Will the Nerazzurri defend their narrow lead?
Before football heads into its first international break of 2023, the quarter-finalists still have to be determined in the international competitions. In the top flight, four of the eight teams have already been decided, with two more to follow on Tuesday evening. FC Porto and Inter Milan will face each other at the Estadio do Dragao, with almost identical betting odds offered on the home and away win respectively when betting on the 1X2 market. Accordingly, in the “To Qualify”, the visitors from Italy are clearly to be favoured, who go into this match with a 1-0 advantage from the first leg.
The pressure is accordingly on the shoulders of Sergio Conceicao’s team, who must take charge in this match and need at least a goal to keep their quarter-final chances intact. Already on Friday night, both teams were in action in the national championship. On paper, each had an easy task, but it was by no means a casual warm-up exercise for the top flight. Porto struggled to win, Inter even lost at relegation candidates Spezia Calcio. A successful dress rehearsal looks different.
Porto – Statistics & current form
There are no easy opponents in the last 16 of the UEFA Champions League, but as group winners there is always hope of a feasible draw. FC Porto won the Leverkusen group in autumn 2022 ahead of surprise team Club Brugge. Inter Milan was an extremely unpleasant draw, which was also confirmed in the first leg.
The home record is encouraging for the home side
While Porto go into the game trailing, a 0:1 is a result where anything is still possible. Especially with the abolition of the away goals rule, even an Inter goal would not mean a preliminary decision. Porto will be hoping that the statistics will help, as they have won all of their last four international home games against Italian teams. In the knockout phase of the top flight, Porto have lost their first match seven times, six of them against Italian opposition, but the only exception has been against an Italian side. Roma could still be eliminated in 2018/19.
A straight bet on a home win seems a little risky, but an interesting bet on Porto against Inter Milan is Draw-No-Bet 1 in favour of the home side. Conceicao’s charges not only have good memories of Italian teams, but are generally very strong at home. 30 of 36 possible points have been scored at home this season.
On Friday evening, there was a laborious 3:2 home victory against Estoril Praia. Top scorer Mehdi Taremi was once again the match-winner with a converted penalty. It was his 13th goal in the domestic league and the Iranian has already scored five times in this CL season.
Last matches played by Porto:
Liga Portugal
11/03/2023 – FC Porto 3 – 2 Estoril
05/03/2023 – Chaves 1 – 3 FC Porto
27/02/2023 – FC Porto 1 – 2 Gil Vicente
Champions League Final
23/02/2023 – Inter Milan 1 – 0 FC Porto
Liga Portugal
19/02/2023 – FC Porto 1 – 0 Rio Ave
Inter Milan – Statistics & current form
The Nerazzurri are in for another hot spring. The Scudetto is no longer an issue, given the 18-point gap to the Partenopei from Napoli, but the battle for one of the three remaining Champions League spots is still extremely exciting. The Inzaghi team is currently in second place, but the lead over the fifth-placed team is just three points. So it’s all the more painful to see a defeat like the one Inter suffered in La Spezia on Friday evening, when they were surprisingly beaten 2-1 by Spezia Calcio.
Weak away record
Once again, the blue-and-blacks from Milan had big problems away from home. While the home record is very strong with eleven wins and only two defeats, the Nerazzurri show a completely different face away from home. They have collected an average of just 1.31 points. In addition, the Inzaghi team has suffered more defeats (six) than victories (five) on foreign soil and has a negative goal difference of -5.
So the Italian top club should not feel safe despite the narrow lead. Moreover, the memories of Portuguese teams are not particularly positive, as only one of the last eight guest appearances in Portugal ended victoriously. Therefore, there is no value to be found in the odds on Porto against Inter Milan. Inter certainly have the stronger squad in terms of quality, but their poor away performance still gives the hosts a slight advantage.
Last matches of Inter Milan:
Serie A
11/03/2023 – Spezia 2 – 1 Inter Milan
05/03/2023 – Inter Milan 2 – 0 Lecce
26/02/2023 – Bologna 1 – 0 Inter Milan
Champions League Final
23/02/2023 – Inter Milan 1 – 0 FC Porto
Series A
19/02/2023 – Inter Milan 3 – 1 Udinese
Porto – Inter Milan Direct comparison / H2H balance
In the first leg, Porto met the Nerazzurri from Milan for the third time at the Giuseppe Meazza Stadium and for the third time they had to travel home without anything countable in their luggage. Inter have won all three home games against FC Porto. The first leg was decided by the Belgian Romelo Lukaku in the closing stages. When he scored in the 86th minute, Porto were already shorthanded due to an Otavio sending-off. Conceicao’s side, however, can take hope from the two previous meetings at the Estadio do Dragao, where Inter Milan have never won. Porto won once and the points were shared once – both matches were played in 2005.
Porto – Inter Milan tip
In injury time, Inter Milan missed a great chance to score the second goal in the first leg. This would actually have been a small preliminary decision, now the knockout duel with the Portuguese is still a relatively open affair. Due to the poor performance of the Nerazzurri away from home, the prediction on the Draw No Bet 1 between Porto and Inter Milan is definitely recommended. The tendency is more towards the hosts at the Estadio do Dragao.
However, the neutral football fan will not get to see a high-class, attacking game on Tuesday evening. The Italians will concentrate on defensive work and try to defend their narrow lead. All the more surprising is the fact that for Porto against Inter Milan, the tip on the “Both teams meet: No” attracts more than double the stake. Value is definitely available, six units are used for this bet
