Can Molde still turn the result around?

In the second legs of the qualifying phase for the UEFA Champions League, a thrilling duel between two Northern European teams is now on the agenda. Molde will take on HJK from Helsinki and the first leg was a bit of a surprise.

Because the guests were able to get a win there. The Molde vs. HJK forecast of the bookmakers now clearly shows that the Norwegians have everything in their own hands before the second leg and are the favourites. But the superiority must also be played out on the pitch, otherwise the advantage on paper will not help much.

The visitors will try to defend their advantage with all their might. That won’t be easy, because HJK don’t always have the best record away from home and sometimes look harmless. Therefore, our Molde vs. HJK tip is that not both teams will score.

Molde – Statistics & current form

Molde FK is a traditional club from Norway that has featured more often in international football in recent years. Erling Moe’s team has always played a very interesting, attacking football. However, this did not work in the first leg, as Molde lost narrowly 1-0 in Helsinki, but the dress rehearsal for the return match went well, with a 1-0 win at Stabaek in the league.

The hosts have one or two exciting players in their ranks, the showpiece being the midfield around Breivik, Grodem and Eriksen. But also striker Brynhildsen, who has already scored seven goals in the league and is thus his team’s top scorer. The team has won five of the last six competitive matches, so the form curve per se looks quite good. And individually, the home side is clearly in a better position for this second leg.

That is why the Molde vs. HJK betting odds show a clear advantage for the hosts, a win seems very likely. The problem is, however, that after the first leg, a win with a one-goal difference is not enough. Molde must therefore have a good day and bring their own normal form onto the pitch. That means being dangerous offensively and having good protection at the same time.

Molde: Home record fits

The fact that Molde have done very well at home so far in the new season definitely speaks in their favour. The team has played eight home games in the Norwegian Eliteserien so far, winning six and losing only one. Seven goals conceded and a strong 22 goals also speak for a good balance. In addition, it must be considered that HJK as an opponent has less to offer individually than many opponents in Norway.

In five of the last seven league games, they have also managed to keep a clean sheet defensively. So there is a lot to be said for Molde being able to exert pressure from the start, because the defence is seen as a backstop. That would be very important to exert permanent pressure, because even resting on a 2-0 lead would be risky. Due to the omens, our prediction before the game Molde against HJK is therefore that not both teams will score.

HJK – Statistics & current form

HJK from Helsinki is more or less the showpiece team from Finland. The guests were able to surprise extremely in the first leg and celebrate a 1-0 victory. The team, which is very experienced for a Scandinavian team, defended cleverly, but was also lucky to be relatively efficient offensively. HJK is coached by Toni Korkeakunnas, and at the weekend they won at league leader Seinäjoki, which certainly boosted their self-confidence.

Overall, however, the performances of the Finnish champions of 2022 in the league are not quite outstanding. HJK are in third place, although the gap to the top is very small. Nevertheless, there have already been two defeats and an impressive seven draws in the current season. Away from home, in particular, there is a bit of a bug in it, as only three of nine games have been won here.

In addition, HJK have looked more harmless away from home than at home so far this season and have conceded significantly more. This also explains why the Molde vs. HJK odds suggest that the Norwegians would be quite confident of a big win. The bookmakers assume that the favoured team will also advance to the next round.

HJK need to have the ideal day

So, to have a chance of advancing to the 3rd round, the guest from Finland will have to more than just play at their limit, but possibly exceed it. A goal of their own would be important, because then HJK with a decent defence would have a good chance to at least reach extra time. The trend is also slightly upwards, the Finns did not lose five times in a row last time.

But: In only three of the last eight games the defence was completely tight. Now they face a very dangerous opponent who has a lot of potential in the forward play and already had some chances in the first leg. The starting position for the Finns does not read well, and the hosts can also add a lot more quality from the bench.

Molde – HJK Direct comparison / H2H balance

The first leg in the Finnish capital was the first direct duel between the two teams. Therefore, HJK leads the direct comparison by a narrow margin

Molde – HJK Tip

Molde have everything in their own hands, but also lost the first leg 0:1. The Norwegians need to have a good day, then the quality in the squad is enough to create enough chances for an emphatic victory. The home side are strong at home, HJK don’t rarely slip up away.

Therefore, the roles are clearly distributed. Molde will try to be defensively stable and to develop offensively. Therefore, before the game Molde against HJK our tip is also that not both score.