Can Monaco still prevail?
Two illustrious names in European football meet in the third qualifying round of the Champions League group stage. After the draw in the first leg, everything is still open before the second leg between Dutch runners-up Eindhoven and last year’s championship third-placed team from France, AS Monaco.
Last season, both teams met in the group stage of the Europa League. The first leg ended in a draw in the Principality. The second leg in Eindhoven was won 2-1 by the Monegasques, so the French side, with their better quality, should by no means be written off in the second leg, even if the odds of the bookmakers we tested point in the direction of the Dutch side when it comes to PSV Eindhoven vs Monaco.
The dress rehearsal for the decisive second leg was successful for both teams last weekend. Monaco overcame the difficult away hurdle in Strasbourg with a 2-1 win, while Eindhoven completed their compulsory task at home against Emmen with ease. So both teams are confident going into the deciding match. The best analysis, odds and predictions for the upcoming match can be found in this article.
PSV Eindhoven – Statistics & current form
In good early form is PSV Eindhoven. After winning the Johan Cruijff Schaal, the Dutch Supercup, against their old arch-rivals Ajax Amsterdam, they also won the league opener with a commanding 4:1 against Emmen.
In the first leg against AS Monaco, they also showed a good performance, were in the lead for a long time and could have increased it to 2:0 if they had taken better chances. Instead, AS Monaco equalised towards the end of the game. The result was a draw, which was fair in the end. Shortly before the end, Eindhoven was even lucky not to have given the game completely out of their hands when the Monegasques hit the post. So everything is still open for the second leg, which guarantees excitement.
Does Eindhoven show their home strength also in Europe?
17 games and 14 wins – that is Eindhoven’s domestic home record last season. In the Europa League, however, there was not too much of this national dominance to be seen in the home games. Against the opponents from the top European leagues, San Sebastian, Monaco and Leicester, there was only one draw, and they also lost twice. They also failed to qualify for the Champions League against Benfica Lisbon.
Now it is up to new coach van Nistelrooy to improve this poor record. After a year as PSV’s U18 coach and another year as coach of Jong PSV, PSV’s second team, the former HSV player is on the sidelines for the first time this season as head coach of the professional team, taking over from Roger Schmidt.
He will have to master a certain upheaval in the squad. The most prominent departures in the squad are Götze and the ageing goal scorer Zahavi. The sale of Doan to Freiburg brought in even more money than the sale of Götze. The loss of quality in the offensive should be compensated for by the new arrivals Simons, Til and de Jong. In addition, van Nistelrooy took some of the top performers from last year’s team into the professional squad. However, van Nistelrooy has made few changes to the offensive style of play of his predecessor Schmidt. For this reason and the starting position in this match, we are predicting goals on both sides for PSV Eindhoven against Monaco. Missing on Tuesday will be Mauro Junior, Madueke, Vinicius and Boscagli.
Predicted line-up of PSV Eindhoven:
Benitez, Hoever, Obispo, Teze, Max, Veerman, Sangaré, Til, Gakpo, de Jong, Saibari
Last matches played by PSV Eindhoven:
Eredivisie
07/08/2022 – PSV Eindhoven 4 – 1 Emmen
Champions League Qualifier
03/08/2022 – AS Monaco 1 – 1 PSV Eindhoven
Super Cup
31/07/2022 – Ajax Amsterdam 3 – 5 PSV Eindhoven
Friendly club matches
23/07/2022 – PSV Eindhoven 2 – 1 Real Betis
20/07/2022 – PSV Eindhoven 5 – 0 Eindhoven
Monaco – Statistics & current form
At the beginning of last season, AS Monaco went through a weak phase. This phase also included the elimination in the Champions League qualifiers against Donetsk. Although ex-coach Kovac got his act together before the winter break, he was sacked during the winter break after losing the dressing room and turning important key players against him. In addition, the management was unhappy with the development of individual players, so that even a winning streak before Christmas could not save him.
Will Monaco win again in Eindhoven?
AS Monaco’s Europa League season was also mixed. Although they won the group, they were eliminated in the round of 16 against Braga. This was also the only away defeat in the past European Cup season. Before that, they remained undefeated in four away games, but drew three times. The only win came against Eindhoven. Monaco can be expected to do the same again next Tuesday – with PSV Eindhoven against Monaco, betting on the French side to progress will be rewarded with odds above two.
After all, the spectators in the away games of the team from the principality mostly got their money’s worth. Only in the last 16 of the Europa League against Braga were there no goals scored on either side in Monaco’s European away games last season. For PSV Eindhoven against AS Monaco, the odds on goals on both sides can therefore already be checked. Coach Clement will be missing in the second leg alongside his king transfer Minamino, Badiashile, Henrique, Okou, Geubbels and Boadu.
Predicted Monaco line-up:
Nübel, Jakobs, Maripan, Disasi, Aguilar, Matazo, Fofana, Gelson Martins, Diop, Diatta, Ben Yedder
Last matches played by Monaco:
Ligue 1
06/08/2022 – Strasbourg 1 – 2 AS Monaco
Champions League Qualifier
03/08/2022 – AS Monaco 1 – 1 PSV Eindhoven
Friendly club matches
28/07/2022 – Southampton 3 – 1 AS Monaco
24/07/2022 – FC Porto 2 – 1 AS Monaco
17/07/2022 – Inter Milan 2 – 2 AS Monaco
PSV Eindhoven – Monaco Direct comparison / H2H record
The two teams have faced each other in a total of seven competitive matches in various European club competitions so far. The overall balance is as good as even. Eindhoven have won twice and the French have won three times. There have also been four draws. The goal difference, 9:8, is slightly in Monaco’s favour.
Only last season, both teams met in the group stage of the Europa League. At that time, Monaco got the upper hand with 2:1 at the Philips Stadion.
PSV Eindhoven – Monaco tip
When Eindhoven play, there is usually good entertainment – the offensive, Dutch style of play in a 4-3-3, which is also often variably converted into a 4-2-3-1, naturally favours high-scoring games. Eindhoven almost always score themselves, especially in home games, but are vulnerable at the back. The starting position is also clear: as soon as one team scores the first goal, the other team has to take risks and risk everything. That’s why we predict that both Benitez and his opposite number Nübel will have to make at least one save in PSV Eindhoven’s game against Monaco.
The fact that the Dutch Eredivisie does not match the strength of the top leagues in Europe was something PSV Eindhoven had to experience once again last year. Although they won 14 of their 17 league games at home, they did not win a single match at home against an opponent from the top 5 leagues in Europe. In addition, they have lost some quality in their attack.
Monaco, one of the strongest away teams of the past Ligue 1 season, is now visiting. The French squad is also worth about twice as much as that of Eindhoven. That’s why we doubt the home team’s role as favourites in this match and tip PSV Eindhoven against Monaco that the Monegasques will prevail in the end.
