Will Leeds inflict another bitter defeat on the Farke eleven?

The majority of the tenth Premier League matchday will take place on Saturday, with only two games on Sunday’s schedule. Among others, the relegation clash between promoted Norwich and Leeds will be played at Carrow Road. Even at this early stage of the season, the Farke eleven are up to their necks and a win would almost be necessary for survival.

With just two points, last season’s champions are currently bottom of the table. Marcelo Bielsa’s visitors have also failed to find their feet so far this season and are only just above the ominous line in 17th place. Although the results still leave something to be desired, the visitors are considered relatively clear favourites. Odds of just over 2.00 are being offered for the visitors on Norwich v Leeds.

Statistics are definitely in favour of perfectionist Marcelo Bielsa’s Whites, as Leeds are yet to go unbeaten in eight games against teams who were in a relegation spot at the time of the game (six wins, two draws) since promotion last season. The game kicks off at Carrow Road on Sunday afternoon at 3pm.

Norwich – Statistics & current form

Too weak for the Premier League, too strong for the Championship – this thesis describes relatively well the situation with the Canaries of Norwich. In 2019/20, no money was put into the squad and the following relegation was no big surprise. This season, the Farke eleven is once again considered a glaring outsider, but has put far more money in hand to perhaps still manage to stay in the league.

Disastrous statistics

The stark truth, however, hurts extremely as Norwich look to have made an even worse start to the season than they did two years ago. In their first nine league games, the promoted side have managed to pick up just two meagre points and boast an abysmal goal difference of -21. Only in 1946/47 did Norwich concede more goals in nine games (currently 23, then 27).

A -21 goal ratio after nine matchdays is historically the worst since the English Premier League was introduced in the 1990s. Daniel Farke’s PL stats are also disastrous, with 0.49 points per game, 0.60 goals scored per game and only 10.6 per cent of games won, making him the worst Premier League coach to have been in charge for at least one season.

However, a change of coach is by no means being considered at the Yellow and Blue, as the former BVB youth coach is held in excellent esteem by those in charge as well as the fans.

Extreme problems on the offensive

23 goals conceded in nine games are underground, but the far bigger problem is domiciled in the offensive. So far, Pukki & Co have only been able to cheer twice and do not provide any relief at any point of the game.

If the games of 2019/20 are still included, Norwich have never scored more than once in the last 27 Premier League games. In total, there have only been seven Norwich goals in this period. With this in mind, the tip for Norwich against Leeds is that not both teams will score.

Predicted Norwich line-up:
Krul – Hanley, Williams, Kabak – Giannoulis, Normann, Lees-Melou, McLean, Aarons – Pukki, Sargent

Last matches played by Norwich:

Premier League
10/23 2021 – Chelsea London 7 – 0 Norwich

10/16 2021 – Norwich 0 – 0 Brighton

10/02 2021 – Burnley 0 – 0 Norwich

09/25 2021 – Everton 2 – 0 Norwich

Carabao Cup
09/21 2021 – Norwich 0 – 3 Liverpool FC

Leeds – Statistics & current form

In the last season, the promoted team was still the talk of the town and knew how to excite the fans with pleasing and unconditional offensive play. The Bielsa team narrowly missed out on qualification for Europe.

Best PL start since 1988/89

All the more surprising has been the season so far for Leeds United. After nine matchdays, they have just seven points to their name. The last time Leeds had fewer points at this point was in the 1988/89 season (six).

(Partly) responsible for Leeds’ current misery is certainly their bad luck with injuries. In particular, the absence of top striker Patrick Bamford (17 goals, eight assists last year) leaves a big gap. He has been absent for the last four games due to an ankle injury, and the Norwich match will in all likelihood also come too soon. In return, Bielsa will be able to count on Kalvin Phillips again, with Junior Firpo also an option for the left-back position.

Strong performance not rewarded

Last weekend, Bielsa was still without the duo and watched from the sidelines as his side salvaged a last-second 1-1 draw against Wolves. A lucky point because of the goal in minute 94, but a well-deserved one considering the performance.

Leeds play very pleasing football for much of the season, but repeatedly fail to reward themselves. Although the results don’t match, Leeds are currently clearly above Norwich in terms of football. Accordingly, in the relegation clash between Norwich and Leeds, the prediction on the visitors is worth a recommendation.

Predicted Leeds line-up:
Meslier – Dallas, Cooper, Llorente, Shackleton – Harrison, Phillips, Struijk, Raphinha – Rodrigo, James

Last matches played by Leeds:

Carabao Cup
10/26 2021 – Arsenal London 2 – 0 Leeds

Premier League
10/23 2021 – Leeds 1 – 1 Wolverhampton

10/16 2021 – Southampton 1 – 0 Leeds

10/02 2021 – Leeds 1 – 0 Watford

09/25 2021 – Leeds 1 – 2 West Ham

Norwich – Leeds Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

There is not much positive news for head coach Daniel Farke’s Canaries at the moment. However, the direct comparison in the English Premier League with the Whites certainly gives hope, because Norwich celebrated four wins (one draw, one defeat) in six PL games. However, the last Premier League duel dates back to May 1995, which Leeds won 2-1 and thus fixed Norwich’s relegation.

The teams last faced each other in the second-tier Championship in 2018/19. In both games between Norwich and Leeds, betting on the away win was the right choice, and on Sunday the visitors’ victory attracts odds of just over 2.00.

Norwich – Leeds Tip

It’s not just because of Halloween that both teams are seeing ghosts at the moment, with the spectre of relegation having taken hold early on in the season. Leeds, however, could regain ground on the back of mid-table with an away win at the bottom of the table. Norwich have not been PL-worthy so far and so it is no surprise that the prediction in the Norwich vs Leeds clash favours the away win.

In contrast to the Canaries, Leeds play some very pleasing football and should have plenty of chances to score again. Against the inferior defence of the home side, they should also be able to score goals. That’s why we recommend betting on the visitors in the relegation battle between Norwich and Leeds. More risk-averse bettors also have the option of considering the handicap, which is certainly always worth considering with Norwich at the moment.