Will Brighton’s third surprise strike follow?
The championship race in England promises to get even more dramatic in the coming weeks. After the points were shared in the top match between the Citizens and the Reds, Manchester City’s lead over Klopp’s team in the standings remains just one point. During the week, the duel will now go into the next round. Coach Pep Guardiola’s charges will have a doable task in front of them.
On Wednesday night, the Champions League semi-finalists will take on the Seagulls in front of their home crowd at the Etihad Stadium. It was to be expected that the odds would be heavily in favour of the title contenders ahead of the Manchester City v Brighton clash, with the Sky Blues having never lost a league home game to their upcoming opponents in their club’s history.
Caution should nevertheless be exercised from the point of view of the league leaders, as the visitors have recently turned out to be a real terror for the favourites. Arsenal and Tottenham, two CL aspirants in the league, were defeated in succession. Seven points from their last three encounters have given the Potter team a lot of confidence, so we should definitely look at other arguments before the clash between Manchester City and Brighton in terms of predicting the outcome of the game.
Manchester City – Statistics & current form
For many months, Erling Haaland was the transfer hot topic in top international football. Since Tuesday, however, some media reports indicate that the Norwegian has reached an agreement with Manchester City. Accordingly, Haaland will wear the Sky Blues’ jersey from the summer onwards and possibly move to the then reigning Premier League champions and Champions League winners. In both competitions, Guardiola’s team has promising chances of winning the title.
Meanwhile, the dream of the treble was shattered last weekend when they lost 3-2 to Liverpool at Wembley Stadium, conceding all three goals in the first half. Only one week after the 2:2 in the Premier League, they again failed to win against their direct rivals for the championship. But it is also a fact that the Citizens, unlike the Reds, have the title defence in their own hands. Seven wins in the remaining seven games would be enough for the Himmelblauen to be crowned English champions once more.
City with sensational Wednesday record
A first step on the road to a perfect rest of the season should be taken in front of a home crowd on Wednesday night. If we look at the bookmakers’ odds before the Manchester City vs Brighton clash, anything other than a home win would be a big surprise. This view is further reinforced by the fact that the Citizens have won all of their last 18 (!) Premier League games played on Wednesdays.
Apart from that, City are the second best home team in the league with eleven wins from 15 home games (two draws, two defeats), have scored the most goals at home (42) and have also lost only one of the past 21 league games. 17 wins in that period underline the incredible consistency shown by de Bruyne and co. Combined with the very good record against the Seagulls, it would not be very smart to bet against the hosts before the Manchester City vs Brighton match.
Compared to Saturday’s aforementioned 3-2 defeat to Liverpool at Wembley, Pep Guardiola is sure to make some changes. Keeper Ederson is likely to return to the starting eleven as well as Ruben Dias or Aymeric Laporte. Only Kyle Walker is not yet an option for a start. It remains to be seen whether the stricken Kevin de Bruyne will reach 100% in time to help his team from minute one.
Predicted Manchester City line-up:
Ederson; Cancelo, Dias, Laporte, Zinchenko; Gundogan, Rodri, De Bruyne; Mahrez, Silva, Sterling
Last matches played by Manchester City:
FA Cup
16/04/2022 – Manchester City 2 – 3 Liverpool FC
Champions League Final
14/04/2022 – Atletico Madrid 0 – 0 Manchester City
Premier League
10/04/2022 – Manchester City 2 – 2 Liverpool FC
Champions League Final
06/04/2022 – Manchester City 1 – 0 Atletico Madrid
Premier League
02/04/2022 – Burnley 0 – 2 Manchester City
Brighton – Statistics & current form
Brighton Hove & Albion are playing an extremely satisfactory season so far. Especially the only ten defeats conceded are a clear indication that the Seagulls are an extremely uncomfortable opponent. By comparison, even CL aspirants Tottenham have lost eleven times in 2021/22. Arsenal and West Ham, who are also aiming for a European Cup place in the final standings, have also suffered more defeats. On the other hand, Brighton have already shared the points 13 times (!) – the highest number in the Premier League.
In tenth place, the Blue and Whites are in the grey midfield of the table. The fact that coach Graham Potter’s team did not go even higher was due to inexplicable periods of weakness, such as between mid-February and mid-March. The Seagulls lost six successive league games and even failed to score in five of the six matches mentioned.
Wednesday matches are very unpopular with the Seagulls
It was all the more surprising that the kickers from the holiday resort in the south of the country were able to trip up Tottenham (1-0) and Arsenal (2-1) on away soil in succession last time out. However, the club has not managed three Premier League wins in a row since 2018.
Should they end that drought at the Etihad Stadium, the Seagulls could even set another impressive record. Brighton could become only the third team ever to win away from home in consecutive seasons at the defending champions. In 2020/21 it was Liverpool, and in 2021/22 the Potter team will be looking to take three points at Manchester City.
The bottom line, however, is that a prediction on the underdog before the unequal clash between Manchester City and Brighton is a very big gamble. After all, the southerners have won only one of their last 16 first league games on Wednesday. Of all the teams that have played at least ten Premier League games on Wednesdays, only Watford and Portsmouth have a lower winning percentage on that day of the week.
Predicted Brighton line-up:
Sanchez; Veltman, Dunk, Cucurella; Lamptey, Caicedo, Bissouma, Gross, Trossard; Mwepu; Mac Allister
Last Brighton games:
Premier League
16/04/2022 – Tottenham 0 – 1 Brighton
09/04/2022 – Arsenal FC 1 – 2 Brighton
02/04/2022 – Brighton 0 – 0 Norwich
17/03/2022 – Brighton 0 – 2 Tottenham
12/03/2022 – Brighton 0 – 2 Liverpool FC
Manchester City – Brighton Direct Comparison / H2H Record
17 duels have been played between the clubs in the Premier League so far. Twelve times Man City left the pitch as winners. Brighton have only managed to surprise in the form of a treble on three occasions. However, the Citizens have won eight of the last nine encounters in the Premier League. All eight victories also came by at least a two-goal margin.
Guardiola’s side have also won six of their last eight home Premier League games against the Seagulls (two draws), the last three of them without conceding a goal. It is therefore also conceivable to place bets on a handicap win for the home side or a “to-nil” victory for the favourites.
In the first leg, the star ensemble from the industrial city won 4:1. Foden bagged a brace and has been involved in five goals in his three recent starting appearances against Brighton.
Manchester City – Brighton Tip
In the long-distance duel for the English championship, Liverpool probably have the tougher task to solve during the week. The Reds already have to deal with Manchester United at home on Tuesday evening. One day later, Manchester City have to face Brighton. Betting odds of no more than 1.22 on a home win underline the clear role of the current Premier League leaders and defending champions as favourites.
Although virtually all statistics point to a win for the Citizens, the guests from the seaside resort in the south of the country should not be underestimated. Whoever wins at Tottenham and Arsenal in succession will also travel to the Etihad Stadium with a broad chest. However, the fact that only one of Wednesday’s 16 PL games has been won leaves City fans hoping for a quiet evening.
We too think the Sky Blues will do their homework and record a commanding home win. However, in order not to neglect the defensive strength of the visitors in our considerations, who have only conceded more than two goals in a match on two occasions this season, we have decided to offer a combined tip on the home win + a maximum of three goals in the course of the match between Manchester City and Brighton.
