Does the Werkself’s journey end in the Principality?
Although AS Monaco scored three goals on just two good finishes in an unconvincing game, the Monégasques won the first leg at the BayArena.
Now there is every indication that Monaco’s betting on the Rouge et Blanc progressing against Leverkusen will work out, as they have progressed in all ten cases in which they have won the first leg away from home in the knockout stages of a European competition.
Bayer Leverkusen, on the other hand, now have their backs to the wall. The Werkself has always been eliminated in eleven attempts in which the first leg was lost at home. In addition, the Rhinelanders were unable to build momentum at the weekend, losing 3-2 to Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga. The fact that four of their last five competitive matches have been lost (one win) must also be taken into account in the forecast for Monaco against Leverkusen.
Although the non-existent away goals rule plays into the Werkself’s favour, which “only” needs a win with a goal difference to force extra time, there is very little to be said for the Bundesliga side. After all, AS Monaco are unbeaten in 11 competitive matches, have failed to score in only two of their 34 competitive matches in the 2022/23 season and have not lost any of their 13 home matches in the Europa League (or UEFA Cup) since October 1996 (nine wins, four draws).
Accordingly, the bet on the double chance 1X, with which the Monégasques would punch their ticket to the last 16, is coherent. To get a little more out of the odds, we combine this bet with a small goal bet (Ü1.5), as one or two goals are to be expected again.
Monaco – statistics & current form
Although AS Monaco have come close on two occasions, they failed to win the title in both European finals they reached (European Cup Winners’ Cup in 1992 and Champions League in 2004). Since then, the Rouge et Blanc have been dreaming of a third chance.
Under Philippe Clement, the Monégasques are playing a thoroughly promising season. In Ligue 1, they have picked up 50 points from 24 league games, which puts the team from the principality in third place, seven points behind leaders PSG, with hopes of returning to the Champions League.
Only failed to score in two of 34 competitive games in 2022/23
While AS Monaco came back extremely strong from the World Cup break.
In none of their eleven competitive matches after the winter break have the Rouge et Blanc lost in the regular season (eight wins, three draws). After the 3-2 win in Leverkusen, the Monégasques also enjoyed a successful dress rehearsal in the 2-1 win in Brest at the weekend.
The principality outfit even won their last home match to date 3-1 against leaders Paris Saint-Germain, which means the momentum is clearly in favour of Clement’s goal-scoring side, who have failed to score in just two of their 34 competitive games in the 2022/23 season – both times in the Europa League group stage.
Always progressed after winning away game
Although the performance in the first leg was unconvincing, the betting odds are now clearly swinging in the Rouge et Blanc’s direction for Monaco against Leverkusen. In ten cases in which the Monégasques have won the first leg away from home in a knockout round of a European competition, they have always progressed without exception.
The Rouge et Blanc’s international home strength is another reason why they will make it through to the next round for the eleventh time. Monaco have not lost any of their last 13 home games in the Europa League (or its predecessor, the UEFA Cup) since October 1996 (nine wins, four draws).
Last matches played by Monaco:
Ligue 1
19/02/2023 – Brest 1 – 2 AS Monaco
Europa League Final Stage
17/02/2023 – Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 3 AS Monaco
Ligue 1
11/02/2023 – AS Monaco 3 – 1 Paris Saint-Germain
05/02/2023 – Clermont Foot 0 – 2 AS Monaco
02/02/2023 – AS Monaco 3 – 2 Auxerre
Leverkusen – Statistics & current form
Bayer Leverkusen may have lost major finals before, losing the 2002 Champions League final, but they have already secured a European title in 1988, when they won the UEFA Cup against Espanyol Barcelona.
At the moment, however, things are anything but going well for the Werkself. In the Bundesliga, the Rhinelanders, in tenth place, are far from qualifying for another international competition, while in the Champions League preliminary round they finished a disappointing third behind Porto and Brugge.
Never before turned around a home defeat in the first leg
Now the five-time Bundesliga runners-up also face elimination in the Europa League. In all eleven knockout rounds of European competitions so far in which the Werkself has lost the first leg at home, it has not been possible to avoid elimination in the second leg.
Accordingly, there is little to be said for betting on Monaco against Leverkusen that the Rhinelanders will now win at the Stade Louis II and thus at least force extra time. After all, Xabi Alonso’s men also fluffed their dress rehearsal at the weekend when they suffered another setback in the Bundesliga with a 3-2 defeat to Mainz.
Won three of last four away games
In total, Leverkusen have lost four of their last five competitive matches (one win) and conceded ten goals in that period. It will be correspondingly challenging for the defence, which was already not always stable in the first leg, to defend the offensively strong Monégasques.
However, the Rhinelanders are encouraged by their recent away record. After only one win in the first ten away games of the 2022/23 season, the Werkself have won three of their last four away games. But: In the 2022/23 Champions League preliminary round, Leverkusen only picked up one of nine possible points away from home.
Last matches played by Leverkusen:
Bundesliga
20/02/2023 – Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 3 Mainz 05
Europa League Final Stage
17/02/2023 – Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 3 AS Monaco
Bundesliga
11/02/2023 – Hoffenheim 1 – 3 Bayer Leverkusen
04/02/2023 – Augsburg 1 – 0 Bayer Leverkusen
29/01/2023 – Bayer Leverkusen 0 – 2 Borussia Dortmund
Monaco – Leverkusen Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 4 – 2 – 1
There have been a total of seven competitive matches between the two teams so far and with four wins, Monaco also lead the direct comparison very clearly. At home in the Stade Louis II, the Rouge et Blanc have remained unbeaten in three European home games against the Werkself (two wins, one draw).
Monaco – Leverkusen Tip
When it comes to Monaco against Leverkusen, the prediction goes very clearly in favour of the Monégasques progressing, who have never been eliminated before when winning the first leg away from home. Conversely, the Werkself have never been able to wipe out a home defeat in the second leg of a European knockout round in eleven attempts. The Rhinelanders have also lost four of their last five competitive games (one win), while the Rouge et Blanc are unbeaten in eleven regular-season competitive games (eight wins, three draws).
Because the team from the principality has not lost a home match in this competition since October 1996 (nine wins, four draws), we bet on the double chance 1X. Since goals are to be expected, we combine this bet with a tip on more than 1.5 goals.
