Will Leipzig create chances in Breisgau again?
Christian Streich will only be on the sidelines at Europa-Park-Stadion four more times as head coach of SC Freiburg. The first of these four remaining matches is by far the toughest on paper. RB Leipzig, a Champions League contender, will visit the Breisgau on Saturday afternoon. Sport-Club have set themselves the goal of winning a competitive match against the central city side for the first time since 2019 and taking revenge for the 3-1 defeat in the first leg.
However, coach Marco Rose’s charges are also aware of the importance of this game. After the sobering 0-0 draw at home to Mainz 05 the previous week and Dortmund’s surprising away win in Munich, the gap to the top four has already grown to three points. From RB’s point of view, another slip-up should be avoided as a matter of urgency. If we believe the betting odds ahead of the rematch of the 2022 cup final between Freiburg and RB Leipzig, then the chances of an away win are pretty good. On the three-way market, 1.70 is offered as the maximum odds for the fifth-placed team to win the treble.
It is also conceivable that the fans will get to see a lively game with both sides playing offensively. In particular, the last home match results of Streich’s eleven are impressive, which is why betting on over-goals between Freiburg and RB Leipzig will certainly find a place on many betting slips. You can find an extensive range of goal bets at Interwetten, for example. The Austrian bookmaker also offers an attractive deposit bonus of up to 100 euros
Freiburg – Statistics & current form
An exciting final spurt awaits SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga. The Breisgau side are currently in eighth place, but should at least finish in seventh position, which will in all likelihood qualify them for the 2024/25 Conference League. The southern Germans may even be able to knock Eintracht Frankfurt off sixth place.
In order to give coach Streich a fitting farewell and present his successor Julian Schuster with a place in the international competition, Sport-Club must build on their performance from the previous week. The Black Forest side deservedly won the away game in Mönchengladbach 3:0 to record their second away win in a row. For the first time in the 2024 calendar year, keeper Atubolu kept a clean sheet. However, whether the SCF defense can also hold its own against the powerful RB offense must be critically questioned in view of the impressions of the second half of the season so far
Freiburg’s defensive vulnerability remains the big issue at home
In fact, only bottom-placed Darmstadt have conceded more goals in ten games in the second half of the season than Freiburg, who have conceded two or more goals in their last five home matches alone. Incidentally, the 2022 cup finalists have never conceded at least two goals in six consecutive first division matches. It is quite possible that this streak will be broken at the weekend, as we are not averse to predicting that the visitors will score at least once in both halves of the match between Freiburg and RB Leipzig due to their anything but stable defensive performances.
To make matters worse on Saturday, the top-ranked side have not been able to do much with their home advantage of late. Quite the opposite: Streich’s side have now gone four BL home games without a win (0-2-2) and, as already mentioned, have conceded just as many goals as in their previous nine matches at home.
At the same time, however, it must be noted that the SCF attack itself is always good for goals. Only in two of the last 20 BL matches have the Breisgau side failed to score. Four times in a row they scored two or more goals. In all second-round matches involving the Europa League round of 16 finalists, the bet on the over 2.5 would have gone through. Incidentally, this is also thanks to Michael Gregoritsch, who now has nine scorer points and has been involved in a goal every 54 minutes in the last six matchdays (three goals, two assists). Goalscorer bets on the Austrian international, which are also offered in the Oddset app, for example, could therefore be an additional tip.
Predicted Freiburg line-up:
RB Leipzig – Statistics & current form
No other Bundesliga team in the top five has such a poor relationship between effort and return as RB Leipzig. That was once again made abundantly clear in the previous week. The Saxons fired 23 shots in their home match against FSV Mainz 05. 63% possession, twelve (!) corners and an xG value of 2.94 underlined their dominance, which once again could not be converted into a win. Coach Marco Rose’s team had to settle for a goalless draw and thus missed the chance to put pressure on BVB ahead of the top-of-the-table clash between Bayern and Dortmund.
Lois Openda, who has taken the most shots in the Bundesliga so far behind Harry Kane and also has the second most big chances to his name, is symbolic of RB’s proliferation of chances. Although 19 goals from 27 games is logically not a bad figure, the Belgian new signing could definitely have scored more. However, given that there is no shortage of quality and the Central City side have only failed to score four times this season anyway, it can be assumed that the reigning cup winners will hit back with a good attacking performance on Saturday
Can RB take an example from the last few away games?
Another statistic that justifies a Freiburg vs RB Leipzig prediction of a few goals relates to the number of away games played. Since a 1-0 win in Mönchengladbach on matchday five, Rose’s side have conceded at least one goal in ten consecutive away matches in the Bundesliga. In eight out of ten cases, the prediction of over 2.5 would have come true. Incidentally, a whopping 25 goals were scored in Leipzig’s last five away games, an average of exactly five per match.
Finally, it should be noted that the Champions League contenders, who would probably go all out for victory in the final stages in the event of a draw given their starting position, have a loss that should not be underestimated. Yussuf Poulsen will not be available due to a thigh injury.
It will therefore be all the more important for Openda, Sesko, Olmo, Xavi and Co. to develop the enthusiasm they showed in the last two away games in Cologne (5:1) and Bochum (4:1). Should this happen, the combined bet on an away win including goals conceded is definitely within the realms of possibility. In the Bwin app, a proud 2.85 is offered for this, which new customers can also play with the Bwin bonus.
Predicted line-up of RB Leipzig:
Freiburg – RB Leipzig head-to-head comparison / H2H result
Only a few Freiburg players in the current squad know the feeling of beating RB Leipzig. Sport-Club have failed to win any of their last ten head-to-head meetings against the club from the central city. The Breisgauers’ last win against the Saxons dates back to October 26, 2019, when Leipzig were still coached by Julian Nagelsmann. The first leg of the current season ended in a 3:1 win for the reigning cup winners, who struggled for a long time and only turned the game in their favor with a double strike from Openda and Baumgartner in the final quarter of an hour. Xavi Simons had previously put the hosts in front and Merlin Röhl equalized to make it 1:1 at the interval
Freiburg – RB Leipzig tip
After the immensely important 3:0 away win in Gladbach, Freiburg Sport-Club are finally looking to cause problems for a top team. This is exactly what they have failed to do so far this season. Of the possible 27 points that could have been scored in nine matches against the top five teams in the German top flight to date, the Breisgauers have only managed one (0-1-8). They have also conceded a whopping 28 goals, an average of more than three per match.
However, this is by no means the only reason why the odds between Freiburg and RB Leipzig are quite clearly in favor of the visitors. Another problem is the vulnerability of the SCF defense, which has conceded at least two goals in five consecutive home matches and is generally the second-weakest defense in the second half of the season. The next Waterloo awaits Atubolu, Ginter and co. against the Central City side, who have been in a scoring mood away from home recently
However, it should not be forgotten that the home side are always good for goals during the farewell tour for their cult coach. Streich’s last home games were all very high-scoring, as were the Rose team’s most recent guest appearances. We are therefore not taking any big risks and instead recommend betting on the over 2.5 in the chasing duel between Freiburg and RB Leipzig, which – also in view of the odds – we are very confident in betting eight units.
Should the Saxons take three points from the south, we will turn our attention to the top match between Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart from 6:30 p.m.
