Will there be a mega-sensation at Kenilworth Road?
Luton Town definitely can’t complain about an undemanding program these days. After last Wednesday’s league game against Liverpool Football Club, the sensational promotion contenders face Manchester City in the FA Cup on Tuesday evening, before the Edwards side take on Aston Villa at the weekend. Nevertheless, the Hatters have no intention of hiding. With a lot of courage, the courage to take risks and a pronounced dose of fearlessness, the sensation in the oldest cup competition in the world should succeed
Admittedly, there is nothing statistically to suggest that the orange and dark blue team will eliminate the reigning champions and Champions League triumphants. However, it could possibly be a closer game than expected, as the last league match between these teams only ended in a narrow 2:1 victory for coach Pep Guardiola’s Sky Blues.
What’s more, the Citizens have recently seen an increase in work-rate victories. In view of the clear favorites at Kenilworth Road, an away win with a difference of at least two goals between Luton and Manchester City is still considered more likely
In the following paragraphs, you can read which factors the Luton vs Manchester City prediction ultimately depends on and how the personnel situation for both teams is shaping up.
Luton – Statistics & current form
Few experts would have expected Luton Town to be the strongest of the three promoted teams in the summer. While Sheffield United and Burnley are already a long way down the table with just 13 points each, the Hatters’ dream of staying up is still alive. They are just one point behind the drop zone. If the underdogs win the upcoming catch-up game, they will temporarily jump back above the ominous line
Luton are increasingly paying the price with their new style of play
In recent weeks, the approach of coach Rob Edwards and his team has turned 180 degrees. While the hatters, who were inferior in terms of quality in most cases, initially tried to be pragmatic, the popular coach now lets his men completely off the leash. They press early, defend high and shoot from all angles regardless of losses. From time to time, this approach surprises the opposition so much that they can no longer defend or can defend too late. Recently, however, this risky style of play has been accompanied by huge defensive weaknesses and poor results.
The promoted side lost three in a row against Sheffield United, Manchester United and Liverpool, conceding a total of nine goals in the process. Looking back over the last four games, they have conceded a whopping 13 goals, i.e. more than three per match. If the Hatters do not change their bold footballing approach on Tuesday evening, the next (heavy) defeat is imminent, as the controlled Citizens are probably better placed than any other team to break down a high defensive line with clever (packing) passes.
However, Edwards’ team will once again be hoping to get off to a good start in the match. In the Premier League, for example, the orange and dark blue team led at half-time against Newcastle, Man City, Liverpool and Brighton. It didn’t help in three out of four cases. The dress rehearsal against LFC a week ago also went down to a 4-1 defeat after leading 1-0 at the break. We assume that Pep’s team will be able to exploit the home side’s weaknesses early on Tuesday and are therefore predicting that the heavy favorites will score at least once in both halves between Luton and Manchester City.
Predicted line-up for Luton:
No information available
Manchester City – stats & current form
Last season, the Citizens – led by Erling Haaland – provided plenty of spectacle and goal festivals. The Norwegian scored at will and the other City players also exuded an outstanding attacking drive that could hardly be slowed down at both national and international level.
In the current season, things are going a little slower. The former BVB striker has been forced to take time out due to injury from time to time, has not yet rediscovered the flow of the previous year and has recently even made several appearances as a chance killer. In general, it currently seems as if coach Pep Guardiola’s team has developed an affinity for celebrating work victories. Most recently, for example, there were two consecutive 1:0 victories against Brentford and Bournemouth
Manchester City want to leave no room for doubt
While the offense is not showing the punch of the 2022/23 title season, the defense is on the mend. While deficiencies were also evident in the game against the ball at times, the defensive score was zero in three of the last four PL matches. Cup keeper Stefano Ortega has also kept a clean sheet in the two FA Cup matches against Huddersfield (5-0) and Tottenham (1-0). If you want to bet on another City victory including a clean sheet on Tuesday, you can get odds of over 2.00 for the Luton vs.
The fact that Pep Guardiola attaches great importance to winning the FA Cup title and of course already has in mind that the next two games against Manchester United and FC Copenhagen could sometimes point the way forward became clear when looking at the starting eleven from the weekend. De Bruyne, Doku, Alvarez and Walker were all on the bench against Bournemouth, but could now return to the starting eleven. The Sky Blues will definitely not be short of quality. If the favorites find the necessary seriousness and get off to a good start, we believe the current Premier League runners-up could even win on handicap.
Predicted Manchester City line-up:
No information available
Luton – Manchester City head-to-head / H2H record
Against the background that all other meetings are over 30 years in the past, we refer in the head-to-head exclusively to the Premier League first leg of the current season, which the Citizens won 2-1 at Kenilworth Road after initial difficulties. Adebayo put the underdogs ahead shortly before the break, before Bernardo Silva and Jack Grealish turned the game around within three minutes (62nd + 65th). In the end, it remained 2:1 for the reigning champions, who could have scored a few more goals.
Luton – Manchester City tip
The contrasts in an FA Cup match between two league rivals couldn’t be much starker. On the one hand, the Hatters from Luton want to cause a mega-sensation and knock out the reigning champions. On the other hand, the Citizens need to find the right balance between confidence and pressure management. Although the idea of priority could certainly play an important role in this match, it can be assumed that the Citizens will live up to their role as favorites.
This is also reflected in the betting odds on the three-way market between Luton and Manchester City, which give a clear direction. Betano is offering just 1.34 for an away win after regular time. It would make much more sense to use the Betano free bet for higher odds. For example, for an away win including goals for both teams. Offensively, the hatters have rarely come away empty-handed recently
We see more appealing value in the Luton vs. Manchester City duel, however, in the bet that Pep’s team will win this match with at least a two-goal difference. The host team’s bold approach will be a real problem for the high-quality City team. Even if the game were close, the Sky Blues would still have the chance to increase the score towards the end. We therefore play the 1.90 for the handicap success (-1) of the favorite with seven units
