Sixth defeat en suite for the promoted side?

In the clash to conclude the current Premier League matchday, the form curve of the two teams is completely divergent. At the City Ground on Monday from 9pm, promoted Nottingham and Aston Villa face each other. The home side are now bottom of the table and have suffered five defeats in a row, while Aston Villa have put their poor start to the season behind them and are unbeaten in three games.

The promoted club has made a big splash in recent weeks after spending almost €160 million on transfers and signing 23 new players. This has not paid off so far and after five defeats in a row, Nottingham are considered relatively clear underdogs against Aston Villa according to current betting odds. A 3.40 is on offer for a home win for the Tricky Trees, while the odds on a win for Gerrard’s side are in the region of 2.15-2.20.

The momentum is undoubtedly in favour of the visitors, but they have yet to celebrate an away win this season. That should change on Monday – and the chances of that happening are very good indeed.

Nottingham – Statistics & current form

Evangelos Marinakis, president of Nottingham Forest and also of Greek top club Olympiakos Piraeus, is not necessarily known for continuity. After returning to the Premier League, money was no object and the Garibaldi Reds were given a completely new look. No fewer than 23 new players were signed, leaving promotion coach Steve Cooper with a completely revamped squad.

There is no doubt that the quality of the squad has increased significantly and the managers also managed to land some well-known players. After four points from the first three games, the start of the season was quite successful. But that is no longer the case, as the last five league games were all lost. Goalkeeper Dean Henderson was forced to make 18 saves in the process. In total, Nottingham Forest have conceded 21 goals, the last time Nottingham conceded more goals (23) in their first eight league games was in the 1929/30 season.

A strong signing – Cooper extends

After suffering a resounding 4-0 defeat to Leicester City (winless to date) in last weekend’s relegation clash, the media were certain that Marinakis would make the next move. But to the surprise of many, common sense prevailed. Promotion hero Steve Cooper was not sacked, but the Welshman was given a new contract. A strong sign that he will be allowed the time to mould the completely rebuilt team.

Time is needed, because Cooper’s style is characterised by extremely high pressing. The team, which has been thrown together, still has major coordination problems and thus repeatedly opens up enormous spaces for the opponents. Against the Foxes, Nottingham played in what felt like a 4-2-4 system at times and lacked any protection.

The Tricky Trees will certainly still be competitive, but by then the distance to the saving shore could already be (too) big. Currently, there are no arguments whatsoever to justify betting on the home side between Nottingham and Aston Villa.

Predicted line-up of Nottingham:
Henderson – Lodi, McKenna, Cook, Williams – Kouyate, O’Brien – Lingard, Gibbs-White, Johnson – Awoniyi

Last matches played by Nottingham:

Premier League
04/10/2022 – Leicester 4 – 0 Nottingham Forest

17/09/2022 – Nottingham Forest 2 – 3 Fulham

03/09/2022 – Nottingham Forest 2 – 3 Bournemouth

01/09/2022 – Manchester City 6 – 0 Nottingham Forest

28/08/2022 – Nottingham Forest 0 – 2 Tottenham

Aston Villa – Statistics & current form

Although Steven Gerrard’s side managed a 2-1 home win over Everton FC on matchday two, there wasn’t much else to cheer about in the early rounds of the new season. Four of the first five games were lost and then the difficult home game against champions Manchester City awaited. However, Gerrard’s eleven put in a splendid performance there and achieved a deserved 1-1 draw.

Two goals to nil in a row

The Erling Braut Haaland goal conceded was Aston Villa’s 11th consecutive Premier League game in which they have conceded at least one goal. However, Haaland’s goal was to be the last conceded so far, as Emiliano Martinez kept his box clean against both Southampton (1-0) and Leeds United (0-0). The Gaucho has now gone 220 minutes without conceding a goal.

The goalless draw at Leeds was Aston Villa’s first away point of the season. The poor away record (0-1-3) is certainly a fact that results in a bit of doubt between Nottingham and Aston Villa when predicting the away win. However, the match-up undoubtedly favours the team from Birmingham.

Especially in midfield, Aston Villa will have a clear preponderance. While Nottingham allow a lot of space in this area, Steven Gerrad has strong players on the dribble in Jacob Ramsey, Luiz Douglas, John McGinn or even Philippe Coutinho, who can break through the lines and thus give the Villians an advantage going forward.

Predicted Aston Villa line-up:
Martinez – Augustinsson, Mings, Konsa, Young – Ramsey, Luiz Douglas, McGinn – Coutinho, Watkins, Bailey

Last matches played by Aston Villa:

Premier League
02/10/2022 – Leeds 0 – 0 Aston Villa

17/09/2022 – Aston Villa 1 – 0 Southampton

03/09/2022 – Aston Villa 1 – 1 Manchester City

01/09/2022 – Arsenal FC 2 – 1 Aston Villa

28/08/2022 – Aston Villa 0 – 1 West Ham

Nottingham – Aston Villa Direct comparison / H2H record

For the first time since the 2018/19 season, the two clubs face each other in the league. Back then, however, the clash took place in the second-tier Championship and the players on the pitch were by no means stingy with goals. A spectacular 5-5 draw took place at Villa Park, while Aston Villa won 3-1 at Nottingham Forest’s City Ground stadium.

There have only been ten English Premier League matches between the two sides (between 1992 and 1994), and Nottingham have only won one against the Villians (four draws, five defeats). The referee in the October 1994 win was one Keith Cooper, father of current Nottingham coach Steve.

Nottingham – Aston Villa Tip

The contract extension for Steve Cooper came as a surprise, but should give him time to internalise his playing philosophy. This time is still needed, currently the promoted team is still a bunch of individual players and not a unit. Aston Villa, on the other hand, are a well-rehearsed unit with a lot of quality in the centre. Cooper will not change his attacking style of play and therefore betting on many goals between Nottingham and Aston Villa is a good option. The direct comparison is also clearly in favour of this bet.

The probability that the guest will score more goals in this match is very high. Clear form advantages can be found with Steven Gerrard’s team, who are quite rightly considered this clear favourite despite a weak away record. The Villians not only have individual quality, but also great strength as a team. The home side’s negative run is unlikely to come to an end, with six units recommended as the stakes between Nottingham and Aston Villa for the away win prediction.