Will the Monegasques make a comeback?
Who will succeed the yellow submarine? There will certainly be no title defense in the UEFA Europa League on May 18 at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan Stadium. But it will be exciting in any case, because there are still some high-caliber teams. On Thursday evening, the quarter-finalists will be determined. In the Principality, AS Monaco and Braga will face each other starting at 18:45.
The club from the French Ligue 1 were considered relatively clear favorites on paper after all, but after the first leg the team around Bayern loanee Alexander Nübel has its back against the wall. Monaco must make up for a 2-0 deficit from the first leg. A difficult, but certainly not insurmountable task for the Monegasques. For the regular victory of Monaco against Braga, betting odds just above 1.50 are offered.
The elimination of the away goals rule certainly comes in handy for the home side, as otherwise it would have taken four Monaco goals for Braga to score. That’s no longer the case, and extra time beckons with every win by a two-goal difference.
Monaco – statistics & current form
Last season Monaco were only five points behind OSC Lille. This season, however, things are not going according to plan at all and after 28 of 38 league games, the team ranks just eighth in the table. At this point a year ago, Monaco had 14 points more to show for its efforts. As things stand, Monaco would miss out on participation in European competition next season.
Clement with mixed statistics
Belgian Philippe Clement has been in charge in the principality since the beginning of January and after just under ten weeks in office, an initial conclusion is certainly permitted. In view of an average of just 1.38 points after 13 players, the question must be allowed as to whether the change of coach was the right decision. After all, Niko Kovac had scored just under two points per game (1.95 after 74 games).
Clement’s record is completely balanced, with five wins and five defeats and three draws. There was a brief upswing, but the last few weeks have been absolutely disappointing. Four of the last five competitive games ended in defeat for AS Monaco. In total, there has only been one win from the last seven competitive matches. These are not necessarily statistics that suggest the Europa League clash between Monaco and Braga for the prediction of the home side’s quarterfinal spot after all.
Home strength gives courage
Based on the result in the first leg, it is clear that the Monegasques will have to look for salvation in the offense. A look at the statistics is certainly encouraging. In Ligue 1, Monaco has scored 26 goals in 14 home games this season, while away there have only been 14 goals in 14 games. The offense is clearly comfortable at the Stade Louis II. In addition, six of the seven home victories in 2021/22 have come by a two-goal margin.
There is also a good chance that Monaco will already be in the lead at the half-time whistle. 13 home goals have been scored in the first 45 minutes (compared with just six conceded). Accordingly, for Monaco vs Braga, betting on half-time/final score 1/1 is certainly worth a try.
Predicted lineup of Monaco:
Nübel – Caio Henrique, Matsima, Disasi, Vanderson – Tchouameni, Matazo – Martins, Volland, Jean Lucas – Ben Yedder
Last matches played by Monaco:
Ligue 1
03/13 2022 – Strasbourg 1 – 0 AS Monaco
Europa League Final Stage
03/10 2022 – Braga 2 – 0 AS Monaco
Ligue 1
03/06 2022 – Marseille 0 – 1 AS Monaco
Coupe de France
03/02 2022 – Nantes (4)2 – 2(2) AS Monaco
Ligue 1
02/27 2022 – AS Monaco 1 – 2 Reims
Braga – Statistics & current form
Behind the big three, Sporting Braga is the best team in Portuguese soccer. For the 17th time in the last 18 years, the team is represented internationally, the highlight was undoubtedly the final appearance in the 2011/12 UEFA Europa League season. Despite regular participations in Europe, this is only the third round of 16 in the Europa League. So far, Braga still has a spotless white vest, as both round of 16 duels were victorious.
Away with a weak record
The lead after the first 90 minutes seems comfortable, but Carlos Carvalhal’s team should by no means feel too secure. The team from the north of Portugal has not covered itself with glory outside its own borders in the recent past. They have lost five of their last seven away games, including a defeat at Sheriff Tiraspol in the first knockout round in 2022.
However, it is not only these figures that underline the home side’s role as favorites, but also a look at recent results in the national championship. Braga is beginning to fear for the title of “Best of the Rest” behind the two teams from Lisbon and FC Porto. In the last three league games, Braga was only able to collect two points. After two draws, Braga suffered a 1-0 defeat at home to Gil Vicente last weekend.
The recent failures and the weak international away record ensure that the bet on the regular home win is absolutely obvious for Monaco against Braga. In the To Qualify, however, Braga is considered the clear favorite (betting odds around 1.40).
Predicted lineup of Braga:
Matheus – Carmo, Vitor Tormena, Fabiano Silva – Gomes, Al Musrati, A. Horta, Couto – R. Horta, Ruiz, Medeiros
Last matches of Braga:
Liga Portugal
03/13 2022 – Braga 0 – 1 Gil Vicente
Europa League Final Stage
03/10 2022 – Braga 2 – 0 AS Monaco
Liga Portugal
03/05 2022 – Boavista 1 – 1 Braga
02/28 2022 – Braga 0 – 0 Santa Clara
Europa League Final Stage
02/24 2022 – Braga (3)2 – 0(2) FC Sheriff
Monaco – Braga Direct comparison / H2H balance
Very early and very late, the Portuguese representative struck in last Thursday’s home match. Abel Ruiz scored after just three minutes of play and wild card Vitinha stung in minute 89 to give Braga an outstanding lead. As a result, Monaco has now lost six of its ten international matches against Portuguese teams. But history doesn’t necessarily favor Braga either, as their two previous knockout duels against PSG (2008/09) and Marseille (2017/18) both ended in elimination.
Monaco – Braga Tip
The pressure on the shoulders of the Monegasques and especially head coach Philippe Clement is enormous after the recent results. However, the Portuguese do not travel to the principality with a broad chest either. The home side’s good home record and the Portuguese’s weakness away from home certainly speak in their favor. Red Star Belgrade, Midtjylland and Sheriff Tiraspol are certainly opponents with far less quality than the Monegasques.
The team from Ligue 1 has also proven several times at home Stade Louis II to press the tempo from the start. Given the starting position and Monaco’s goal distribution this season (13:6 at home in the first 45 minutes), predicting HT/FT 1/1 is certainly a good option in the second leg between Monaco and Braga.
