Will Oman get their last chance?
Crunch time in the Asian World Cup qualifiers. With Iran, the first team from Asia has already punched its ticket for the 2022 World Cup. Another matchday in the AFC is on the agenda this week. In Group B, the top teams from Saudi Arabia, Japan and Australia will be battling it out for the first three places.
Oman may even have something to say about this. But for that to happen, the Omanis need a home win against Australia on Tuesday. The top two teams in this group will book a ticket to Qatar. The Saudis have the best chances with 19 points. Japan, with 15 points, and the Socceroos, with 14 points, are in the running, especially as the third-placed team still has a chance of participating in the World Cup via Asian and then intercontinental play-offs.
Oman are only ranked fourth at the moment and are seven points behind the Australians in third position. The Reds’ prospects are minimal. They need three wins of their own and the team from Down Under needs to lose three times. However, after the Australia match, the Omanis have solvable tasks ahead of them in China and Vietnam, while Graham Taylor’s side still have to contend with top teams Japan and Saudi Arabia.
Ahead of kick-off between Oman and Australia, however, we’re predicting that Oman’s last chance will be gone as early as Tuesday. We find it hard to imagine a home win in Muscat.
Oman – Statistics & current form
Before the start of qualifying, the Omanis described themselves as one of the secret favourites for one of the Asian World Cup tickets. To some extent, they have lived up to their boastful proclamations, including a 1-0 win in Japan at the start of the final group stage. On balance, however, the Reds were unable to deliver what they would have liked.
The last hope
So they are clearly running behind the music in World Cup qualifying, even if the last word has not yet been spoken there. At the FIFA Arab Cup in December, Branko Ivankovic’s team was eliminated in the preliminary round and overall they have just one win from their last seven matches. That will hardly be enough to play the odds on a home win in the match between Oman and Australia.
Rather, Oman are expected to bury their last theoretical chances on Tuesday. On Thursday, however, the Reds delivered a decent performance in their visit to Saudi Arabia. The bottom line, however, was a 1-0 defeat. Oman played a decent game and at least a point would not have been undeserved for Branko Ivankovic’s team.
On Tuesday, the Omanis will be forced to act. A win is a must. The home side will therefore have to look for their luck on the offensive. We can therefore imagine that the tactical alignment will be somewhat different. However, we do not expect any major changes in personnel, because if the team from Oman lacks anything, it is depth in the squad.
Predicted line-up of Oman:
Al Rashidi – Al Harthi, Al Khamisi, Durbein, Saleh – Fawaz. Al Saadi, A. Al Alawi, Al Yahmadi – R. Al Alawi, Al Ghassani – Coach: Ivankovic
Last matches played by Oman:
World Cup – AFC Qualifiers – 3rd Round – Group B
01/27 2022 – Saudi Arabia 1 – 0 Oman
FIFA Arab Cup Final Stage
12/10 2021 – Tunisia 2 – 1 Oman
FIFA Arab Cup Grp. A
12/06 2021 – Oman 3 – 0 Bahrain
12/03 2021 – Oman 1 – 2 Qatar
11/30 2021 – Iraq 1 – 1 Oman
Australia – Statistics & current form
The strictness of the Australian authorities in combating the virus became clear not least before the Australian Open in tennis. Socceroos coach Graham Arnold, for example, was also forced to refrain from coaching his team last Thursday after testing positive. However, the experienced coach is expected to be back on the sidelines on Tuesday in Oman.
Stable Socceroos
Overall, the Australians are doing very well. After all, there was only one defeat in the last 15 games. However, you can also look at this statistic from a different angle, as there has also only been one win in the last four games. In any case, because of this record, we would at least not predict a home win in the clash between Oman and Australia.
Last Thursday, it wasn’t imperative that Graham Arnold was on the sidelines. Co-coach Rene Meulensteen led his side to an emphatic 4-0 win over overmatched Vietnamese. Tom Rogic, Jamie Maclaren, Riley McGree and Craig Goodwin were the scorers for the Socceroos, who remain within touching distance of the top two places in this group stage.
Coach Graham Arnold will therefore be back in Oman. Two players are also returning. Ajdin Hrustic from Eintracht Frankfurt has served his suspension and could slide into the starting eleven. This may also be the case for defender Aziz Behich, who was unable to travel to the match against Vietnam due to a snowstorm in Turkey.
Predicted line-up of Australia:
Ryan – Behich. Degenek, Sainsbury, Karacic – Irvine, Hrustic – Rogic, Leckie, Boyle – Maclaren – coach: Arnold
Last matches played by Australia:
World Cup – AFC Qualifiers – 3rd Round – Group B
01/27 2022 – Australia 4 – 0 Vietnam
11/16 2021 – China 1 – 1 Australia
11/11 2021 – Australia 0 – 0 Saudi Arabia
10/12 2021 – Japan 2 – 1 Australia
10/07 2021 – Australia 3 – 1 Oman
Oman – Australia Direct comparison / H2H balance
Since the Australians moved to Asia from the Omani Federation, the Socceroos and the Omanis have crossed paths a total of eleven times. The direct comparison is a clear affair for the team from Down Under. The Australians are 6:1 ahead after victories. Three games ended in a draw.
In the last three encounters, the Socceroos have won three and every time a bet on a handicap victory for the Australians would have been successful. That was also the case in the first leg of the current qualifying campaign. The Socceroos won 3-1 in Doha after goals from Awer Mabil, Martin Boyle and Mitchell Duke. For the Reds, Arshad Al Alawi equalised 1-1 in the first leg.
Oman – Australia Tip
Oman need three wins in their last three group games to catch the Australians in theory, but the Socceroos would then have to lose all three games. This scenario is conceivable, but on Tuesday alone there is a lack of belief that the Reds will prevail against the Australian team in Muscat.
The Omanis have won just one of their last seven internationals and have lost each of their last three matches against the Socceroos by significant margins. The Australians, on the other hand, have lost just one of their last 15 matches.
We can imagine a lot in this match, but somehow none of it has anything to do with a win for the Omanis. A handicap win for the visitors does not seem out of the question and an away win without conceding a goal is also conceivable. However, we remain modest for now and play the betting odds on an Australian win in the Oman vs. Australia match.
