. Even before the upcoming Copa del Rey quarter-final Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid, the odds on a maximum of two goals in regulation time promise a very interesting value.
Real Madrid have waited almost ten years for a Copa final appearance
Tendentiously, we would even refrain from betting on a home win. Recent performances at national level have been too erratic and unconvincing. Nevertheless, one must always bear in mind that the Galactics are often capable of stepping up a gear or two in important knockout games.
However, the question must be allowed: What significance does the Spanish King’s Cup have for the current second-placed team in the Spanish top flight? The fact is that Real Madrid last won the title in this competition in 2014 and have only made it to the semi-finals once in the past eight years.
With this in mind, we are even considering double chance X2 odds between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid, and at the same time would not be surprised if it goes to extra time or a penalty shootout. Lucas Vazquez will definitely be missing. There are also question marks over the use of the injured Alaba, Tchouameni, Carvajal and Hazard. Coach Ancelotti will probably not take any big risks, knowing that a tough challenge awaits him in the title race in Spain this weekend with a home match against third-placed Real Sociedad.
Predicted Real Madrid line-up:
Courtois; Nacho, Militao, Rüdiger, Mendy; Modric, Tchouameni, Kroos; Valverde, Benzema, Vinicius Jr
Last matches played by Real Madrid:
La Liga
23/01/2023 – Athletic Bilbao 0 – 2 Real Madrid
Copa del Rey
20/01/2023 – FC Villarreal 2 – 3 Real Madrid
Super Cup
16/01/2023 – Real Madrid 1 – 3 FC Barcelona
12/01/2023 – Real Madrid (4)1 – 1(3) Valencia
La Liga
07/01/2023 – FC Villarreal 2 – 1 Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid – Statistics & current form
Atletico Madrid obviously cannot be satisfied with their performance so far this season. In particular, their elimination from the Champions League group stage in last place still reverberates with the Colchoneros. At national level, coach Diego Simeone’s team is also clearly lagging behind its own expectations, so that the red-and-whites are currently even fearing for their ticket for the coming season in the top division.
The only remaining chance of winning the title is in the Copa del Rey. That is exactly why we expect the Argentine coach, whose incredible era in the Spanish capital could well come to an end at the end of the season, not to experiment on Thursday evening, but to field his strongest eleven. The away game at the Santiago Bernabeu is extremely important for the Rojiblancos, possibly even more so than for the home side.
Atletico Madrid have stabilised in the league
However, if you think it’s too risky to predict the underdog will progress between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid, you’d do well to bet on a maximum of two goals after 90 minutes. In our opinion, Jan Oblak and Co. only have a chance if they continue their past performances defensively, get into the heads of the royals through many tough duels and finally show brutal effectiveness on the offensive.
In purely statistical terms, an under-tip can also be justified quite well, after all, five of the Colchoneros’ past six league games saw a maximum of two goals. Apart from that, Atletico – together with their city rivals – still have one of the best defences in the league. 16 goals have been conceded after 18 matches. Interestingly, the former Champions League finalists have conceded only seven goals in nine attempts away from home. In six out of nine cases, the Under 2.5 would have paid off.
From coach Diego Simeone’s point of view, it is certainly important that Stefan Savic, the regular defender, is now back on board in the cup after a suspension in the league. Sergio Reguilon may also be involved. Memphis Depay, FC Barcelona’s latest addition, made his debut in the 3-0 win over Rayo Vallecano at the weekend and could now make his first start. The Dutchman should be a better offensive weapon than Alvaro Morata, especially in transitional play.
Predicted line-up of Atletico Madrid:
Oblak; Molina, Savic, Hermoso, Reinildo; Llorente, De Paul, Kondogbia, Carrasco; Griezmann, Depay
Last matches played by Atletico Madrid:
La Liga
22/01/2023 – Atletico Madrid 3 – 0 Real Valladolid
Copa del Rey
19/01/2023 – Levante 0 – 2 Atletico Madrid
La Liga
15/01/2023 – Almeria 1 – 1 Atletico Madrid
09/01/2023 – Atletico Madrid 0 – 1 FC Barcelona
Copa del Rey
05/01/2023 – Real Oviedo 0 – 2 Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid – Atletico Madrid Direct comparison / H2H balance
In a total of six different competitions at international as well as national level, the Madrid derby has already taken place 211 times. Unsurprisingly, Real Madrid lead the direct comparison with 107 victories. The multiple Spanish champions have won the duel between the city rivals almost twice as often as Atletico Madrid.
In the recent past, however, the royals have struggled time and again. In the past two seasons, Real won only one of the two league matches in the first and second legs. In the current season, the white ballet also narrowly won 2-1 against the Rojiblancos. It was one of only two meetings in the past twelve La Liga encounters in which more than two goals were scored.
Real Madrid – Atletico Madrid Tip
There is no shortage of footballing highlights these days and weeks. On Thursday evening, for example, the two Madrid clubs will duel for a place in the semi-finals of the Copa del Rey. On paper, Real Madrid are favoured against Atletico Madrid according to the betting odds, but caution is advised from the host’s point of view.
The royals have not really covered themselves with glory in the previous competitive matches after the World Cup break and have problems, especially offensively, with creating many scoring chances. That should not necessarily change in the clash with the traditionally uncomfortable Colchoneros. Especially considering that the Spanish King’s Cup has not been the favourite competition of the reigning Champions League winners in the past.
We definitely trust Coach Simeone’s guests to pull off a surprise and therefore also recommend a bet on double chance X2. At the same time, we can well imagine extra time or even a penalty shootout.
