Do the Bulls book their place in the last 16?
Austrian sector leaders Red Bull Salzburg missed their first match point on the fourth Champions League matchday. However, the chances of qualifying for the last 16 for the first time are still excellent. The second opportunity to secure the knockout phase comes on Tuesday evening in the clash between Lille and Red Bull Salzburg
The French champions are still struggling with some problems this season, but managed to keep their own Round of 16 chances alive with a surprising away win against Sevilla at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan Stadium. Lille are currently second in Group G and would move past the Austrian bulls with a home win. Bookmakers are expecting a fairly even match, with Lille vs Red Bull Salzburg offering almost identical betting odds on each winning the game.
For Lille, the home match against the Bulls will be the 43rd CL match in the club’s history, and if they manage to win, the Gourvennec eleven would win two matches in a row in the top flight for the first time. The match kicks off at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy on Tuesday at 9pm.
Lille – Statistics & current form
While there was no real sell-out at the sensational French champions, OSC Lille are a shadow of last season this term. Under neo-coach Jocelyn Gourvennec, Lille are currently only in mid-table in the French Ligue 1.
Defence is a big worry
A repeat of the championship was utopian anyway, but 20 points behind after 14 matchdays is a bitter disappointment. Not only the gap to the league leader, but also to the international starting positions is already considerable. The defence in particular is currently causing LOSC fans great concern. Lille have already conceded 21 goals this season, compared to only ten last year after 14 matchdays.
In the dress rehearsal for the Salzburg game, the lack of stability in the defence was once again evident. In the top match, although both teams are only ranked in midfield, against AS Monaco, Lille squandered a three-goal win in the final phase when they were outplayed. Thanks to a Jonathan David brace, Lille were 2-0 up after just nine minutes (his ninth and tenth goals of the season), but were unable to hold on to their lead. At the time of the 2:2 equaliser, Monaco were only ten on the pitch. Lille thus remained without a league win for the fifth time in a row.
No CL home win for quite a few years
In principle, a home game should be an advantage, but this is by no means the case for OSC Lille in the top flight. In 2011/12, 2012/13 and also in 2019/20, the French failed to win a single home game in the group stage. A scenario that could happen again on Tuesday evening, as the first two games at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy this CL season ended in a draw. So far, there has not been a single goal scored, both the game against Wolfsburg and the one against Sevilla ended goalless.
Nevertheless, a prediction of a game with many goals seems to be the better choice on Tuesday between Lille and Red Bull Salzburg. As in the first leg, the Bulls will be able to put the Lille defence under pressure with the high tempo of their attack. Goal chances should definitely arise on Salzburg’s side as a result. Thanks to David’s top form, however, Lille are also always good for a goal.
Projected Lille line-up:
Grbic – Bradaric, Djalo, Fonte, Celik – Weah, Andre, Xeka, Ikone – David, Yazici
Last matches played by Lille:
Ligue 1
11/19 2021 – AS Monaco 2 – 2 Lille
11/06 2021 – Lille 1 – 1 Angers
Champions League Grp. G
11/02 2021 – Sevilla 1 – 2 Lille
Ligue 1
10/29 2021 – Paris Saint-Germain 2 – 1 Lille
10/23 2021 – Lille 1 – 1 Brest
Austria Red Bull Salzburg – Statistics & current form
A proud Salzburg series snapped last Saturday. In the home match against Admira, Matthias Jaissle did not take the CL match on Tuesday into consideration and fielded his best possible formation. However, it was of no use, because for the first time in 43 competitive games in Wals-Siezenheim, Salzburg remained without a goal. In some situations, the Bullen were unusually imprecise, and Salzburg also found their master in Andreas Leitner on several occasions.
Average of 3.80 goals in the last twelve away matches
The game against the Herzog eleven may well serve as a kind of wake-up call to counteract the sluggishness a little. Without the highest possible concentration, they make life difficult for themselves through imprecise play. In France, a different Bullen team is expected to fix the big dream. However, a look at the Bulls’ international away record is not particularly motivating.
Salzburg have only won two of their last twelve games (excluding qualifying). What is striking, however, is the large number of goals scored, as there were no less than 46 goals (19:27) in these twelve games. On average, this results in an impressive 3.80 goals per game. Accordingly, a bet on the over 3.5 is highly lucrative for Lille vs. Salzburg, as betting odds of up to 3.00 are offered here.
Greatest success since RB entry in sight
Even if the match in France did not end as desired, Salzburg would still have progress in their own hands. But then no spectators would be allowed into the stadium in the decisive match because of the current situation in Austria. The ghost game will by no means be an advantage, so the Jaissle team hopes to clear the decks on Tuesday.
For Salzburg, a place in the last 16 of the top flight would be the greatest success since Didi Mateschitz came on board. The very young team (six teenagers have played in the CL so far, the average age of the starting line-up is about 23 years) is playing with enormous speed. Against the weakening Lille defence, this speed is certainly a big advantage and should be a great opportunity for the Bullen. Form advantages can certainly be discerned on Salzburg’s side despite the goalless Admira draw, and the confidence is clear to see after an 18-4-1 record this year.
Predicted line-up of Red Bull Salzburg:
Köhn – Ulmer, Onguene, Wöber, Kristensen – Seiwald, Camara, Sucic – Aaronson – Adeyemi, Okafor
Last matches played by Red Bull Salzburg:
Bundesliga
11/20 2021 – Salzburg 0 – 0 Admira Mödling
11/06 2021 – Austria Wien 0 – 1 Salzburg
Champions League Grp. G
11/02 2021 – Vfl Wolfsburg 2 – 1 Salzburg
Bundesliga
10/30 2021 – Ried 2 – 2 Salzburg
Cup
10/27 2021 – SKN St. Pölten 0 – 3 Salzburg
Lille – Red Bull Salzburg Direct comparison / H2H-balance
The young German international Karim Adeyemi was the match-winner in the first leg of the current group stage – also the first meeting between the two teams. He twice held his nerve from the penalty spot to beat Croatia’s Ivo Grbic. The French champions were only able to reduce the deficit through a Yilmaz free-kick, but in the end they deserved to be beaten 2-1.
Lille – Red Bull SalzburgTipp
Second match point for the Austrian champions from the city of Mozart. With a win, Salzburg would already be in the round of 16 after five matchdays and, in contrast to the last two years, avoid a final on matchday six, which was lost in each case. According to the current odds, an even match is expected between Lille and Red Bull Salzburg. In fact, in the three-way market, a prediction seems a difficult undertaking.
There is definitely a certain draw risk with Lille, so the outright away win is not advised. A good option, however, is the draw-no-bet market in favour of the visitors, because the form advantages are definitely on the side of the bulls. The enormous pace in the offensive game is another big plus point for the Bulls. This should normally result in many scoring chances, and coupled with the high-scoring away games of the Bulls, the tip for Lille against Red Bull Salzburg is over 3.5 value. A moderate four-unit stake is recommended for this bet
