The giant duel in English football

This weekend, the 31st matchday is on the agenda in the motherland of football. The question of the “Match of the Week” does not arise when looking at the ten pairings, after all, it comes to the summit clash between Manchester City and Liverpool on Sunday afternoon from 17:30. A top match that could bring a preliminary decision in the fight for the title.

The two teams are separated by just one point ahead of the head-to-head clash at the Etihad Stadium. Can City keep the Reds at bay? Or will Jürgen Klopp be laughing from the top of the table for the first time since 1 October 2021? The prerequisite for this is an away win for Klopp’s charges. The bookmakers are offering odds of up to 3.50 for this prediction in the top match between Manchester City and Liverpool.

Accordingly, Guardiola’s eleven are seen as relatively clear favourites, which is quite understandable given the available statistics and recent duels. But Liverpool are in enviable form, going from success to success. Two teams at world class level, for any football fan this match should be a must-watch on Sunday.

Manchester City – Statistics & current form

In the first April highlight, Pep Guardiola was once again able to rely on his superstar Kevin de Bruyne. In the first leg of the Champions League quarter-final, a lot of patience was needed to break down the Rojiblancos’ extremely unconventional 5-5-0 system. In minute 70 the spell was broken and City fixed a narrow 1-0 victory. This has opened the door to the semi-finals, but the second leg next week will be another tour de force.

Foden the Reds specialist

The first task, however, is to maintain the lead in the standings, and here hopes rest in particular on homegrown player Phil Foden. The 21-year-old has become a true Liverpool specialist, scoring in each of the last three games against the Reds. Should he achieve the same feat on Sunday afternoon, he would become only the fourth player in PL history to score four times in a row against Liverpool. So far, only Jamie Vardy has done so (five times between 2016 and 2017).

Sunday’s summit clash between the two current leaders will be the 50th in the Premier League. So far, the current league leaders are narrowly ahead with 20 wins compared to 18 defeats.

24 points in nine home games

Although Jürgen Klopp is the coach against whom Pep Guardiola has suffered the most defeats in the competition (eight), the Citizens’ role as favourites on Sunday is to some extent justified. Apart from the direct comparison, it is worth mentioning the outstanding City defence, which has conceded only 18 goals this season. In addition, the Skyblues have celebrated a full success in eight of their last nine league home games. The only exception was the narrow 3-2 defeat against Tottenham Hotspurs.

A small tendency towards the Citizens is therefore understandable, but it is hardly as clear-cut as the current betting odds suggest. For Manchester City against Liverpool, a prediction on the home side has no value to offer.

Predicted Manchester City line-up:
Ederson – Cancelo, Stones, Laporte, Ake – de Bruyne, Rodri, Gündogan – Foden, Bernardo Silva, Sterling

Last matches played by Manchester City:

Champions League Final
04/05 2022 – Manchester City 1 – 0 Atletico Madrid

Premier League
04/02 2022 – Burnley 0 – 2 Manchester City

FA Cup
03/20 2022 – Southampton 1 – 4 Manchester City

Premier League
03/14 2022 – Crystal Palace 0 – 0 Manchester City

Champions League Final
03/09 2022 – Manchester City 0 – 0 Sporting CP

Liverpool – Statistics & current form

Manchester City have collected 23 points out of a possible 30 from their last ten league games. A quite strong statistic, but this allowed Liverpool to fight their way back into the title race. The Reds have been in impressive form for weeks and have won all of their last ten league games. This is the fifth time in PL history that Liverpool are looking at a run of at least ten wins in a row.

Outstanding defence

Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane, Roberto Firmino and Diogo Jota are often mentioned, but the convincing defence must not go unmentioned. During the aforementioned run of ten wins in a row, Liverpool kept zero eight times. Goalkeeper Alisson Becker conceded his last goal against Norwich City on 19 February. Since ex-Bremer Milot Rashica scored, Liverpool have gone 582 league minutes without conceding a goal.

Liverpool have conceded 20 goals so far this season, putting them on a similarly strong level to the Citizens. The importance of Virgil van Dijk is impressive. After missing much of last year’s season, stability was lost. Now he is back and provides many “to nil”. Last year, Liverpool had to concede 36 goals after 30 league games.

So it is not only the two best offensive lines that face each other on Sunday, but also the best defensive lines. While both teams have the quality to score out of nothing, the huge importance of this summit clash means we can expect a game where the defensive lines will be more in focus. Therefore, between Manchester City and Liverpool, the odds for an Under 2.5 do seem relatively high.

Predicted line-up of Liverpool:
Alisson – Robertson, van Dijk, Matip, Alexander-Arnold – Thiago, Fabinho, Keita – Luis Diaz, Mane, Salah

Last matches played by Liverpool:

Champions League Final
04/05 2022 – Benfica 1 – 3 Liverpool FC

Premier League
04/02 2022 – Liverpool FC 2 – 0 Watford

FA Cup
03/20 2022 – Nottingham Forest 0 – 1 Liverpool FC

Premier League
03/16 2022 – Arsenal FC 0 – 2 Liverpool FC

03/12 2022 – Brighton 0 – 2 Liverpool FC

Manchester City – Liverpool Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

Guardiola’s charges can rely on home strength, having lost just one of their last 12 Premier League home games against the Reds (seven wins, four draws). In their first appearance at the Etihad Stadium, “Kloppo” celebrated a brilliant 4:1 victory over the Skyblues, but has since remained without a full success. Other statistics in the champions’ favour – Liverpool have not won any of their last four league games against the Citizens (two draws and two defeats) and last kept a clean sheet at the Etihad in February 2010. At least one goal conceded seems guaranteed.

Manchester City – Liverpool Tip

One highlight follows the next for the two top teams in English football. In addition to the Champions League quarter-finals, the direct duel for the championship, there is also this summit meeting in the FA Cup next weekend. Intense days in which every mistake can be punished. There are plenty of arguments for both the home side and the visitors, so it is not advisable to predict the winner of Manchester City v Liverpool – at least in view of the regular betting odds.

It would not be surprising if the title question is not settled in a direct duel and the two great powers will share the points fraternally. There is of course a certain risk involved in the X-bet. A risky bet, but a much better chance of success than the betting odds suggest, is to bet on the under 2.5 for Manchester City against Liverpool. Offence wins games, but defence wins titles – and on Sunday it’s all about winning the title. Accordingly, defence will be important and three goals are not necessarily to be expected. A 2.20 for the Under 2.5 is extremely tempting here.