Does the Rohr eleven clinch a play-off ticket?
In Europe, ten of the 13 World Cup tickets for the 2022 finals in Qatar have already been awarded at the end of the international match year. In Africa, it will take a little longer before the five participants are decided. On Tuesday, the second round of qualifying will be concluded with the last group matchday, before the ten group winners will play out the African participants in five knockout duels (with first and second legs) in March. In Group C, the big showdown for the group win will take place on Tuesday afternoon, with Nigeria and Cape Verde facing off in Lagos.
Nigeria, coached by German coach Gernot Rohr, are not only favourites in this clash, but also have the advantage of the standings on their side. After five matches, Nigeria have twelve points, while the visitors from Cape Verde have ten. The starting position is therefore clear and Nigeria will only need a draw to keep their World Cup dream alive. A likely scenario, as betting odds of only 1.50 are offered for a home win between Nigeria and Cape Verde.
The Super Eagles are warned, however, as they suffered a surprise 1-0 defeat to the Central African Republic in their last home game. Normally, the much higher quality should be enough for the home side, who can count on countless European legionnaires. The match in the capital Lagos kicks off on Tuesday afternoon at 5 p.m.
Nigeria – Statistics & current form
With the exception of the 2006 World Cup in Germany, Nigeria have appeared at every finals since the 1994 World Cup in the USA. In six World Cup appearances, the Super Eagles have reached the last 16 on three occasions, and have been forced to return home after the preliminary round on three occasions (including 2018 in Russia).
Pure Legionnaires’ Team
For more than a decade, Gernot Rohr, now 68, has been committed to African football. After stints with Gabon, Niger and Burkina Faso, he joined the Super Eagles in August 2016. The German-Frenchman keeps coming back to Europe because his entire team is made up of legionnaires. Nigeria has always had outstanding players in its own ranks and Rohr can also count on some top players at present.
Nigeria’s greatest quality is undoubtedly in the attack. Victor Osimhen from SSC Napoli is outstanding. With the speedy Moses Simon (Nantes), Kelechi Iheneacho (Leicester), veteran Ahmed Musa (Karagümrük) and Paul Onuachu (KRC Genk – recently linked with BVB), Gernot Rohr is spoilt for choice. However, anyone who believes that shooting parties will be the rule because of these qualities is mistaken.
Defensive knows how to convince
As is often the case in African football, Nigeria’s defence may not have the biggest names, but goals conceded are still relatively rare. In 2021, Nigeria has played ten international matches so far and if the clear 4-0 defeat against Mexico is excluded, Nigeria has conceded just three goals in the remaining nine international matches.
A successful bet on “both teams score” was only the right decision in the first leg against Cape Verde this year, otherwise there were goals on one side at most. These arguments would generally speak in favour of a forecast on the under 2.5 for Nigeria vs Cape Verde. Due to the starting situation, however, the guests will also have to act more offensively than usual and thus the great Nigerian offensive quality should be given room to develop.
Predicted line-up of Nigeria:
Okoye – Awaziem, Balogun, Troost-Ekong, Collins – Aribo, Onyeka – Moses Simon, Iheneacho, Musa – Osimhen
Last matches played by Nigeria:
World Cup Qualifiers CAF – 2nd Round – Grp. C
11/13 2021 – Liberia 0 – 2 Nigeria
10/10 2021 – Central African Republic 0 – 2 Nigeria
10/07 2021 – Nigeria 0 – 1 Central African Republic
09/07 2021 – Cape Verde 1 – 2 Nigeria
09/03 2021 – Nigeria 2 – 0 Liberia
Cape Verde – Statistics & current form
Unlike the Super Eagles from Nigeria, the “Crioulos” are a complete unknown on the big football stage. The team from the Cape Verde Islands has never been represented at a World Cup and their history at the Africa Cup is also not yet very pronounced. Cape Verde made their debut in the finals in 2013, when they even reached the quarter-finals in South Africa. In 2015, they made their second appearance, before Cape Verde will be represented at the continental championships in Africa for the third time at the beginning of 2022 in Cameroon.
Legionnaires – but no stars
Chief coach Bubista, a local former professional, has one thing in common with his counterpart Gernot Roht – his team is made up entirely of legionnaires. However, while the Nigerians are represented in the world’s best leagues and play an important role there, this is by no means the case with Cape Verde. The majority are under contract in Portugal, which historically is no surprise due to the former colony situation.
The most valuable player in the Cape Verde squad is Garry Rodrigues, who is now under contract in Greece with Olympiakos Piraeus. But the 30-year-old winger will be unavailable for the crucial clash in Lagos due to injury. So the underdogs are virtually a no-name team that will try to compete with commitment and passion.
Three wins in a row
In essence, the dream of a first World Cup appearance had already evaporated after the first two group games. A draw in Central Africa and a home defeat to Nigeria made for a disappointing start. Thanks to the Nigerian slip-up and three wins in a row of their own, the principle of hope now reigns again.
Cape Verde proved to have good nerves of steel recently, as all three victories were achieved by a one-goal margin. It is striking that the relatively unknown team keeps creating scoring opportunities and goals. In all five qualifying matches so far, Cape Verde has scored at least once, and four times the “both to score” has been crowned with success. Due to the starting position, Cape Verde is forced to look for the offensive, which is why the high odds for betting on at least three goals in Nigeria vs. Cape Verde are a little surprising.
Predicted line-up of Cape Verde:
Vozinha – Stopira, Lopes, Fortes – Joao Paulo, Monteiro, Borges, Nenass – Mendes, Tavares, Vagner
Last matches played by Cape Verde:
CAF World Cup Qualifiers – 2nd Round – Grp. C
11/13 2021 – Cape Verde 2 – 1 Central African Republic
10/10 2021 – Cape Verde 1 – 0 Liberia
10/07 2021 – Liberia 1 – 2 Cape Verde
09/07 2021 – Cape Verde 1 – 2 Nigeria
09/01 2021 – Central African Republic 1 – 1 Cape Verde
Nigeria – Cape Verde Direct comparison / H2H balance
Only twice have the two national teams faced each other. However, the first encounter, a friendly in January 2013, can by no means be considered a yardstick for the deciding match on Tuesday afternoon. The second encounter was, of course, the first leg of the current qualifier. Cape Verde took the early lead, but ex-Wolfsburg player Victor Osimhen equalised shortly afterwards. An own goal in the final quarter of the hour finally decided the game, with favourites Nigeria winning 2-1.
Nigeria – Cape Verde tip
The Rohr eleven have only themselves to blame for the fact that they have to shake again in this last group game. The unexpected upset in October against the Central African Republic now makes for a real final game for the play-off ticket. However, there is not much to prevent the Super Eagles from rejoicing in the end. The difference in quality is enormous and accordingly it is hard to imagine that a bet on the visitors will be successful in Nigeria vs. Cape Verde.
However, the islanders are certainly not walk-ins, but an opponent who can annoy the Super Eagles at times. It is not for nothing that the underdogs have scored at least once in all five qualifiers. Therefore, for the final Group C match between Nigeria and Cape Verde, a bet of six units is recommended when predicting the over 2.5. A 2.28 is a good deal too high here.
