Will the Simeone eleven bite their teeth out in Galicia?
The new year 2024 could not have got off to a worse start for Atletico Madrid. Coach Diego Simeone’s side lost the top La Liga match at Girona on Wednesday evening and lost touch with the top flight as a result. With the train towards the 2023/24 Spanish championship currently ten points behind them and the “Colchoneros” not among the top favourites to win the Champions League either, the Copa del Rey may be the only realistic opportunity to win silverware for the club’s showcase
The first hurdle on the way to the final will be a third division match at the weekend. Between Lugo and Atletico Madrid, the betting odds confirm exactly what everyone is thinking. Of course, the CL round of 16 finalists are the heavy favorites, especially as the hosts from the northwest of Spain are currently not even among the top teams in the Primera RFEF Grupo I. However, the 1.24 for Atletico to win after regular time does not necessarily bring value, so we have to be a little more creative in our betting selection
The fact is that this match comes at a rather unfavorable time for the third-placed team in La Liga. The “Rojiblancos” are already back in action next Wednesday in the Spanish Super Cup against arch-rivals Real Madrid. As it can be assumed that this prestigious encounter will be of greater importance in the minds of Griezmann and Co, we would not be surprised if coach Simeone rotates his squad in pronounced style. With that in mind, we are distancing ourselves early in the Lugo v Atletico Madrid clash from predicting a resounding victory or an offensive festival with plenty of goals on both sides
Lugo – statistics & current form
The club Deportivo Lugo is probably only known to insiders of Spanish club soccer. To date, the club from the autonomous region of Galicia has never been allowed to compete in the league against the best teams in the country. The second division was the highest of the highs. However, after being relegated from the aforementioned Segunda Division last season without much ado, when they were 19 (!) points adrift of the drop zone after 42 match days, the Red & Whites are now back in the third-highest division.
Even there, however, Lugo are currently lagging behind their own standards. Eighth place in the interim rankings is definitely not what was expected of a relegated team in the run-up to this season. The output of the offense is proving to be particularly problematic and worrying. After 18 matches, they have scored just 15 meagre goals. No other team in the top half of the table has scored less than coach Paulo Alves’ side
CD Lugo exemplify staid pragmatism
The 54-year-old Portuguese, who is working in Spain for the first time in his long career, has only been in charge since December 23, but was unable to bring about the desired turnaround on his debut on Tuesday evening. The 1-0 defeat at home to Celta Vigo’s second team was the third league game in a row that they have failed to win. Looking back over the past eight games at league level, only two wins have been achieved. The last time the CD offense scored more than one goal in the league was at the end of October.
At least the defense is usually convincing. 18 goals conceded is a reasonable figure, especially as only two clubs have been able to score twice or more against the Red & Whites over the course of the entire season. In none of the 18 league games did they break the over 3.5 barrier, and in twelve cases the under 2.5 barrier would have been reached. Since the very defensive approach will logically not change against the CL round of 16 finalists and the Galicians will rely on a staggered, deep defensive formation, the odds on few goals after 90 minutes also play a major role for us between Lugo and Atletico Madrid.
Lugo line-up prediction:
No information available
Atletico Madrid – stats & current form
The Copa del Rey has not necessarily been one of Atletico Madrid’s favorite competitions in recent years. The last time the “Colchoneros” lifted the trophy was over ten years ago. In ten consecutive attempts, the Madrid side never even made it to the final. The Red & Whites even failed several times against lower-ranked opponents. Leonesa in the third round in 2019/20 and Cornellá in the second round a year later. The Simeone team is therefore not completely unencumbered in the Spanish Copa del Rey.
Nevertheless, it would of course be presumptuous to claim that the fans will have to seriously worry about progressing on Saturday. The bookmakers are also very sure that the odds on the visitors winning after 90 minutes in the knockout duel between Lugo and Atletico Madrid will be crowned with success
Atletico will have to be patient
However, it will be interesting to see how Simeone’s team copes with Wednesday’s bitter last-minute defeat in Girona (3-4). Despite three goals from Alvaro Morata, the third-placed team in La Liga ended up with no points and also revealed unexpected defensive weaknesses. Of the top seven in the Spanish top flight, only the surprise team from Catalonia has conceded more goals than Atletí.
Although Madrid’s style of play has changed somewhat this season and the Griezmann/Morata duo in particular are synonymous with unconditional attacking power, we tend to expect a low-scoring game in the Copa del Rey match. On the one hand, coach Simeone will no doubt make changes to the starting line-up in view of the upcoming Super Cup match against city rivals Real.
On the other hand, the Red & Whites will have to find solutions against an extremely deep defending, multi-legged and probably destructive opponent away from home on Saturday. In our opinion, it cannot be ruled out that an improved B-team of the mattress makers will need patience to break through the bulwark. Particularly risk-averse bettors can therefore consider predicting a goalless first half for the favorites in the unequal cup match between Lugo and Atletico Madrid.
Predicted Atletico Madrid line-up:
No information available
Lugo – Atletico Madrid head-to-head comparison / H2H record
The direct comparison is quickly dealt with. In fact, the clubs will face each other for the first time in a competitive match on Saturday. At least Lugo have four previous meetings against the Rojiblancos’ reserve team. Almost 15 years ago, the Galicians celebrated three wins and one draw. Of course, these numbers have no bearing on this weekend’s cup tie
Lugo – Atletico Madrid tip
For some it’s the highlight of the club’s recent history, for others it’s a chore against a lower-ranked team. The third round of the Spanish Copa del Rey on Saturday afternoon is a typical David vs Goliath constellation. On the one side, the hosts, who have just been relegated from the second to the third division, and are the crass underdogs. On the other, the Champions League round of 16 finalists, for whom the Copa del Rey may be their only chance of winning a relevant title this season
Between Lugo and Atletico Madrid, the oddsmakers’ predictions logically lean towards the favorites, who are clearly better equipped in all positions. Nevertheless, it does not seem out of the question that Simeone’s team may find it a little more difficult than expected against a very defensive opponent. Especially as the tight fixture list means that one or two key players are likely to get a break
We therefore prefer to bet on the X2 & Under 3.5 between Lugo and Atletico Madrid and are not taking any unnecessary risks with this recommendation. The odds of 1.62 are still relatively interesting and can be played at Betano, for example
