Will the Magpies defeat the home-strong promoted side?

A torn matchday 28 in the English Premier League is on the agenda this weekend. For not only does the ball roll in the country’s top division, but there are also the quarter-final matches in the English FA Cup before the first international break in 2023. The football weekend on the island opens on Friday evening with the league match between promoted Nottingham and Newcastle.

This assessment is of course underlined by a look at the current table of the English Premier League. The home side are in 14th place with 26 points, while the visitors have 44 points and are still fighting for qualification for the UEFA Champions League. So there is definitely a difference in class, but the promoted team has already surprised on several occasions at home. Is the prediction on the “Tricky Trees” at the City Ground justified for Nottingham against Newcastle? Reasons for and against are looked at in more detail in the following lines.

Nottingham – Statistics & current form

Once again it was “nothing but expenses” for Steve Cooper’s team in an away game. The promoted team from Nottingham is a welcome guest this season, as the team is much weaker on foreign grounds than at home. Last weekend, they were beaten 3-1 by Tottenham Hotspurs. The consolation goal by centre-back Joe Worrall in the 81st minute was almost a rarity. It was just the fourth away goal in the 13th away game.

In great form at home

At the City Ground in front of a maximum crowd of 30,445, the Premier League return shows a completely different face. Nottingham have picked up 20 of their 26 points (77 per cent of the points) in front of their home crowd, laying the foundations for the completely new-look side not to be currently in a relegation spot. Only Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool have an even greater discrepancy between home points (30) and points away from home (twelve) this season.

Thanks to strong performances at home, staying in the league is absolutely realistic. Steve Cooper’s team has now scored in nine home games in a row (four wins, five draws). Only Manchester United have an even longer run of Premier League home games without defeat (twelve games). These figures would justify a double chance 1X bet between Nottingham and Newcastle.

However, caution is advised, as the home side’s personnel situation is by no means positive. The list of absentees includes several players who, despite the very broad squad, cannot really be adequately replaced. The absence of Brennan Johnson is particularly painful, as the Welsh international has scored six of his seven PL goals in front of his home crowd this season.

Last Nottingham games:

Premier League
11/03/2023 – Tottenham 3 – 1 Nottingham Forest

05/03/2023 – Nottingham Forest 2 – 2 Everton

25/02/2023 – West Ham 4 – 0 Nottingham Forest

18/02/2023 – Nottingham Forest 1 – 1 Manchester City

11/02/2023 – Fulham 2 – 0 Nottingham Forest

Newcastle – Statistics & current form

After losing points, the situation remains very positive for head coach Eddie Howe’s team. Unlike Tottenham Hotspurs, the Magpies still have two catch-up games up their sleeve and could thus make up the current four-point gap to the fourth Champions League starting spot. Qualifying for the top flight would definitely be a big surprise, as it was not expected despite the many Saudi millions.

Newcastle have forgotten how to win

Despite finishing fifth in the table, the Magpies have held a number of bests this season. Newcastle United have conceded just 18 goals this season and have the best offence in the league. The two title contenders Arsenal and Manchester City have the second best defence in the league with 25 goals conceded. However, there is still a lot of room for improvement, as the 37 goals scored are not particularly high for a CL contender.

As a result, the results in recent weeks and months have been relatively modest. Newcastle United have only won two of their last nine league games. Last weekend’s 2-1 win over Wolverhampton Wanderers was the first time Newcastle have scored more than one goal since Boxing Day (3-0 at Leicester). The winning goal was once again scored by Miguel Almiron. With his eleventh goal of the season, he has now scored 30 per cent of all team goals. A rate that was last surpassed at Newcastle by Loic Remy in the 2013/14 season with 14 out of 43 goals.

Given the recent Magpies results (only nine out of 25 games with an over 2.5), Nottingham vs Newcastle odds are priced at more than 2.00 when betting on at least three goals. Nevertheless, the over 2.5 can be found in our top tips. Nottingham are clearly more goal-threatening at home, for Newcastle a win is necessary in the fight for the top flight. Accordingly, more risk must be taken.

Last games of Newcastle:

Premier League
12/03/2023 – Newcastle 2 – 1 Wolverhampton

04/03/2023 – Manchester City 2 – 0 Newcastle

Carabao Cup
26/02/2023 – Manchester United 2 – 0 Newcastle

Premier League
19/02/2023 – Newcastle 0 – 2 Liverpool FC

12/02/2023 – Bournemouth 1 – 1 Newcastle

Nottingham – Newcastle Direct comparison / H2H record

A small glimmer of hope for the promoted side is the fact that the last two league home games against Newcastle United (2009 and 2016) were won. At that time, however, the teams faced each other in the second-tier Championship. In the Premier League, the prediction of a win for the Tricky Trees in the Nottingham vs. Newcastle clash has never been correct, as Newcastle have won six of their nine matches, with three games ending in a draw. The first leg of this season’s fixture came on matchday one, with Newcastle prevailing 2-0.

Nottingham – Newcastle Tip

The Tricky Trees’ strong home record could well be used as an argument to justify predicting a point win for the home side in Nottingham v Newcastle. However, there are strong doubts because the Cooper team does not have good memories of Friday matches and also has to do without a large number of important players. Newcastle managed to break free with victory against Wolves, and the Magpies have also not lost to a promoted team for 13 PL games.

With the visitors from the north of England, bets on few goals have been very promising this season, yet our designated main tip uses an opposite direction. For Nottingham against Newcastle, odds of up to 4.00 are offered for the bet “away win & both teams score” with a moderate three units. Nottingham is very successful at home and offensively much more dangerous. However, a win for the visitors is to be expected due to the difference in quality, so the fourfold stake looks extremely interesting.

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