Will Genk break the Greeks’ defensive bulwark?

The Europa League skips the first two qualifying rounds, and it is only in the third qualifying round that matches are actually played in Europe’s second most important club competition; there are seven knockout duels in total. In the duel between the Greek top club Olympiakos Piraeus and Genk, identical betting odds are offered on advancing. Both teams have plenty of international experience and “relegation” to the Conference League play-offs would be a huge disappointment for both teams.

Indeed, the winner of this knockout duel has the best chance of advancing to the group stage. The draw for the play-offs resulted in a clash against Serbian representative Cukaricki in the final round, where they will be considered relatively clear favourites. The loser will face the winner of the match between Adana Demirspor (Turkey) and NK Osijek (Croatia) in the Conference League.

The first leg at the Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium will kick off at 9pm on Thursday. The bookmakers are predicting a home win between Olympiakos Piraeus and Genk. The betting odds are just over 2.00. For the Greeks, however, it will be their first competitive match of the 2023/24 season, while the Belgians already have four games under their belt.

The rhythm of the competition will certainly play into the Belgians’ favour. This is another reason why we feel the pendulum is slightly swinging towards the Belgians in this knockout duel. Accordingly, we see Genk with a slight advantage in the To-Qualify and recommend this bet in our three top tips.

Olympiakos Piraeus – Statistics & current form

Olympiakos Piraeus have no less than 47 championships to their name. For several years, the club was virtually unrivalled at national level, last year the traditional club reached a completely disappointing third place. The gap to champions AEK Athens in the final standings was a staggering ten points.

Defensive specialist as new head coach

Not surprisingly, there is a new coach on the bench of the Greeks after this disappointment in the new season. With the Spaniard Diego Martinez, the club management managed a spectacular signing. The former professional made a name for himself as coach of FC Granada and was considered a top coach in Spain.

With him, Olympiakos Piraeus has signed a man who places a lot of emphasis on defence. This can be clearly seen in his statistics as Granada coach, as he conceded only 167 goals in 146 matches. Mind you, as big underdogs in the Spanish LaLiga.

There will be no spectacular offensive football, but Greek football is not really known for that anyway. With Diego Martinez on the sidelines, there will be countless games in which betting on an Under 2.5 will be the right decision. Especially in games against teams at eye level, the risk is kept very low. His first competitive game is just such a match and with a lot at stake, we hardly expect any offensive action worth mentioning. For Olympiakos Piraeus vs. Genk, the odds on a maximum of two goals are recommended accordingly.

In terms of personnel, there have not only been changes in the coaching position, but Olympiakos have also signed experienced players in Vicente Iborra (Villarreal), Quini (Granada) and Ayoub El Kaabi (from Qatar). This is also in line with Martinez’s idea, who wants to seal the spaces with a lot of routine in the game against the ball.

Predicted line-up of Olympiakos Piraeus:
Tzolakis – Ramon, Abou Cisse, Ba, Rodinei – Mady Camara, Iborra – Masouras, Biel, Garry Rodrigues – El Kaabi

Genk – Statistics & current form

For the Belgian club from Genk, the duel in Piraeus is merely the consolation game. Head coach Wouter Vrancken’s team started as Belgian runners-up in the qualifiers for the top flight and were considered heavy favourites against Servette Geneva. Especially after the Belgians played in overtime from the fifth minute on in the second leg. Nevertheless, after a 2-2 draw in the first leg, Genk could not win the match and after another 2-2 draw, it went to extra time and subsequently to a penalty shoot-out, in which the Belgians lost out.

Next disappointment against KAS Eupen

To be the favourites for 115 minutes in overtime and still fail in the end has clearly left its mark. In the home match against KAS Eupen, Genk conceded the 0:1 in the second minute of the match, could not recover from this early shock and had to swallow the second bitter pill in front of their home fans within only a few hours. Genk is generally regarded as a very strong team at home. In the 2022/23 season, 15 of the 20 home games were won.

The fact that the first leg in the Europa League qualifiers will now be played away from home may not be a disadvantage after the recent results. Due to the recent defeats, Genk will by no means be unconditionally looking for the way forward, but will first of all be anxious to bring security into the game. It would not be surprising if the game in Piraeus will mainly take place between the two 16s. A (preliminary) decision is not yet expected on Thursday and besides betting on the under 2.5, the prediction that not both teams will score is also recommended between Olympiakos Piraeus and Genk.

In terms of personnel, the absence of captain Bryn Heynen weighs heavily on the visitors. The 26-year-old central midfielder had to miss out against Eupen due to an ankle injury and is unlikely to be an option in the first leg.

Predicted line-up of Genk:
Vandevoordt – Kayembe, McKenzie, Cuesta, Munoz – Hrosovsky, Galarza – Tresor, El Khannuss, Paintsil – Arokodare

Olympiakos Piraeus – Genk Direct comparison / H2H-balance

While both clubs have regular international appearances, this will still be the first time the teams have faced each other in a competitive match on Thursday night. Their only previous clash was a non-relevant friendly in 2018, with Olympiakos’ last experience with a Belgian side coming against Royal Antwerp (win and loss) in the 2021/22 season. Genk last played a competitive match against a team from Greece in the 2002/03 season.

Olympiakos Piraeus – Genk tip

While many of the current qualifiers still feature no-names, this is a clash between two renowned teams with plenty of tradition. The Greeks are considered to be very strong at home, but were unable to prove this last season, especially internationally. In the first match under the new coach Diego Martinez, a lot is at stake. Especially due to the limited preparation (one win from the last four games), there is no value to be found in Olympiakos Piraeus vs. Genk with odds of just 2.20 for the home win forecast.

However, there is also a big question mark behind Genk after their horror week and therefore we refrain from making a recommendation on the outcome of this match. Interesting betting opportunities are nevertheless available, in particular the bet that not both teams will score is recommended for Olympiakos Piraeus against Genk. There won’t be much offensive football to watch at the Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, which makes betting odds of up to 2.00 all the more surprising. Five units are recommended as a stake here.