Can Leicester City stay in the Premier League after all?

On the 38th matchday of the Premier League, Leicester City welcome the team from West Ham United. For the Foxes, it is all or nothing in this duel, because only a victory could still realise the relegation. However, Dean Smith’s team will need the support of AFC Bournemouth, who visit Everton FC on the last matchday.

For the visitors from London, this match is only about the final position in the Premier League, because the Hammers could only finish the season in twelfth to fifteenth place. Due to the starting position between Leicester and West Ham, the bookmakers’ betting odds also tend to point towards a home win.

Leicester need the support of their own fans on the last matchday of this season, because otherwise the 2016 champions will go back to the second English league. However, the home record does not inspire much encouragement, with the Foxes taking just 16 points from 18 games at the King Power Stadium. This puts the hosts in penultimate place in the home table.

With only one win from the past 15 competitive matches, the home side’s form also points to relegation. Their only win in this period came at home against Wolverhampton Wanderers on matchday 32. A similar result in the upcoming match would probably be signed by Dean Smith’s team immediately.

West Ham almost come as a surprise, as the Hammers have only taken twelve points from 18 games away from home and have already lost twelve away games. The visitors are 17th in the away table and give Leicester City supporters hope, especially as there is not much at stake for the visiting team. For this reason, the odds are also against an away win between Leicester and West Ham.

However, with four wins from their last five competitive games, David Moyes’ side are on an upward trajectory. In addition to the treble against Leeds United and Manchester United, the Hammers also qualified for the final of the UEFA Conference League.

We recommend a home win for the home side between Leicester and West Ham. The hosts have their backs against the wall and must give everything in this game. However, with their own fans behind them, a win against the Hammers should be within the realms of possibility. In the first half of the season, the Foxes won in London and should therefore go into this game with courage. With nothing left to play for West Ham, the odds on a win for the home team seem quite interesting.

Leicester – Statistics & current form

Leicester City are in 18th place in the English top flight just before the end of the season and thus have to fear for staying in the league. Dean Smith’s team have only 31 points from 37 games and are two points off the top. Conversely, a draw or defeat against West Ham would have relegated the Foxes. And even a win would not mean automatic relegation, because a win for Everton would not change anything in the table. The Blue and Whites are therefore reliant on shooting assistance.

The offensive is the beacon of hope

Compared to the current table situation, the offensive performance of the Foxes can definitely be rated positively. Leicester have scored 49 goals in 37 games this season, which puts them in joint tenth place with Aston Villa. Nevertheless, Dean Smith’s team has already failed to score twelve times.

One player in particular stands out in Leicester City’s attacking line-up and that is James Maddison. The ten-man has ten goals and nine assists this season, making him the team’s top scorer. A departure in the summer therefore seems almost certain, with teams such as Arsenal FC, Newcastle United and also Tottenham Hotspurs interested in signing him.

Too fragile defensively

The hosts have conceded 67 goals in 37 games this season and boast one of the weakest defences in the Premier League. Bournemouth, Leeds United and Southampton are the only three teams in the English top flight to concede more goals. The Foxes were only able to keep a clean sheet seven times.

Before the all-important match against West Ham, however, it is worthwhile for Foxes fans to take a look at their home record. At home, Leicester have only had to get the ball out of their own goal 26 times and are much better than away from home. This therefore accounts for only 39% of all goals conceded.

West Ham – Statistics & current form

West Ham United are currently in 14th place in the highest English division and have thus clearly missed their own targets. The Hammers only took 40 points from 37 games and had to fear for their relegation for a long time. The gap to the relegation zone is now nine points, so that the 38th matchday is hardly relevant for David Moyes’ team. The focus of the visitors is therefore clearly on the final of the UEFA Conference League. On 07.06.2023, the Londoners could rescue a season that has been messed up until then and still enter the Europa League.

A real goalscorer is missing

The Hammers have scored just 41 goals in 37 league games this term, putting them in 13th place league-wide, so it’s no wonder that David Moyes’ side have gone 13 times without scoring a goal of their own – that’s 35% of all games.

This poor figure is also due to individual quality, with top scorers Said Benrahma and Jarrod Bowen scoring just six goals in the league. New signing Gianluca Scamacca’s performance was particularly disappointing. The Italian centre-forward arrived from Sassuolo for €36 million before the season and has only managed three league goals.

Solid defensively

The visitors have conceded 53 goals in 37 games this season and are therefore no more than solid. The team around superstar Declan Rice has also only managed to keep a clean sheet nine times and already conceded two goals against Leicester City in the first leg.

If we look at the statistics away from home, a zero on the last matchday seems rather unlikely. West Ham United conceded 29 goals in 18 away games and won only three. The Hammers will also be sparing a number of players ahead of the all-important final to avoid the risk of injury.

Leicester – West Ham Direct comparison / H2H-balance

The direct comparison between the two teams goes narrowly to the visitors. West Ham United have won 55 duels against Leicester, while 34 games have ended in a draw and the hosts have only managed to pick up 51 victories. However, the Foxes won the last encounter and will therefore be very motivated going into this decisive match. For this reason, our prediction between Leicester and West Ham points clearly in the direction of the home team. We think an away win for the Hammers is unlikely because of the starting position.

Leicester – West Ham Tip

We play the tip “Leicester City win a half” between Leicester and West Ham. The hosts, as mentioned several times, have their backs against the wall and will have to risk everything sooner or later. Even if they go behind early, the chances are therefore good that the Foxes will at least equalise. Therefore, winning one of the two halves of the game seems quite realistic. The home side’s squad certainly has enough quality to overcome the visiting team – especially because WHU will rotate in one position or another.

Alternatively, between Leicester and West Ham, we recommend the odds for “Double Chance Leicester City” in conjunction with under 4.5 goals. Given the poor away record and the starting position, we find it very hard to imagine an away win for the Hammers. A goal festival is not to be expected either, as the visitors rarely bring the necessary penetrating power and tend to rely on their defensive work. In the first leg, the Foxes won 2-0 and a similar result seems quite conceivable on Sunday.