Do the bats exacerbate Rayo’s crisis?
The conclusion of matchday 31 in Spain’s LaLiga will go down in the capital Madrid on Monday evening. However, neither of the top two teams will be in action as they face Champions League quarter-final second legs next week. Monday night’s match at 9pm is promoted Rayo Vallecano against Valencia.
Two teams whose form curves are completely contrasting. The hosts benefit from an outstanding autumn, but present themselves in very weak form in 2022. The visitors, on the other hand, have impressed in recent weeks with a strong defence and are without defeat for five games. Nevertheless, hosts Rayo Vallecano are seen as very clear favourites against Valencia according to current betting odds.
Is being favourites for the home side a misjudgement? Or yet justified to a certain extent? This is one of the central questions ahead of this duel. Arguments for this assessment by the bookmakers will be discussed in the following article.
Rayo Vallecano – Statistics & current form
The St. Pauli of Spanish football has been the epitome of a lift team in recent years. The league affiliation has been changed again and again, but this year head coach Andoni Iraola’s team has “come to stay”.
And in the autumn of 2021, the Red and Whites were the big surprise in Spanish football. After 18 match days, the promoted team was in a sensational fourth place in the table. Nevertheless, no one mentioned the word “Europe”, and in the meantime this is no longer a possibility, even for the most optimistic
Eleven league games without a win
The strong points haul from the autumn ensured a comfortable cushion in the fight to stay in the league. A cushion that was sorely needed, as the last success for Rayo Vallecano in the Spanish top flight actually dates back to 18 December 2021. Since the 2-0 win over bottom side Deportivo Alaves, the Iraola eleven have played eleven more games and have only managed a meagre three draws in this period.
In the meantime, the promoted team has been pushed through the ranks and now finds itself in 13th place. Slowly but surely, the situation in the table is becoming precarious, because with 33 points Rayo Vallecano is by no means saved. The lead over the first relegation place is now only five points. The setback last weekend was all the more bitter, when Rayo had to settle for a draw despite an early 2-0 lead. The equaliser came in minute 90+4
Home strength gives hope
So why is a team that hasn’t won in eleven league games seen as clear favourites? After all, Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia is only offered odds of 2.20 maximum on the home side. The answer here is Rayo Vallecano’s strong home record. The promoted team has collected 27 of its 33 points at home.
The decisive factor for this strong record is the significantly better defensive performance in front of home fans. In 15 home games, only 11 goals have been conceded, compared to 25 in 14 away games. Only five times was the bet that both teams would score crowned with success at the Campo de Futbol de Vallecas.
Predicted line-up of Rayo Vallecano:
Dimitrievski – Garcia, Catena, Suarez, Balliu – Valentin, Ciss – Garcia, Nteka, Palazon – Guardiola
Last matches played by Rayo Vallecano:
La Liga
04/03 2022 – Granada 2 – 2 Rayo Vallecano
03/19 2022 – Rayo Vallecano 0 – 1 Atletico Madrid
03/13 2022 – Rayo Vallecano 1 – 1 Sevilla FC
03/06 2022 – Cadiz 2 – 0 Rayo Vallecano
Copa del Rey
03/03 2022 – Real Betis 1 – 1 Rayo Vallecano
Valencia – Statistics & current form
The season of CF Valencia has been marked by many ups and downs. A look at the results so far this season shows that there have always been prolonged periods of success, but also failure. At the moment, Pepe Bordalas’ team is on a high and can start the trip to Madrid with a broad chest.
Since five games without defeat
After going without a win seven times in a row between 31 December and 20 February, Valencia have since gone five league games without defeat. What is particularly striking is the regained stability in the defence. Pepe Bordalas is well known for this, as his team conceded just 208 goals in 212 games as Getafe coach.
During the current unbeaten streak, young Georgian Giorgi Mamardashvili has taken centre stage. The goalkeeper replaced Jasper Cillessen and did not concede a goal in the last four league games. The only goal he conceded during the current run of success (in the 3-1 win over Granada) came with an injury and he was consequently not in the squad. Only one goal conceded in five league games on Monday evening between Rayo Vallecano and Valencia is an argument for a prediction of Under 2.5 or “Both teams score? No”.
Especially since the offensive suffers a bit due to the very strong defensive performance. A 3-4-3 system sounds relatively offensive on paper, but countless attacking options are not present in the bats. In Valencia’s last eight league games, there has been an average of only 1.75 goals. Five times even the bet on the under 1.5 was the right choice.
Predicted line-up of Valencia:
Mamardashvili – Gabriel Paulista, Alderete, Diakhaby – Gaya, Guillamon, Soler, Correia – Gil, Gomez, Guedes
Last matches played by Valencia:
La Liga
04/03 2022 – Valencia 0 – 0 Cadiz
03/19 2022 – Elche 0 – 1 Valencia
03/12 2022 – Getafe 0 – 0 Valencia
03/05 2022 – Valencia 3 – 1 Granada
Copa del Rey
03/02 2022 – Valencia 1 – 0 Athletic Bilbao
Rayo Vallecano – Valencia Direct comparison / H2H balance
The direct comparison between these two teams in the Spanish top flight reads very clearly. So far, they have met 37 times, and 21 times the Valencia bats have been victorious. The club from the capital, however, only celebrated eight victories, seven of which Rayo celebrated at their home Campo de Futbol de Vallecas. Among them was a 2-0 home win in the relegation year 2018/19. Valencia’s last away win at Rayo came on 12 May 2013 (four games since – two draws, two Rayo wins).
Rayo Vallecano – Valencia Tip
Valencia have not only shown an upward form in the league in the last weeks, but also reached the Copa del Rey final and can dream of a title. In terms of confidence, the visitors are clearly superior to the home side on Monday evening. The long winless streak and the bitter end in Granada are gnawing at the nerves and therefore there is definitely no value in betting on Rayo Vallecano against Valencia.
Rayo Vallecano’s convincing home statistics in the autumn of 2021 are well remembered, but recently things have not worked out in front of the home crowd either. The exorbitantly high betting odds on the bats from Valencia are accordingly not justified. Between Rayo Vallecano and Valencia, the forecast on a direct away win certainly has a certain risk, but there is great value to be discovered in the “Draw No Bet 2” bet with betting odds of over 2.55. Therefore, six units are also recommended here as a stake for this bet.
